Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News

"If they had negligible effects, OK, we need to know that officially. The only reason you would hide that report is because it would have had more significant effect on the Brexit vote and the Brexit campaign than you would like to admit."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
This is the third news update of the day. Jonathan also did a live stream earlier to raise support for the Campaign for Ukraine, which is going very well. They are almost at 40% of the fundraising target for the third truck. The third truck will help other channels that are struggling to get fundraising done, as the ATP community are "amazeballs".

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Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong arrives in Kyiv

🎦 00:11-00:24⏩
The Australian Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, has arrived in Kyiv. Her arrival was announced by the Ambassador of Ukraine to Australia, Vasil Miroshchikhin (spelling corrected).

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Zelensky meets with NATO Chief Mark Rutte in Brussels

🎦 00:25-00:46⏩
Zelensky was scheduled to meet with NATO Chief Mark Rutte in Brussels. They have since met, and Jonathan has information teed up for tomorrow's military aid video. However, Mark Rutte has announced that NATO will not only supply weapons to Ukraine but also purchase Ukrainian-made weapons. Jonathan is unsure how this will work in practice, as NATO does not have the funding for this. It will likely be NATO nations purchasing weapons with guidance from NATO. Allies have also provided Ukraine with 19 air defence systems to protect critical infrastructure.

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Ursula von der Leyen: Bolstering Ukraine is a moral obligation and a strategic imperative

🎦 00:47-00:55⏩
Ursula von der Leyen has stated that bolstering Ukraine is not only a moral obligation but also a strategic imperative. She emphasised that the world is watching and that support for Ukraine must be ironclad. Jonathan notes that other nations are strengthening their support for Ukraine, but there are still challenges with countries like Slovakia, Hungary, and China.

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UK to help develop Ukraine's military industry in 2025

🎦 00:56-01:04⏩
The UK has announced that it will help develop Ukraine's military industry in 2025. Defence Minister John Healy stated that London will help Kyiv on the international stage to ensure that support for Ukraine does not stop.

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Support for Ukraine from other countries

🎦 01:04-01:22⏩
Jonathan highlights the support for Ukraine from various countries: Mark Rutte (NATO), Ursula von der Leyen (EU), the UK, Poland, potentially Germany if CDU wins and Friedrich Merz comes in, Italy, France (assuming the new government remains consistent), the Nordics, the Baltics, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. He notes that America could be a bit of an outlier. He also notes that Trump's incoming Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, will travel to Kyiv and European capitals in early January to focus on fact-finding and efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. He will not visit Moscow on this trip.

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Keith Kellogg contradicts Trump on Fox News

🎦 01:22-01:56⏩
Jonathan discusses a report on Fox News where Keith Kellogg, Trump's incoming Ukraine envoy, contradicts Trump's previous statements. The report mentions that Russia is losing up to 1,200 troops per day, which is significantly higher than what Trump claimed. Jonathan finds it interesting that Kellogg is coming out against Trump's words and believes Kellogg has a much better understanding of the situation. He highlights the difficulty of Kellogg's task, which is to correct Trump on his incorrect claims and strategy. Jonathan also mentions the internal dynamics within the potential Trump administration, with various individuals holding different views on Ukraine.

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Keith Kellogg: Trump will bring war to a conclusion in 2025

🎦 01:56-02:07⏩
Keith Kellogg states that he believes President Trump will execute his promise to end the war in Ukraine and that it will come to a conclusion in 2025. Jonathan questions whether he means 2024 or 2025, as Kellogg mentions a trip to Kyiv in January 2025. He suggests that Kellogg might be doing a bit of "Trump appeasement".

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Keith Kellogg interview on Fox News: Trip to Kyiv

🎦 02:07-02:22⏩
In an interview, Keith Kellogg discusses his upcoming trip to Kyiv in January. He mentions that the trip's details will come from the transition team but emphasises that it shows the energy of the new administration and President Trump's commitment to getting things done quickly, both before and after the inauguration.

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Keith Kellogg: Russian losses five times higher than Ukraine's

🎦 02:22-02:30⏩
Jonathan plays a clip where Keith Kellogg states that Russian losses are five times higher than Ukrainian losses. This is a direct contradiction of what Trump said, claiming they're taking equal casualties. Jonathan finds this fascinating and notes that Kellogg has much more credibility than Trump on this issue.

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Keith Kellogg interview on Fox News: Casualty numbers

02:30-03:02⏩

Return to top⤴️In the interview, Keith Kellogg, via the interviewer, mentions that after a thousand days of war, there are 350,000 to 450,000 Russian dead and 150,000 Ukrainian dead. Jonathan points out that this is about three times the casualty rate for Russians compared to Ukrainians, which contradicts Trump's previous statements. He emphasises that Kellogg and Trump are not on the same page regarding this issue and that someone needs to clarify the discrepancy. Jonathan suggests that either Kellogg is lying in line with U.S. strategy or Trump is being irresponsible and should not be making such public statements if they are inaccurate.

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Mick Ryan: Ultra-conservative wing of Republican party emboldened in demands to stop US funding for Ukraine

03:02-03:47⏩

Return to top⤴️Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general, is quoted in the New York Times, stating that since Trump's win, the ultra-conservative wing of the Republican party has been emboldened in its demands to cut off U.S. funding for Ukraine altogether. This means the political price of promoting war aid is getting steeper. Jonathan explains that previously, there was bipartisan support for Ukraine, but now the MAGA faction, which is anti-Ukraine, has become a louder part of the party. This puts pressure on other Republican lawmakers who would otherwise support Ukraine, making it more difficult to pass aid bills.

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Robert Habeck: Germany's reliance on Russian hydrocarbons an "epic historical miscalculation"

03:47-04:33⏩

Return to top⤴️Robert Habeck, the Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action in Germany, stated that it was an "epic historical miscalculation" to build Germany's prosperity on the promise of eternal friendly relations with Putin. This is a criticism of Angela Merkel's previous government, which relied heavily on Russian hydrocarbons and believed in changing Putin through trade (Wandel durch Handel). Jonathan offers some sympathy for Merkel, noting that it's easy to criticise with hindsight. He argues that at the time, there was a genuine belief that Putin could change and that Germany was benefiting from cheap oil and gas. However, the variable that was not well predicted was Putin himself, who became more power-hungry and dictatorial over time.

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Robert Habeck: Germany's export model a miscalculation

04:33-04:55⏩

Return to top⤴️Habeck also stated that Germany's faith in its export model was a miscalculation. As the third-largest economy in the world, 50% of Germany's growth was based on exports, making it particularly vulnerable when globalisation began to falter. Jonathan suggests that the miscalculation was largely due to Putin's actions and that while it's understandable to blame Merkel, it's important to understand the context of her decisions.

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Zelensky: No leader has the right to negotiate with Putin without Ukraine

04:55-05:19⏩

Return to top⤴️Zelensky has insisted that no leader in the world has the right to negotiate with Putin without Ukraine. He stated, "We have never delegated this mandate to anyone. We are victims. It would be unfair if everyone started talking about how the country should live." This is likely a response to Viktor Orbán's actions. Jonathan believes this statement is "absolutely on point".

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Viktor Orbán responds to Zelensky: "Take ceasefire proposal or leave it"

05:19-05:50⏩

Return to top⤴️Viktor Orbán responded to a report by Ukrainska Pravda, which quoted Zelensky saying Orbán has no leverage over Putin. Orbán tweeted, "We will not respond to any provocation. There is a ceasefire proposal on the table. Take it or leave it. It's your responsibility." Jonathan notes that this ceasefire proposal would likely be firmly supportive of Russia and its agenda, highlighting a growing chasm between Orbán and Ukraine and its allies. Jonathan also mentions that Orbán is becoming less popular in his own country, with the opposition party led by Peter Magyar gaining more support in the polls. The next elections are in 2026, but Jonathan suggests that Orbán might try to rig them, similar to what happened with Georgian Dream in Georgia.

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Ukraine studying European models of electoral legislation

05:50-06:15⏩

Return to top⤴️According to Politico, Ukraine is studying European models of electoral legislation, including electronic voting, with the aim of holding elections soon after the end of the war. Zelensky has mentioned this a couple of times. Jonathan wonders if Zelensky will run in these elections and how popular he will be, considering the potential for war-weariness among the population, even though he believes Zelensky has done an amazing job.

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Andrei Yermak: Peace talks with Russia only possible when Moscow runs out of resources

06:15-06:34⏩

Return to top⤴️Andrei Yermak from the presidential office stated that peace talks with Russia are only possible when Moscow runs out of resources. He said, "Real negotiations for a lasting peace will begin when the enemy no longer has the resources to continue the war." Jonathan agrees, stating that Russia is unlikely to be interested in negotiating unless they are backed against the wall. He emphasises the importance of allies providing Ukraine with as much help as possible so that they can start negotiations from a position of strength on the battlefield.

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Zelensky to French News: Trump knows about my desire not to rush to the detriment of Ukraine

06:34-07:06⏩

Return to top⤴️Christopher Miller from the Financial Times reports that Zelensky told French News, "Trump knows about my desire not to rush to the detriment of Ukraine." Zelensky added, "The country has long been fighting for its sovereignty, no matter how many presidents or prime ministers want to declare and enter the war. We are not going to just give up and surrender our independence." Jonathan sees this as a polite rebuttal or rebuke of Donald Trump, emphasising that Ukraine will not rush into unfavourable negotiations and has been fighting for its sovereignty for a long time.

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Robert Fico: Ukraine will not receive an invitation to NATO, will lose a third of its territory

07:06-07:30⏩

Return to top⤴️Robert Fico, the Slovak Prime Minister, stated that Ukraine will not receive an invitation to NATO and will lose a third of its territory. Jonathan sarcastically remarks on Fico's positive outlook for Ukraine. Fico is also set to discuss gas transit through Ukraine with the EU chief. Slovakia currently imports 3 billion cubic metres of gas per year through Ukraine from Russia's energy giant Gazprom and is seeking an alternative as Ukraine has said they will not continue the contract past 2024.

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Disinformation in Slovakia and Czechia

07:30-08:12⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan discusses the issue of disinformation in Slovakia and Czechia. He mentions a listener named Rob, whose wife, Denisa, is from the Czech side of the former Czechoslovakia. Rob highlighted the prevalence of disinformation in both countries, with a Russian-leaning older generation indoctrinated by the Soviet Union and a younger generation in Slovakia that is not as pro-West as in Czechia. They are susceptible to Russian propaganda, believing conspiracies about Zelensky and Ukraine, and have been fed anti-EU talking points similar to those used during the Brexit campaign.

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Russia's interference in Brexit

08:12-08:46⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan asserts that Russia underwrote the Brexit campaign in the same way they meddled in the 2016 US elections. He cites evidence from social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook and criticises the British government for refusing to release a report on Russian interference because it would undermine the Brexit election results. He calls for the release of this report to establish the truth about the extent of Russian influence. Jonathan argues that Russia is using the same tactics in places like Slovakia and Hungary to foment ultra-nationalist discord and destabilise Europe, suggesting that they could have had a greater impact by investing in troll farms and AI bots instead of invading Ukraine.

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UN passes resolution on human rights violations in occupied parts of Ukraine

08:46-09:23⏩

Return to top⤴️The UN has passed a resolution on human rights violations in the occupied parts of Ukraine. For the first time during a war, the document accuses Russia of a "war of aggression" and calls on Russia to withdraw all its armed forces from Ukrainian territory. While Jonathan sees this as a positive step, he is disappointed by the number of countries that voted against it (14) and abstained. The countries voting against were Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Eritrea, Mali, Niger, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Cuba, North Korea, China, Iran, Russia, and Nicaragua. Jonathan is particularly concerned about the growing pro-Russian sentiment in Africa and the large number of abstentions, including Serbia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and others, suggesting nefarious influence from Russia and China.

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Obedience in advance: US media and business leaders paying fealty to Trump

09:23-10:12⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan discusses the concept of "obedience in advance," as described by Timothy Snyder in his book "On Tyranny." He cites examples of US media and business leaders paying fealty to Trump, such as ABC News receiving $15 million in payments, and Jeff Bezos, the head of OpenAI, and Mark Zuckerberg each giving $1 million to Trump's inauguration. He also mentions a Financial Times article about Elon Musk considering donating to Reform UK, raising concerns about Musk's growing influence over English-speaking countries, technology, and defence industrial issues. Jonathan shares a conversation with his partner's daughter's father about Musk's "Bond villainous" power, including his control over satellites, contracts with NASA and the Department of Defense, and his influence on global politics.

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Elon Musk: Unbridled power

10:12-11:05⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan expresses deep concern over Elon Musk's "unbridled power," describing it as unprecedented in modern history. He argues that Musk's ability to influence people's minds globally through his control of satellites and social media is more problematic than the raw military power of historical figures like Hitler. He cites Musk's use of Twitter to enforce political change in various countries and the EU's efforts to regulate the platform due to disinformation and manipulation by state actors like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Jonathan concludes that Musk's power is deeply worrying and that he can affect people in a more fundamental way than even Hitler could.

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Trump sues Des Moines Register over election poll

11:05-11:57⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan discusses Trump's attempt to sue the Des Moines Register and pollster Ann Selzer over an outlier poll that showed Trump in trouble in Iowa. He notes that while the poll was statistically anomalous, Trump is still trying to sue the paper, similar to his attempts to sue ABC and George Stephanopoulos. However, the Des Moines Register is fighting back, unlike other media outlets and individuals who have paid fealty to Trump. Jonathan finds it interesting that a smaller local paper is standing up to Trump's bullying tactics.

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Vatnik Soup on Scott Horton

11:57-13:39⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan introduces a "Vatnik Soup" segment by Pekka Kallioniemi on Scott Horton, whom he describes as a "conservative libertarian" and "anti-Ukraine". Horton was previously on Piers Morgan with retired General Wesley Clark and Anna, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian, who was involved in Euromaidan. Jonathan did a reaction video to that appearance and plans to finish another one. Kallioniemi calls Horton a "Kremlin apologist" who blames the US for everything and sees nothing wrong with Putin's actions. Horton is part of the "Kremlinitarian movement" and the Mises Caucus, a pro-Kremlin group that has hijacked the real libertarians to help with Trump's re-election. Horton's "anti-war" stance is that countries like Russia can invade others, but their victims' allies should not help. He often condemns Putin and Assad but then shifts the blame to the US, claiming that Putin had to invade Ukraine because of US meddling. Horton falsely claims the US spent $100 million on a coup in Ukraine but doesn't explain why massive anti-Yanukovych and pro-EU protests erupted all over Ukraine. He also parrots Kremlin narratives about a US-sponsored coup and Ukraine being full of Nazis. Horton claims that Russia took Crimea without firing a shot, which Jonathan refutes. He is also accused of being a Putin appeaser and promoting Russia's "new superweapon," Oreshnik. Horton also denies human rights violations in Russia and the genocide against Ukrainians. He even suggested that Assad might be a better leader for Syria than al-Jolani and has befriended a Nazi apologist, Daryl Cooper. Jonathan criticises Piers Morgan for platforming Horton and other "vatniks" for ratings. He notes that Horton's wife, Larisa Alexandrovna, is Ukrainian and has a very different view of Russia, stating that "Russian occupation is worse than death." Jonathan concludes that Horton is as anti-war as Putin and lacks any actual expertise.

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Sherman Leader board game

13:39-14:25⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan mentions that he is campaigning for "car for Ukraine" and shares that he has been playing a solo board game called Sherman Leader, set in 1942 North Africa. He jokes about his geekiness and how he now spends his time talking about geopolitics and playing board games by himself, accompanied by a cup of tea. He shares that he won the first opening battle of the game.

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Wrap up

14:25-14:26⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan ends the video by encouraging viewers to help out with the campaign and saying, "Toodlepips."

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