Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230920a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"To think where they started, the Russians, in terms of their mechanized equipment and where they are now, it's a big difference."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is splitting his frontline update into a separate video due to the amount of news to cover, especially with Zelensky being in the US and military aid discussions. He mentions having lots of tea, as usual for a Brit!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 520 Russian personnel lost, 7 tanks, 17 armoured personnel vehicles (heavy loss), 34 artillery systems (very high)
- Only a fraction of footage showing these losses is released on social media for various reasons
- 1 MLRS system, 37 drones, 32 vehicles/fuel tanks, 3 special equipment lost
- Russians are taking barrels off howitzers in storage to replace worn out barrels
- Ukrainians are also taking barrels from old SPGs in storage to use on others
Oryx Visually Confirmed Losses
- 16 Russian losses (mostly tanks) vs 2 Ukrainian (1 MiG-29 fighter damaged, 1 drone)
- 60% of Russian vehicles are in Ukraine, 40% in Russia near border as replacements
- Fewer replacement vehicles being transported in, indicating potential shortages
- Estimated Russia has 6 months of vehicles left before the war changes significantly
FPV Drone Footage
In a livestream, Andrew Perpetua and Constantine (a former Ukrainian fighter) discuss:
- Much of the FPV drone footage of strikes is not released publicly
- FPV drones are often one-way 'kamikaze' drones so footage is not always recorded
- Mavic drones are used to find targets and provide a video link for the FPV drones
- Estimates 40-60%+ of FPV drone videos are never made public as they are lost when the drone crashes
Other Updates
- Many videos of Ukrainians taking Russian POWs recently, anecdotally significant
- Two Russian S-400 air defence systems destroyed, one previously documented
- Rumours of major strike on Russian 7th Airborne Div HQ near Kherson with many officers killed
- Good footage of Ukrainian helicopter firing rockets at Russian positions
- Worrying footage of Russian Lancet drone damaging Ukrainian MiG-29 at airbase 65km from frontline, with a second Russian drone filming it
Ukrainian Air Defences
Ukraine claims 90% interception of Russian cruise missiles/drones and 80% of ballistic missiles. Kyiv has near 100% success but other areas are more vulnerable. Considered the most successful use of missile defence to date but Ukraine still needs more air defence assets according to the US. Overnight, 17 of 24 Russian drones were shot down coming from SE and N directions.
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Russian Air Attacks
Russia is still using aviation very effectively:
- 6 civilians killed in Kupyansk by guided bombs targeting evacuation vehicles
- Many frontline cities consistently targeted by aircraft, Iskander missiles, S-300 missiles
- Strike on Lviv train station destroyed 300 tons of humanitarian aid according to UN
Crimea and Russia Attacks
- Explosions reported in Feodosia (Crimean cargo port) and Simferopol district
- Video of Storm Shadow missile over Crimea despite Russian claims of shooting them all down
- Diesel fuel depot on fire near Sochi airport after loitering munition strike
Other News
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- Ukraine will demand reparations from Russia in The Hague
- MIT investigation suggests Kostiantynivka market was hit by Ukrainian SAM, not Russian S-300 as initially reported. Ultimately Russia still to blame for invading.
- Russian colonel arrested for stealing 21 tank engines worth millions of rubles
- CNN reports Ukraine may have attacked Wagner-backed militias in Sudan using drones
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Wrap up
Jonathan will cover more news in a second video and move the frontline update to a dedicated video. He signs off wishing everyone well as always.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No major parts of the transcript were unclear. A few minor queries:
What type of helicopter was shown firing rockets?
Was the Russian colonel arrested recently or earlier in the year?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract key information from the video transcript
Organize information into topics with appropriate subheadings
Summarize each topic concisely
Include relevant quotes, opinions and insights from Jonathan
Ensure British English spelling and grammar is used
Use XML tags to structure the summary
Highlight anything unclear from the transcript at the end
