Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The longer the GOP support Viktor Orbán and hold him up, and the longer, like Tucker Carlson treats him as some kind of demigod, the more the EU gets divided, helped by the rhetoric from the US."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:05⏩
Jonathan introduces the video as the first of the 26th of December, which is Boxing Day in the UK. He mentions he is a little bit worse for wear after the Christmas festivities.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses (General Staff Figures)
🎦 00:05-00:15⏩
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses on the previous day:
- 1,540 personnel lost (very high)
- 2 tanks lost (much lower than usual)
- 10 armoured personnel vehicles lost (half the daily average)
- 24 artillery systems lost (above the daily average)
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system lost
- Many drones and cruise missiles lost (from the Christmas Day strike)
- 63 vehicles and fuel tanks lost
- Jonathan notes that the loss of anti-aircraft warfare systems is good news for the Ukrainians.
Russian Losses (Andrew Perpetua's List)
🎦 00:16-00:40⏩
Jonathan presents Andrew Perpetua's list of Russian losses from 25th December, highlighting the differences between these stats and the General Staff figures.
- 80 Russian personnel lost (confirmed by camera footage)
- Ukrainian losses are about half of Russian losses
- Lower numbers for both sides - possibly reflecting a downtick in equipment being lost (other than personnel).
Ukrainian losses:
- 1 Leopard 2A4 abandoned
- 2 tanks damaged, 1 abandoned
- 2 infantry fighting vehicles lost (including 1 Bradley destroyed)
- 1 F-103 Spartan (UK-provided APC) destroyed
- 1 M113 abandoned
- 1 MTLB damaged
- 3 MRAPs irretrievably lost (Max Pro Senator Kozak)
- 2 Patroland cruisers destroyed
- 2 ATVs lost
- Fairly bad ratio for abandoned and destroyed to damage, but not that much equipment lost
Russian losses:
- Combat asset losses: around a 2:1 ratio in total compared to Ukrainian losses
- Artillery: including a destroyed BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system (good news for the Ukrainians)
- 11 tanks (6 abandoned or destroyed)
- 5 infantry fighting vehicles (all BMPs, all destroyed or abandoned)
- 1 armoured fighting vehicle
- 6 APCs and infantry mobility vehicles (5 out of 6 destroyed or abandoned)
- Several trucks, ATVs, Desert Cross 1000 S3s, and civilian vehicles
- Jonathan concludes that nothing too critical was lost for either side, but Russians are losing quite a lot of tanks. Ukrainians are losing Bradleys at a consistent rate, showing they are being used and will need replacing.
Russian Rehabilitation Centre numbers - a mistake?
🎦 00:41-00:52⏩
Jonathan discusses a Russian announcement claiming 600,000 Russian soldiers were in a rehabilitation centre, which he believes is a mistake.
- He reasons it's highly unlikely for a single centre to accommodate that many people.
- It's more probable that 600 wounded soldiers are undergoing rehabilitation in that centre.
- The announcement had initially excited some, suggesting a significant omission regarding the scale of Russian wounded, but this is unlikely.
Russian Equipment Destroyed in the Lyman Direction
🎦 00:53-00:56⏩, 00:57-01:05⏩
Jonathan reports on footage showing the destruction of Russian equipment in the Lyman direction.
- A tank and an infantry fighting vehicle were first hit by mines and then finished off by drones from the 63rd Brigade.
- Russians are still advancing, and Jonathan acknowledges the need for a map update.
Ukrainian HIMARS Strike on Russian 810th Marine Brigade Command Centre
🎦 01:05-01:15⏩, 01:15-01:37⏩, 06:43-06:50⏩, 06:51-07:17⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on the command point of the Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade in Luhove, Kursk Oblast, which was housed in a five-story building.
- Russian bloggers confirmed the attack, stating the Ukrainians "hit exactly where they needed to."
- The brigade's deputy commander, Lieutenant Colonel Selim Pashtov, was among the 17 Marines killed, most of whom were officers.
- Euromaidan Press reported that the brigade commander was killed, but other sources indicate it was the deputy commander along with 7 other officers.
- Jonathan concludes that this was likely a high-value strike, confirmed by the Russians themselves.
Arson Attack on Former Military Enlistment Office in Russia
🎦 01:37-01:40⏩, 07:17-07:46⏩, 07:47-08:11⏩
Jonathan reports on an arson attack on a former military enlistment office in Russia.
- A 50-year-old man rammed his car into the building and set it on fire in the city of Khrushchev, Vladimir region.
- These types of incidents are reportedly common, with many similar attacks happening recently.
- Police claim the man was a victim of Ukrainian scammers.
- Jonathan finds it to be a bit of a cop-out but is curious about the potential impact of such scams on the Russian population.
- He notes a high frequency of similar activity, reminiscent of earlier incidents around the time of mobilization.
Russian Claims of Terrorist Attack on Ursa Major Cargo Ship
🎦 08:11-08:40⏩, 08:40-09:15⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian claims that the Ursa Major cargo ship sank due to a terrorist attack.
- Russians allege three explosions occurred on the starboard side, causing it to sink.
- Jonathan is unsure of the validity of the claim but acknowledges it could have been done by the Ukrainians.
- He emphasizes that the Russian claim doesn't necessarily mean it's the most likely or true explanation.
Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crash in Kazakhstan - Potential Russian Air Defence Strike
🎦 09:15-10:04⏩, 10:06-10:53⏩, 10:53-11:24⏩, 11:25-12:02⏩, 12:03-12:50⏩, 12:51-13:37⏩, 13:38-13:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Kazakhstan, with increasing evidence suggesting it was shot down by a Russian air defence system.
- The Centre for Countering Disinformation stated that the plane was shot down by Russian air defence.
- Shrapnel holes are visible along the fuselage and wings.
- Footage of the Embraer 190 shows markings resembling shrapnel or missile fragments.
- A survivor reported a mid-air explosion, while Russian authorities initially cited a bird strike.
- Shrapnel damage is evident along the entire fuselage, with holes in the tail, cabin, and life jackets.
- The plane had an erratic flight path before crashing.
- There is speculation that the plane was shot down by a nervous Russian air defence commander, possibly using a Buk, S-300, or Pantsir system in Chechnya or Dagestan.
- The damaged pods at the tail end rule out a bird strike.
- The plane crashed en route to Russia and may have been shot down by a Russian air defence system during a massive Russian aerial attack against Ukraine on 25th December.
- The aircraft attempted to land in Grozny, Russia, twice but was denied permission due to ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes in the area.
- This aligns with reports of a drone being shot down in Grozny and other strikes in the area.
- The pilots reported multiple system failures, including GPS, control systems, and hydraulics, after experiencing what they initially thought was a bird strike.
- The plane encountered problems over the Naruski district of Chechnya, which houses military installations, including air defence systems.
- This district contains a motorized rifle brigade equipped with the Bern-LT air defence system and Pantsir missile systems.
- There were 67 people on board (5 crew members): 42 from Azerbaijan, 16 from Russia, 6 from Kazakhstan, and 3 from Kyrgyzstan.
- 38 people died, and 29 survived.
- A survivor reported that the plane tried to land three times in Grozny amid heavy fog and that there was an explosion outside the plane on the third attempt before it crashed in Kazakhstan.
- Russia was reportedly shooting down Ukrainian drones over Chechnya at the time.
- Jonathan concludes that the evidence strongly suggests the plane was shot down by Russian air defence.
Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian-Controlled Tugboat in Crimea
🎦 13:57-14:23⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian-controlled ship, the Fedor Uryupin, in Chornomorske, northern Crimea, according to maritime expert H.I. Sutton.
- This appears to be another deliberate Ukrainian attack on a tugboat.
- Tugboats are important for assisting naval ships and other tasks.
- Ukrainians have previously targeted tugboats.
Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 14:23-14:28⏩, 14:28-14:47⏩
Jonathan discusses overnight drone and missile strikes, citing Tim White.
- Russia fired 31 long-range drones and no missiles.
- Ukraine's air defence shot down 20 drones, while 11 were either simulators or stopped by air defence.
- All 31 drones were intercepted in some way.
Russian Drone Attack on Nikopol Market
🎦 14:48-15:11⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian drone attack on the central market in Nikopol, injuring six people.
- The attack occurred on 26th December, during market hours, not overnight.
- The Ukrainian State Emergency Service reported the incident.
Ukrainian Attempted Attack on Baltimore Military Airfield in Voronezh
🎦 15:12-15:29⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian attempt to attack the Baltimore military airfield in Voronezh.
- Independent journalists in Russia confirmed debris damage in nearby villages.
- It's unlikely the airfield itself was hit.
- The Kremlin claims 23 drones were in the area.
Successful Ukrainian Attack on Rocket Fuel Manufacturer in Rostov Region
🎦 15:29-15:46⏩, 15:47-15:58⏩
Jonathan discusses a successful Ukrainian attack on a rocket fuel manufacturer in the Rostov region a week prior, according to Ukraine's military intelligence.
- This was the Kamensky chemical plant.
- There's been a noticeable increase in attacks behind the front line of Russia's war effort.
- Limited details are available about Ukrainian strikes.
Summary of Russian Actions on Christmas Day
🎦 15:58-16:39⏩
Jonathan summarises Russian actions on Christmas Day, citing Kendoz.
- Russia fired 70 missiles and over 100 drones into Ukraine, aiming to destroy the energy grid and freeze millions of Ukrainians in winter.
- They shot down a civilian airliner from Azerbaijan, killing 38 civilians, including children.
- Russian missiles violated Moldovan and Romanian airspace, where missiles came down (actually they came down in Ukraine but were in Moldovan and Romanian airspace for two hours).
US Response to Russia's Christmas Day Attack
🎦 16:39-16:56⏩, 16:57-17:09⏩
Jonathan reports on the US response to Russia's Christmas Day attack.
- President Joe Biden directed the Pentagon to continue its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
- This is a direct response to the Russian attack.
- Jonathan quotes a statement: "The Ukrainian people deserve to live in peace and safety."
- He notes a comment suggesting the response is "a little late."
- Jonathan is hopeful that the US can provide substantial aid in the next month.
Trump Envoy Keith Kellogg Condemns Russia's Christmas Day Attack
🎦 17:09-17:37⏩, 17:38-17:55⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump envoy Keith Kellogg's condemnation of Russia's Christmas Day attack on Ukraine.
- Kellogg stated, "Christmas is supposed to be a time of peace, but Ukraine has been brutally attacked."
- He called the large-scale attack on Christmas Day "wrong" and said, "The world is watching closely the actions of both sides."
- Kellogg asserted that "The United States is more determined than ever to bring peace to the region."
- Jonathan finds it positive that Kellogg is incensed by the attack.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk Criticizes Hungary's Viktor Orbán
🎦 17:56-18:45⏩, 18:46-19:35⏩
Jonathan reports on Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's criticism of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for praising Putin during Russia's Christmas Day attacks.
- Orbán called Putin an "honest partner" during the attacks.
- Jonathan expresses strong disapproval of the Trump administration's support for Orbán, calling him a "facilitator of genocide" for supporting Russia from within the EU.
- He criticizes the GOP's support for Orbán, stating that it divides the EU and is "deeply problematic."
- Jonathan labels Orbán a "dictator wannabe" and finds his comments during the Christmas Day attacks "despicable."
New Undersea Cable Severing Between Estonia and Finland
🎦 19:35-20:27⏩, 20:28-20:53⏩, 20:54-21:51⏩, 21:52-22:45⏩, 22:46-22:57⏩
Jonathan discusses another incident of undersea cable severing, this time involving the East Link 2 electricity cable between Finland and Estonia.
- This follows previous damage to cables between Finland and Germany, Lithuania and Sweden, and Sweden and Finland.
- Jonathan believes Russia needs to be held accountable for these acts of sabotage.
- The East Link 2 cable was severed, and earlier in November, damage was reported to other cables.
- A commenter mentions a new Nordic initiative to inspect ships leaving Russia's St. Petersburg port for insurance and environmental compliance, which could disrupt global shipping.
- Anton Gerashchenko suspects Russian involvement, noting that a Hong Kong vessel crossed East Link 2 and slowed down just before the cable broke.
- The ship, Eagle S, is registered in the Cook Islands but reportedly belongs to the Russian Shadow Fleet, according to Lloyd's List.
- Pekka Toveri and Amy Mackinnon report that three cables between Finland and Estonia appear to have been sabotaged, likely with Russian and Chinese involvement, yet there have been no consequences.
- Aoun Son, a Nordic osinter, identifies Eagle S as a likely suspect, comparing its movements to other saboteur vessels.
- Eagle S is currently stationary in international waters southwest of Helsinki.
- Someone points out that Starlink doesn't have undersea cables.
FSB Reportedly Prevents Assassination Attempts on Russian Defence Officials
🎦 22:58-23:17⏩, 23:18-24:08⏩, 24:09-24:46⏩
Jonathan reports on the FSB's claim of preventing assassination attempts on high-ranking officials in the Russian Ministry of Defence and their families.
- The FSB alleges that Ukrainian special services planned the assassinations.
- One official was to be targeted with a car bomb disguised as a power bank, delivered by an agent who transited through Moldova and Georgia.
- Another official was targeted with a bomb disguised as a document folder, with two Russian citizens tasked by Kyiv to deliver it.
- A Moscow resident who conducted reconnaissance on the officials' residences and workplaces was also detained.
- The components for the bombs were reportedly smuggled into Russia by Ukrainian special services.
Russian Concerns Over Recruitment and Propaganda
🎦 24:46-26:11⏩, 26:12-26:31⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian concerns over the recruitment of its citizens for sabotage and the need for counter-propaganda.
- Russian channels are proposing programs focused on pro-Russian propaganda on modern media platforms.
- They suggest showcasing stories of those recruited and deceived by the enemy to warn others.
- There's a call to engage young people in identifying channels of enemy propaganda and to reward teenagers for refusing to cooperate with the enemy.
- Regional authorities and NGOs should step up to help those in need and prevent them from being exploited by the enemy.
- Jonathan sees this as indicative of increased Ukrainian efforts and growing Russian concern about the targeting of young and old people.
Russian Inflation Hits Year High
🎦 26:32-26:47⏩, 26:48-26:53⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia's inflation has reached its highest level in nearly a year, driven by war spending and food price hikes, according to Rosstat and The Moscow Times.
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Russian Companies Increasingly Using Bitcoin to Bypass Sanctions
🎦 26:53-28:23⏩, 28:24-28:35⏩
Jonathan discusses how Russian companies are increasingly using Bitcoin and other digital currencies for international payments to circumvent Western sanctions, as reported by Reuters.
- Jonathan highlights the issue of Bitcoin being used as an unregulated international currency, potentially undermining the effectiveness of sanctions.
- He contrasts libertarian views on Bitcoin with the desire of governments to control economies strategically.
- He mentions the BRICS nations' attempt to create an alternative to the dollar and how Bitcoin could serve as an alternative international currency.
- Jonathan suggests keeping an eye on this development.
Wrap up
🎦 28:36-28:46⏩, 28:47-29:15⏩, 29:16-29:44⏩, 29:45-30:04⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support, especially over Christmas, and mentions that the fundraising campaign has reached 40,000 euros. He plans to drive out some of the vehicles in January. He also mentions a previous video about trucks for NAFO and Car for Ukraine. He's unsure about his video output for the day due to family commitments but hopes to release a mapping update. He mentions he has family round and will try and post another video at some point.
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