Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"The more we talk about it, the more acceptable it becomes. And when they do get given F-16s, then Russia won't sound off as much because actually everyone's been saying it's going to happen for that long anyway."
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologizes for the delay in posting this update, as he was busy with family matters like getting lost trying to drive his son to a football match. He jokingly blames the FSB for hacking Google Maps to prevent random YouTubers from getting their children to matches.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The latest figures for Russian losses include:
- 680 liquidated personnel
- 4 tanks
- 4 APCs
- 5 artillery systems
- 4 anti-aircraft warfare systems (possibly including 2 recently rolled S-400s)
- 4 drones
- 5 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 3 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan notes the Ukrainians seem to be explicitly targeting artillery systems, anti-aircraft systems, and special equipment like radars and electronic warfare systems. 4 anti-aircraft systems in one day is significant, as the average has been less than 1 per day over the course of the war.
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Drone Attacks
Russia has increased drone attacks over the past week, with attacks occurring every night for the past 4 nights. 4 out of 5 Shahed drones were shot down in the latest attack. Jonathan questions the Russian tactic of sending small numbers each night rather than overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses with a mass attack.
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Russian Captives
There are reports of large numbers of Russian captives being taken recently, particularly in the Bakhmut area. The situation in Bakhmut is dicey, with Russians possibly interdicting a key highway to the north. Heavy Russian losses in deaths and casualties are also reported.
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Russian Equipment Losses
Footage is shown of a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system that fell off the back of a truck while taking a corner too quickly in Melitopol. This follows a similar incident with an S-400 system in recent days. While not permanently damaged, the vehicles are temporarily out of action. The driver of the truck is joked to be "staying well away from windows" to avoid punishment.
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Russian Bomb Drops on Belgorod
Another bomb, possibly an FAB-500, was dropped from a Russian bomber and found unexploded in Belgorod. A previous incident saw a bomb detonate after an 18-second delay due to the fuse used. Russian military blogger Sladkov claims Russia will soon be using 3-5km range glide bombs, with 30-40 aircraft taking part in bombing raids with a range of 40km. Jonathan sees this as a worrying development for Ukraine.
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Ukrainian Technicals
Footage is shown of a Ukrainian Ural-375 truck mounted with a 57mm autocannon. Such "technicals" are used by both sides in the conflict, usually consisting of a weapon system mounted on a civilian truck or SUV. The effectiveness of these improvised fighting vehicles is questioned.
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Ramstein 11 Meeting
The 11th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base did not result in major new aid announcements, as most necessary equipment for the upcoming counteroffensive has already been committed. Key outcomes:
- Ukraine's priority is now ground-based air defense systems
- Ukraine received approval to work with NATO's procurement agency
- The West has provided over 230 tanks and 1500 other armored vehicles to equip 9 Ukrainian brigades
- 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers are currently training in Germany, with 8,000 already completed and returned
- A Leopard 2 tank service center will be established in Poland
- Allies reaffirmed commitment to support Ukraine as long as needed
New Military Aid
- Latvia will transfer all its remaining Stinger MANPADS to Ukraine
- Spain will deliver 6 of 10 promised Leopard 2A4 tanks in the coming days, with 4 more to follow
- Canada announced a $39M aid package, including a $34.6M contribution to NATO for fuel
- Portugal will send 5 armored medical/rescue vehicles (3 M113s, 2 M577s)
While every contribution helps, Jonathan notes the numbers of vehicles being provided by smaller nations are very low compared to Ukraine's needs, especially considering expected losses in the counteroffensive. He contrasts this with the vast inventories of the US.
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Abrams Tank Deliveries
Despite initial estimates of a year or more before Abrams tanks would reach Ukraine, US officials now say they have expedited delivery and expect the tanks to be used in combat within a few months. The tanks will be delivered to Germany or Poland for Ukrainian crews to train on before deployment. This opens the possibility of larger numbers of Abrams being provided on an accelerated timeline, given the large US inventory.
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Russian Tank Production Woes
Russia is struggling to manufacture and refurbish modern tanks due to a shortage of key components, particularly high-quality ball bearings that were previously imported from the West. In 2020, Russia imported over $419M worth of bearings, with Germany being the largest supplier. Careful analysis suggests Russian factories are only producing a few dozen modern T-72/T-90 variants per month. This is forcing them to reactive 1950s/60s-era T-55 and T-62 tanks that have been in storage for decades. These obsolete models are easier to restore as they have fewer advanced components, but are vastly outmatched by Ukrainian tanks. A Kremlin source admitted the old tanks are a "resource saver and an opportunity to buy time."
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Sanctions on Russian Oil Shipping
The US sanctioned a major Russian oil shipping company, Gatik Ship Management, for violating the price cap mechanism. The India-based firm assembled a "shadow fleet" of 48 tankers last year to transport Russian oil to Asia, bypassing Western sanctions. The sanctions deprive Gatik's fleet of international insurance, which is dominated by Western firms, particularly Lloyd's of London. This makes it very difficult to continue operations, although some ports may bend rules for ships carrying cheap Russian crude.
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Protests Over Lula's Portugal Visit
Ukrainian supporters protested outside the Brazilian embassy in Lisbon against Brazilian President Lula's visit to Portugal. Lula has been accused of appeasing Russia and echoing their propaganda in his statements on the war. His stance seems to shift based on the audience, having made more pro-Russian comments while hosting Foreign Minister Lavrov in Brazil recently, then pivoting to a more pro-Western line after the visit.
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Proposed Expansion of Russia Sanctions
The US and allies are considering shifting to a presumption of denial for Russia exports, prohibiting all trade except for exempted categories. Currently, sanctions cover specific named products/sectors. The new approach would mean everything is banned by default unless whitelisted. This could severely impact the remaining $66B in Russia trade with Europe, the US, Canada and Japan. However, implementation faces obstacles, as it requires EU unanimity and risks corporate backlash and Russian retaliation. Even under existing sanctions, Russia has circumvented bans by importing Western components through third countries. Closing these loopholes is an increasing priority for the G7/EU.
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Wrap up
Jonathan apologizes again for the delay and plugs his upcoming frontline update video. He thanks the audience, calling them legends, but jokingly excludes the Russian bots.
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