Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"inaccurate maps that overestimate russian terrain control"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War Frontline update for 4th March 2024 and reminds viewers to refer to the map key if required.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Update
🎦 00:22-02:31⏩
Jonathan reports that the frontline has generally stabilised. A Russian military blogger, Syriac map, claims that Ukrainian forces have captured unspecified positions near Tabaivka (which contradicts information from other sources). Jonathan analyses the frontline in the vicinity of Krohmalne, Tabaivka, Sienkivka and the Oskil river, highlighting the challenges the Russians face to advance in this area.
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Lyman-Yampil Frontline Update
🎦 02:31-03:37⏩
There is a minor discrepancy between maps from Deep State map and Andrew Perpetua near Lyman and Yampil but generally no significant changes. Jonathan discusses footage of destroyed Russian equipment, including Desert Cross 1000 'golf buggy' vehicles being used by the Russians, and speculates this is due to the lighter vehicles being less likely to trigger mines, or it could indicate a shortage of armoured personnel carriers.
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Siversk Frontline Update
🎦 03:37-04:35⏩
Jonathan describes Russian advances south of Bilohorivka towards Siversk and analyses the challenges the Russians face due to the topography. He highlights the importance of the village of Zolotorivka to Ukrainian defences.
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Bakhmut Frontline Update
🎦 04:35-05:33⏩
Jonathan notes Syriac Maps is reporting Russian gains in the Ivanske village area but that ISW reports the situation as positional fighting with no confirmed gains for either side. He observes there has been a reduction in fighting in Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Northern Bakhmut and speculates this is because the Russians do not have the capacity to advance on all fronts.
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Avdiivka Frontline Update
🎦 05:33-10:52⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation in Avdiivka, where Syriac Maps has made changes to its maps, appearing to reverse earlier reported Russian gains in the area of Olivka and Berdychi, possibly suggesting a Ukrainian counter-attack. Jonathan observes that Syriac maps have not been updated to show the Ukrainian advances using blue polygons in the same way that they use red polygons to show Russian advances. Jonathan then compares information from different sources (including geolocated footage from NOAA reports) and concludes that the Russians have taken Tonenka. He discusses the use of inaccurate maps by the Russians, questioning whether these are inaccurate in terms of content (e.g. failing to accurately reflect what the Russians control), or geographically inaccurate.
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Novomykhaylivka Frontline Update
🎦 10:52-11:11⏩
Jonathan notes that all sources are reporting Russian gains in Novomykhaylivka.
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Use of Chemical Weapons
🎦 14:11-15:14⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from the Ukrainian commander of the Tavria group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, that Russian forces have used chemical weapons on nine occasions in the Novomykhailivka area.
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Velyka Novosilka Frontline Update
🎦 15:14-16:11⏩
Jonathan reports no changes on the front line in Velyka Novosilka or Robotyne, where there is positional fighting. He cites ISW reports that the Ukrainians are conducting a maneuvered defence and using remote mining to slow the Russian advances.
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Russian Military Shortcomings and Disinformation
🎦 11:11-13:46⏩
, 16:11-18:19⏩
Jonathan discusses the use of inaccurate maps by the Russians, questioning whether these are inaccurate in terms of content (e.g. failing to accurately reflect what the Russians control), or geographically inaccurate. He reads an extract from an ISW report that lower level Russian commanders are continuing to make false reports to Russian military commanders about successful and accurate Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions, and that Russian command continues to use inaccurate maps that overestimate Russian terrain control. He provides an example of a Russian opposition outlet video showing injured Russian servicemen who had been waiting for two days to be evacuated from a trench in Krynky, and had resorted to releasing a video appealing for help as they were out of food, water and were severely injured. Jonathan remarks on the irony that the Russians appear unable to evacuate their wounded, yet mobile phone signal in the area is still working. He speculates that Ukrainians may be reluctant to destroy mobile phone masts as they can use them to intercept Russian communications.
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Wrap up
🎦 18:19-18:29⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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