Ukraine War Update NEWS: 3x AP's Equipment Loss Lists, Backlog Clearing
Table of Contents 📖
"Is it enough? Is it three to one? No it's not. But certainly just a mass of Russian equipment still being taken out".
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:41⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a late night video recorded at 1am Ukrainian time. He's going to clear a backlog of Andrew Perpetua loss lists from January 15th, 16th and 17th before catching up on more up to date news. He jokes that if viewers aren't interested in "geeky stats" they should skip this video.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
January 15th: Overview
🎦 00:41-01:02⏩
Jonathan starts by summarising the personnel losses from the 15th, 16th and 17th January:
- 15th January: 98 personnel losses
- 16th January: 127 personnel losses
- 17th January: 135 personnel losses
Looking at the equipment losses from January 15th, Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua seems to have missed the Ukrainian losses from the initial screengrab but that generally the Ukrainians are losing less than the Russians.
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January 16th: Ukrainian Losses
🎦 01:02-02:35⏩
Ukrainian losses for January 16th include:
- 1 x AS-90 (UK-provided self propelled gun) destroyed.
- 1 x M777 howitzer damaged
- 1 x M119 howitzer damaged
- 1 x D-30 howitzer damaged
- 1 x 2S1 Gvozdika (Russian) self-propelled howitzer destroyed
- 1 x Engineering vehicle destroyed
- 1 x Boat Damaged
- 1 x Leopard 2A4 tank destroyed (abandoned then hit by a Lancet drone)
- 1 x Leopard 2A4 tank abandoned
- Approximately 5 Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) destroyed including a captured MT-LB. Jonathan notes that this is old Soviet equipment so not a big concern
- 3 x M113 destroyed
- 1 x Stryker damaged
- 1 x Kozak damaged
- 1 x Humvee damaged
Jonathan notes that there have been quite a few Leopard 2 tanks lost over the last month which is a worry for the Ukrainians.
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January 16th: Russian Losses
🎦 02:35-05:01⏩
Russian Losses for January 16th include:
- 1 x 51P6 launcher for S-400 air defence system destroyed by GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System) - Jonathan notes that this is a "big loss"
- 1 x Tor-M1 short range air defence system destroyed
- 2 x Engineering vehicles destroyed
- 1 x Boat destroyed
- 1 x Ural truck with ZU-23 autocannon captured (from 2022 but only just clocked on the system)
- 4 x D-30 howitzers destroyed/abandoned
Jonathan points out that of the approximate 40 pieces of Russian equipment listed, all but two were destroyed or abandoned which is a "really bad ratio of losses". The remaining equipment losses included:
- Approximately 6 tanks (including T-80s)
- 1 x Tracked Gun
- A large number of BMP-2s, BMP-3s (Jonathan notes that he has been seeing more BMP-3s included in the lists in recent days - this is backdated information).
- 4 x Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFVs)
- Approximately 7 APCs (all destroyed)
- 1 x Truck (captured)
- A number of All Terrain Vehicles (ATVs)/quad bikes
- A number of motorcycles (abandoned)
Jonathan concludes that this was a bad day for the Russians, particularly the loss of the S-400 and Tor-M1.
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January 15th: Overview
🎦 05:01-05:40⏩
Jonathan realises that he presented the information in the wrong order! The information he has just presented was for January 16th, not 15th (oops!) He confirms that the losses for January 15th show a two to one ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses.
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January 15th: Ukrainian Losses
🎦 05:40-06:22⏩
Jonathan confirms that the Ukrainians are losing less than the Russians for January 15th. Ukrainian losses for January 15th include:
- 1 x Electronic Warfare System
- A number of artillery pieces:
- 1 x 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer damaged. Jonathan is surprised that more of these haven't been taken out given that production has increased.
- 1 x T-64 tank destroyed
- A small number of infantry fighting vehicles
- A few APCs including:
- 1 x Bushmaster MRAP destroyed (Australian)
- 1 x VAB APC (French)
- Jonathan notes that overall, the Ukrainian losses were "nothing too serious".
January 15th: Russian Losses
🎦 06:22-07:19⏩
Russian losses were substantially higher. They include:
- 1 x Osa short range air defence system destroyed
- A large amount of towed artillery:
- D-30 howitzers
- M-46 howitzers
- Approximately 8 tanks.
- Around 17 infantry fighting vehicles (almost all destroyed/abandoned) including:
- BMP-2s
- BMP-3s
- BMP-1s
- A large amount of civilian vehicles.
January 17th: Overview
🎦 07:19-07:32⏩
Moving onto the 17th January, Jonathan confirms that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is 2:1.
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January 17th: Ukrainian Losses
🎦 07:32-08:29⏩
Ukrainian losses for January 17th included:
- 1 x Command and Control vehicle
- 1 x M577 Command Vehicle (Jonathan thinks that this was lost on the 20th/21st).
- 1 x recovery vehicle
- A number of artillery pieces
- 5 x Infantry fighting vehicles (all BMPs) - Jonathan notes that it's interesting that these were old Soviet era vehicles and not newer Western provided equipment
- 1 x T-64 tank
- 3 x APCs
- A couple of M113s
- 1 x Captured MRAP
- 1 x Maxpro MRAP
- A couple of Maxpro MRAPs in other categories
- Some Western provided infantry mobility vehicles
- Some Civilian vehicles
January 17th: Russian Losses
🎦 08:29-10:44⏩
Jonathan describes the Russian losses on January 17th as "outstripping" those of Ukraine's but nothing of high value such as aircraft or air defence systems. Losses include:
- 2 x Command and Control systems damaged (by FPV drones in the summer but only just verified).
- A couple of engineering vehicles
- A few artillery pieces including a 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm self-propelled mortar
- Approximately 10 tanks including T-72s
- A number of "Track Garden Sheds" - Jonathan notes that 4 out of the 10 tanks were these improvised fighting vehicles which suggests that the Russians may be struggling to source enough APCs.
- 4 x Infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-2s and BMP-3s)
- The usual mix of civilian vehicles
- A number of motorcycles and Golf Buggies
Three day overview/Wider context
🎦 10:44-11:31⏩
Reviewing the three days, Jonathan summarises that the Russians have lost a considerable amount of equipment, notably some air defence systems. The Russians do seem to be able to keep supplying equipment including more self-propelled artillery from North Korea. They are also expecting more troops from North Korea which will be sent to Kursk.
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Concluding remarks
🎦 11:31-12:16⏩
Jonathan is encouraged that the Ukrainians are still destroying more equipment than they are losing (2:1) but acknowledges that ideally this ratio would be higher. He thanks viewers for their support and reiterates that he is aiming for 50,000 subscribers by the time he leaves Ukraine. He signs off by saying that he'll "maybe treat them to a vodka or something" to celebrate.
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