Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I know that some people are defending Elon Musk because they can't see him being anything short of perfect but this was is absolutely going to be a sanctions violation if they are being exported to Russia...but if you can just turn off and on the ability if you can geofence certain areas as elon musk did with crimea then you can damn well do that certainly with luhansk and uh zaparizhia or blasts right"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update on the war in Ukraine. He is recording the video, on February 11th 2024, from a secure location in Ukraine using a VPN.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Figures
🎦 00:28-03:12⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian General Staff figures report significant Russian personnel losses (930), as well as the destruction of 12 tanks, 14 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs), and 16 artillery systems. He notes that these figures, released earlier in the day, should be interpreted with caution. He emphasizes the dire shortage of artillery ammunition faced by Ukrainian forces, highlighting the impact this has on their ability to engage Russian targets effectively.
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Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 03:12-05:33⏩
Jonathan notes that, while Russia's equipment losses generally exceed Ukraine's, this is likely due to Russia's offensive posture and greater deployment of equipment. He observes that Ukrainian forces tend to rely on personnel, artillery, mortars and increasingly drones, for defence, given their limited resources. Jonathan analyses visually confirmed equipment losses from military analyst Andrew Perpetua's Twitter feed. He casts doubt on the inclusion of a Ukrainian drone as a significant loss. He questions whether the destruction of a Swedish Stridsvagn 122 tank, a variant of the Leopard 2A5, was solely attributable to FPV drone strikes, citing Andrew Perpetua's observation that such drones often target already-disabled vehicles. According to Andrew Perpetua's data, other Ukrainian losses include a T-72 tank, another unidentified tank and other equipment of unclear value. Russian losses include an S-350 air defence system, immobilised in a minefield. While a significant loss, most Russian losses comprised trucks and civilian vehicles targeted by Ukrainian drones.
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First Confirmed Loss of US Supplied HIMARS
🎦 05:33-06:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the first confirmed loss of a US-supplied M142 HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. Images depict the system being loaded onto an Antonov An-124 Ruslan cargo plane, having sustained shrapnel damage, though not a direct hit. Jonathan suggests the damage is minimal and speculates that the system is being returned to the US for repairs. While representing a loss to Ukrainian forces in the short term, its removal from the frontline is not considered irreparable.
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Drone Attacks in Ukraine
🎦 06:22-08:12⏩
Jonathan reports a significant Russian drone attack involving 45 Shahed drones launched from Crimea. Ukrainian air defences successfully intercepted 40, a success rate Jonathan considers impressive. The fate of the remaining five drones remains unknown, though Moldovan authorities later reported finding fragments of a Shahed drone in their territory. This incident has heightened concerns in Moldova, prompting a state of high alert and the scrambling of Romanian fighter jets. Jonathan shares his personal experience of frequently hearing air raid sirens in Zaporizhzhia City, emphasizing their normalcy for Ukrainian residents. He also reports the shelling of a medical facility in Kherson by Russian artillery, resulting in damage to the building and heating system but, fortunately, no casualties.
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Ukrainian Drone Downed in Bryansk
🎦 08:12-09:06⏩
Jonathan discusses images of Russian engineers examining the wreckage of an unidentified Ukrainian drone system downed in Bryansk. According to open-source intelligence group Astra Intel, the drone, described as a strategic bomber UAV, exhibits similarities to a jet engine-powered model observed recently. Its downing in Russian territory is considered indicative of Ukraine's capacity to out-innovate Russia's military industry. The incident has fuelled speculation about potential US provision of long-range drones to Ukraine, a development Jonathan alluded to in earlier updates. He highlights the significance of Ukraine's ability to produce a wider array of drones than previously observed.
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New Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine
🎦 09:06-09:41⏩
Jonathan reports the appointment of Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as the new commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, a role previously held by Oleksandr Syrskyi before his elevation to Commander-in-Chief. Jonathan suggests that viewers may hear more from Pavlyuk in future updates, particularly concerning Institute for the Study of War battlefield reports.
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Russian Disinformation Campaign targets Syrskyi
🎦 09:41-10:36⏩
Jonathan reports a warning from Andriy Kovalenko, newly appointed head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, regarding a Russian disinformation campaign. The campaign aims to undermine trust in the Ukrainian defence forces by falsely portraying Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi as a Russian operative. While details of Syrskyi's alleged Russian connections are unclear, the disinformation campaign seeks to exploit any perceived vulnerabilities. Jonathan cautions viewers to be wary of such narratives, which play directly into Russia's strategic objectives.
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Russian Forces Using Starlink
🎦 10:36-12:28⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over confirmed reports of Russian forces systematically using Starlink terminals. This revelation, supported by Ukrainian intelligence intercepts, raises questions about potential sanctions violations if the terminals were exported directly to Russia. Jonathan acknowledges the possibility of third-party intermediaries obscuring the supply chain, making it difficult to hold companies like Starlink accountable. However, he argues that Starlink, led by Elon Musk, has a moral obligation to geofence Russian-occupied territories, thereby disabling the terminals' functionality in those areas. Jonathan criticizes Musk's previous decision, early in the war, to deactivate Starlink over Crimea to prevent Ukrainian attacks on Russian naval vessels, a move widely deemed controversial. He contrasts this with Musk's apparent reluctance to take similar action against Russian forces operating in Ukraine.
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Russian Banks Record Profits
🎦 12:28-13:17⏩
Jonathan reports record profits announced by the Russian Central Bank, a claim met with jubilation among the Russian political elite eager to project an image of economic resilience in the face of Western sanctions. Jonathan advises caution in interpreting these figures, suggesting that artificial buoyancy, propped up by government intervention, may mask underlying vulnerabilities. He suspects that Russia may be rapidly depleting its reserves to maintain this facade, potentially leading to dire economic consequences in the long term.
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Russian Healthcare Crisis
🎦 13:17-14:09⏩
Jonathan discusses the detrimental impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on its already-struggling healthcare system. Citing a UK Ministry of Defence update, he reports that 2% of Russian doctors and medical staff have fled the country, a seemingly small figure that translates into a significant loss of personnel, especially given the healthcare sector's role as a major employer. He emphasizes that a 2% reduction in staff within a national healthcare system like the UK's National Health Service (NHS) would be catastrophic. Compounding this exodus is the conscription of 3,000 medical professionals into the military, exacerbating the chronic shortage of doctors and nurses across Russia.
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Ukraine's Worst Military Crisis Since Battle for Kyiv?
🎦 14:09-15:22⏩
Jonathan highlights the assessment of Paul Ronzheimer, deputy editor-in-chief of the German tabloid newspaper BILD, who characterized the current situation as Ukraine's worst military crisis since the battle for Kyiv. Ronzheimer, after visiting the front line near Bakhmut, described a palpable sense of uncertainty and frustration. Jonathan concurs with this assessment, drawing on his own experiences in Ukraine. He attributes the dire situation to the chronic ammunition shortages that have plagued Ukrainian forces for the past four months. He reiterates the urgent need for increased military aid, emphasizing the critical shortage of boots on the ground.
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Difficulties Sanctioning Third Party Countries
🎦 15:22-16:37⏩
Jonathan cites a Kyiv Independent report in which Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, acknowledges the difficulties in imposing sanctions on third countries aiding Russia's war effort. Jonathan draws parallels with the challenges of holding companies like Starlink accountable for their terminals ending up in Russian hands through convoluted supply chains. He points out the complexities of tracing equipment sold through multiple intermediaries, with seemingly legitimate transactions masking the ultimate destination. He concludes that, while geofencing offers a potential solution for technologies like Starlink, addressing the broader issue of third-party sanctions evasion remains a significant challenge.
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Russia's Ski Track Marathon
🎦 16:37-17:20⏩
Jonathan shares footage of the start of Russia's ski track marathon in Khimki, on the outskirts of Moscow, criticizing the regime's politicization of sports. He references sports commentator Tim White's staunch stance against the International Olympic Committee's refusal to ban Russian athletes from the Olympics. Echoing White's sentiments, Jonathan condemns the use of the letter "Z" as a pro-war symbol, denouncing its Nazi connotations.
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Wrap Up
🎦 17:20-17:20⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He signs off and lets viewers know he will speak to them soon.
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