Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Hey, this is what freedom looks like in Russia. You're a liberal, are you? We're going to execute you. Why? Because our main thinker said that was a good idea."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first Ukraine War update of the day for the 25th August 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report - Russian Losses
🎦 00:17-02:08⏩
Jonathan provides the daily Ukraine General Staff report of Russian losses from the previous day. Jonathan notes that Russian personnel losses have been around the daily average for the last few days, with a slight dip in AFV losses, but there has been a significant increase in the number of artillery systems lost (double the daily average). Losses for vehicles and fuel tanks were also high at 92. Jonathan notes that there are a lot of motorcycles being used by the Russians on the front line. There is no visually confirmed loss list from Andrew Perpetua today.
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Ukraine Recovers Damaged Tunguska Air Defence System
🎦 02:08-05:03⏩
Footage has emerged of Ukraine recovering a damaged Tunguska air defence system using an armoured recovery vehicle in the Kursk region. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians have been placing air defence systems close to the front line, probably as a tactic to stop Russia getting air superiority (as discussed by Justin Bronk on a recent Ward Carroll podcast). The fact that the Russians allowed the recovery of the Tunguska in broad daylight is telling as it suggests a lack of drone reconnaissance in the area, and an inability to target it with artillery.
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Ukraine Navy Destroys Russian Ammunition Depot on the Kinburn Spit
🎦 05:03-07:35⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of a Ukrainian Navy operation that has successfully destroyed a Russian ammunition depot and a 120mm mortar on the Kinburn Spit. Jonathan notes an increase in reported losses of larger mortar systems. There are a lot of rumours suggesting that Ukraine is preparing to attack and invade the Kinburn and Tundrushka spits, with other attacks planned near Zaporizhia and Bryansk. It's likely that this is a disinformation campaign to force Russia to keep troops in position, however, the attack on the Kinburn Spit could be a shaping operation ahead of an attack or just a consequence of Russian shelling of Ochakiv, a Ukrainian marine training base across the estuary from the Kinburn Peninsula.
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Russian Military Office in Kazan Firebombed
🎦 07:35-08:07⏩
There have been reports of a military court building in Kazan being firebombed. Jonathan speculates whether this is related to recent mobilisation rumours.
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13 Year Old Arrested for Arson Attack
🎦 08:07-08:12⏩
It has been reported that a 13-year-old boy and his mother have been arrested following the arson attack in Kazan.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 08:12-10:57⏩
Ukraine reports that air defences shot down 8 out of 9 Shahed drones but were unable to intercept six KH-59/69 missiles, or the Iskander ballistic missile that was also launched. Two of the KH-59/69 missiles struck Kharkiv, destroying two houses, damaging over a dozen more and damaging a gas pipeline. Three people were injured. There was a further strike in Chuhuiv in the Kharkiv region, injuring three more people. Ukraine claims that 8 Russian targets were destroyed overnight. Jonathan notes that the proximity of Kharkiv to the Russian border makes it very difficult to intercept incoming missiles. A hotel used by foreign and Ukrainian journalists in Kramatorsk was also targeted. Jonathan mentions that subscriber Pierre contacted him to advise him to avoid staying in places frequented by foreign journalists as they have become targets. Russia is claiming to have bombed Belgorod, killing 5 Russian citizens and injuring 12.
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Missile Strike on Snake Island
🎦 10:57-12:08⏩
Footage has been released of what the Russians claim is a cruise missile strike on Snake Island, alleging that GUR and NATO special forces were on the Island.
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Missile Strike on Ukrainian Facility in Sloviansk
🎦 12:08-13:27⏩
Russian Telegram channels are claiming a successful missile strike on a Ukrainian facility in Sloviansk, with secondary explosions heard. Analysis of NASA's FIRMS data (which detects fires) appears to confirm a fire 5km from the location although Jonathan notes that the claimed location of the fire and the FIRMS data are slightly different. Jonathan speculates that this could have been a decoy.
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Jet Drone Attack on Crimea
🎦 13:27-15:09⏩
Russian Telegram channels have reported a large group of Ukrainian jet drones heading towards Crimea. There were no reports of anything being hit in Crimea, but there are reports of drones attacking Bataysk in the Rostov region.
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Drone Strike on Military Unit and Airfield in Bataysk
🎦 15:09-15:40⏩
The drone strike in Bataysk appears to have targeted a military unit and airfield. The size of the fire suggests a grass fire, but analysis of FIRMS data suggests there may have been some damage to military infrastructure.
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Update on Warehouse Fire in Voronezh
🎦 15:40-18:14⏩
The warehouse fire in Voronezh is still burning and 200 people have been evacuated. A state of emergency has been declared for three settlements in the area. It is thought that this was struck by Ukraine's new jet drone. Jonathan notes that if this new weapon is as capable as it seems and can strike deep inside Russia (effectively acting as a cheap cruise missile), this negates all the "Western handwringing" about supplying Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles or ATACMS. It is thought that the US may have been deliberately delaying sending longer range weapons to Ukraine to allow them time to develop their own. Jonathan believes that the targets that Ukraine wanted to hit with longer range weapons may have already been moved deeper inside Russia, although their new weapon may now be able to target them. Jonathan believes that the warehouse was an ammunition storage facility and is pleased about the strike.
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Drone Strike on Belgorod Airport
🎦 18:14-19:15⏩
There has been an explosion at Belgorod Airport (just north of the border with Kharkiv Oblast) which was being used to house Russian air defence systems. Russian propagandists are claiming that the airport was hit by a drone. Jonathan recounts how Russia were forced to move their air defence systems after the US allowed HIMARS to target them.
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Zelensky Unveils New Weapon
🎦 19:15-20:13⏩
Zelensky has officially unveiled the new Palantir rocket/missile drone that is thought to have been used in the attack on the warehouse in Voronezh. It is cheaper than similar weapons and was developed in 18 months. It can reach two dozen Russian airfields.
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Russian Helicopter Shoots Down Shahed Drone
🎦 20:13-20:45⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of a Russian helicopter shooting down a Shahed drone with machine gun fire. Jonathan notes that it is being escorted over fields, and that this will be deliberate to ensure that if it is shot down, the drone doesn't explode over a populated area.
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115 Ukrainian Defenders Returned Home in Prisoner Exchange
🎦 20:45-22:32⏩
115 Ukrainian defenders have been returned home following a prisoner exchange, many of whom had been held for a number of years, some since the defence of Mariupol. It is thought that Russia exchanged conscripts captured during the Kursk incursion. This is one of the advantages of the Kursk operation as it is providing Ukraine with prisoners that they can exchange. The Ukrainians appear to be using the exchanges to repatriate more experienced soldiers, whilst Russia receives inexperienced conscripts, many of whom have surrendered. Jonathan questions what happens to the conscripts on their return - will they be rehabilitated and sent back to the front? Are they psychologically fit enough for that? 115 soldiers are more useful to Ukraine than 115 conscripts are to the Russians.
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Russian Propagandist Calls for Jailed Exchanged Conscripts
🎦 22:32-23:37⏩
Russian propagandist, Mikhail Polenkov, who has close ties to Igor Girkin, is calling for Russia to jail the conscripts who were returned in the prisoner exchange as they surrendered without a fight. He states that they are not children and should be convicted.
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Putin and Gerasimov Discuss the Situation in Kursk
🎦 23:37-25:45⏩
Putin has been filmed with Gerasimov discussing the situation in Kursk. The Kremlin released the footage which was silent, with all papers blurred. This is the first time Gerasimov has been seen doing his job for 8 months - after the strike on Crimea last year, he went AWOL and it was rumoured that he had been killed in the strike. Jonathan notes that when he reappeared 3 months later, he seemed "different" and not well. Gerasimov has been absent from a number of key meetings relating to the war (including the recent one in China) and his absence, coupled with the very odd video released by the Kremlin, suggests that something is wrong. Jonathan does not understand the point of releasing the video, other than to prove that Gerasimov is well enough to sit at a table with Putin.
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Russia "Blinking" After Ukraine Crosses "Red Lines"
🎦 25:45-29:56⏩
Jonathan is amused by the change in mainstream media's narrative concerning Russia's military strength. He has been pointing out for many months that Russia is not as powerful as it would like the world to believe and that all of Putin's "red lines" have been crossed without any significant repercussions. The Kursk incursion has highlighted the weakness of the Russian military. Jonathan believes that mainstream media has been complicit in promoting Russian propaganda. The Washington Post published an article echoing the points that Jonathan has been making, noting that Ukraine has been able to cross Putin's red lines, including the invasion of Kursk, without Russia responding in a meaningful way.
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Update on the Kursk Incursion
🎦 29:56-32:25⏩
Jonathan discusses a GIF showing the progress of the Kursk incursion, noting that although Russia has been able to push back Ukrainian advances, they are slowly making gains and have had some success on the western flank around Koronovo, and on the south-eastern side. Jonathan notes that the Russians are better at building fortifications than the Ukrainians and are building large trench systems very quickly. He encourages viewers to donate to Constantine, who appears on Andrew Perpetua's channel and is raising money for excavators for Ukraine. Two of the excavators he raised money for have been seen in Kursk.
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Ukraine Rumoured to Have 70% of its Reserves Uncommitted
🎦 32:25-36:31⏩
There are rumours that 70% of the Ukrainian reserves prepared for the summer offensive are uncommitted, and massing for attacks in other locations. Some Russian sources claim that Ukraine has four brigades and 100 armoured vehicles in the Zaporizhia area with a view to attacking towards Tokmak. However, military analysts, including Intel Slava Z, believe that 4 brigades are insufficient for an attack on this area given the level of fortifications, the terrain and the logistical supply routes from Crimea and Mariupol. Jonathan believes that it is more likely that this is a disinformation campaign designed to force Russia to keep troops in position across the front. This view is shared by military analysts, Two Majors, who state that this is a disinformation campaign, and that attacks are also being threatened in Bryansk, Hostomel and Zaporizhia.
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Russian Residents Dissatisfied With the Military
🎦 36:31-38:11⏩
Russian war correspondent, Sladkov, has said that residents of Belgorod are increasingly unhappy with the Russian military's inability to protect them from Ukrainian attacks. There is anger towards the Russian authorities with some people openly supporting Ukraine. A video has emerged of residents of a Russian town in occupied Ukraine pledging allegiance to Ukraine. The area was part of Ukraine until 1921.
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Putin Faces Coup
🎦 38:11-40:37⏩
Jonathan discusses an article published in the Irish Star that claims Putin is facing a coup. Georgi Zakrevsky, who founded the Paladin Private Military Company (a much smaller organisation than Wagner) has released a video openly criticising Putin for his handling of the war, and the disastrous impact it is having on Russia's economy and society. He called for the military to overthrow Putin.
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Usyk Wins World Heavyweight Title
🎦 40:37-42:07⏩
Ukrainian boxer, Usyk, has won the world Heavyweight title after defeating Tyson Fury. He has given his championship belt to Zelensky. Jonathan jokes that he reckons he could take Usyk in a fight.
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Dugin Calls for Execution of Liberals Following Durov's Arrest
🎦 42:07-43:10⏩
Following the arrest of Pavel Durov (the founder of Telegram) in France, Russian nationalist and Putin supporter, Alexander Dugin, has called for Putin to execute all liberals in Russia. Jonathan is horrified.
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Wrap Up
🎦 43:10-43:10⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and says goodbye.
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