Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The battle for Chasiv Yar is a litmus test for both sides. Losing control of it will have dire results for Ukraine. Failure to capture Chasiv Yar on time would raise doubts about Russia's ability to seize Donbass."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:39⏩
Jonathan kicks off the update with news about his son's football practice, his delicious Anzac cookies and a discussion on artillery shell usage. He mentions General Cavoli's statement that Russians are firing artillery at a 5:1 ratio compared to Ukrainians, which could rise to 10:1 soon.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Artillery Ammunition and Civilian Infrastructure
🎦 00:39-02:45⏩
Jonathan talks about the discrepancy in reported Ukrainian artillery usage due to various aid initiatives and stockpile management. He finds it interesting that a US Deputy Secretary of Defense classified Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries as targeting civilian infrastructure, which contradicts the American military's own Law of War manual.
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Understanding the Map and Defensive Lines
🎦 02:47-05:06⏩
Before diving into specific areas, Jonathan explains the importance of understanding the map, emphasizing that the lines represent established Russian defensive lines, not the fluid frontline. He points out that grey zones exist where fighting is ongoing, but they aren't represented on the map for clarity's sake.
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Southern Front: Crimea to Vymka
🎦 05:06-06:42⏩
Jonathan reports no changes in Crimea. He notes minor Russian gains near Vymka along the railway line but highlights the slow pace of their advance, taking nine months to cover three kilometres.
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Bakhmut Front: Chasiv Yar Under Pressure
🎦 06:42-16:06⏩
• While no mapping changes are shown, Jonathan describes intense Russian pressure in the Bakhmut area, particularly around Chasiv Yar. • He analyses Tatarigami's thread, which calls Chasiv Yar a "litmus test" for both sides. • Jonathan disagrees that losing Chasiv Yar would be disastrous for Ukraine, but acknowledges it would be a significant challenge, pushing the front closer to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. • He points out Chasiv Yar's geographical advantages for defence: higher ground and natural barriers like a canal, marshes, and rivers. • He reviews recent fighting in the easternmost areas of Chasiv Yar and the importance of the canal district. • Jonathan is surprised to learn that the canal may be more easily traversable than he initially thought due to low water levels, meaning it's not as strong a defensive position as he'd assumed. • He expresses alarm over reports of Russian Su-25s operating with near impunity over Chasiv Yar, highlighting a concerning lack of Ukrainian air defence in the area. • He cites Front Intelligence Insight's analysis of recent Russian assaults in Chasiv Yar, revealing both Russian success in exploiting a mine-free route and high casualties inflicted by Ukrainian defenders. • Jonathan reads from a concerning report highlighting delays in Ukrainian fortification building, shortages in Western supplies, and the overwhelming Russian numerical advantage.
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Donetsk Front: Avdiivka Salient and Krasnohorivka
🎦 17:05-26:00⏩
• Jonathan reports significant Russian gains along the Avdiivka salient, with Deep State, Surat, and Perpetua maps all showing Russian advances. • He specifically highlights gains near Novokalynove, the Pervomaiske area, and Semenivka. • He notes a concerning advance near Tonenke, where Russians captured a trench system, and another large advance south of Avdiivka, covering five kilometres in a few days. • Jonathan shifts focus to Krasnohorivka, where Russian activity has intensified. He praises the Ukrainian defence of Nevelske and Pobjeda, stalling a wider Russian flanking manoeuvre. • He describes the Russian strategy as a "pivot north" after failing to exploit Pobjeda, resulting in a full-frontal assault on Krasnohorivka. • He expresses concern over high Ukrainian losses and the potential for Krasnohorivka to become a major battleground, citing reports of heavy fighting and the White Angels evacuating civilians.
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Southern Zaporizhzhia Front: Novomykolaivka and Robotyne
🎦 26:00-27:08⏩
• Jonathan reports small Russian gains in the middle of Novomykolaivka according to Deep State maps. • He addresses the conflicting reports about Robotyne, with Ukrainian officials denying Russian presence despite Surat Maps showing partial control. • He notes a significant discrepancy between Andrew Perpetua's and Surat Maps' control lines (over 2km), suggesting a large grey zone in southern Robotyne where the situation is unclear.
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Wrap up
🎦 27:08-27:21⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, mentioning he hasn't reviewed the Institute for the Study of War report today due to the school holidays. He thanks viewers for watching and says goodbye.
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