Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"The Ukrainian counter-offensive is bringing us serious losses and problems which are hushed up, which the Russian people don't know about. When the trouble comes, I'll repeat, we may remain without an army and without Russia."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual introduction and notes he will look at the trends in Russian losses in his extra video later today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 650 liquidated personnel, around average of 500-600 per day during counter-offensive
- 7 tanks, 12 APVs - fairly average
- 21 artillery systems, 2 MLRS - huge unsustainable numbers, over 1000 artillery pieces lost in 2 months
- 1 anti-aircraft system, 1 helicopter (Mi-14), 10 drones, 11 vehicles/fuel tanks
Putin's Claims on Ukrainian Losses
Putin claimed Ukraine has lost 245 tanks and 678 armoured vehicles since the counter-offensive began. Jonathan says these numbers are "completely fanciful" and there is footage to defend the actual Russian losses reported.
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Russian Fighter's Damning Account
A Russian fighter with call sign "13th" gave a damning account of the situation, saying they are taking serious losses every day, with only 6 out of 300 former prisoners surviving recently, likely at Pyatykhatky. He says most losses are the fault of the command, not soldiers, and those on TV saying everything is going to plan will not appear on the front lines.
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Downed Russian Helicopter and Ukrainian Mishap
- Ukraine shot down a Russian Mi-24 helicopter. Losing the crews on these is problematic for Russia.
- Unfortunate situation where a Ukrainian tank backed over and crushed the front of an International MaxxPro MRAP, likely while attempting to avoid Lancet drone strikes. The vehicles appear to still be in Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Equipment Losses - Oryx
Oryx visually confirmed losses for yesterday show 47 Ukrainian losses including 11 tanks, and 76 Russian losses including 10 tanks and many logistics trucks. Jonathan notes to consider these may be losses over the whole war, just footage released that day.
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Ammunition Depot Hits
Another reported Russian ammunition depot hit in occupied Zaporizhzhia, after the huge one in Raihorodka. These hits, combined with many supply trucks taken out, will cause serious problems for Russian artillery and defences in coming weeks.
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Explosions in Crimea and Melitopol
- Two powerful explosions reported in Sevastopol, Crimea. Air defences active, something shot down near a hotel.
- Several explosions in Melitopol. Russian base hit in Azovske near Berdyansk in former recreational centre.
Chonhar Bridge Hit
A bridge at Chonhar, one of the connections to Crimea, was significantly damaged. Differing claims on importance of this older bridge, but likely shaping things for Crimea explicitly.
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Prigozhin's Claims
Prigozhin made several claims in an audio message, saying Pyatykhatky, northern Robotyne and Urozhaine are under Ukrainian control with huge land losses. He says all taken territories may be returned if Ukraine reaches Molochny Estuary, and first sabotage groups are crossing the Dnipro to Kherson. He claims huge Russian losses being hidden by leadership. Jonathan says if you laud Wagner's successes you can't dismiss Prigozhin's negative claims. There are likely significant elements of truth to what he's saying, even if he has an agenda against the Russian MOD.
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Frontline Updates
- Russians attacking and made gains around Torske west of Kreminna after hellish barrage, but held back by Ukraine
- South of Kreminna near Bilohorivka, Ukraine conducted successful offensive actions
- Ukraine pushing back north of Marinka
- Possible Ukrainian advances west of Makarivka in Donetsk region
- Continued fighting over forest west of Pyatykhatky in Zaporizhzhia direction
- Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian gains north of Robotyne and around Orikhiv and Vasylivka with many Russian POWs taken
Concentration Camps in Donetsk
An advisor to the Mariupol mayor said the leader of the so-called DPR officially ordered the creation of camps to detain anyone not a citizen of the DPR or Russia. Jonathan calls this "Nazism 2.0".
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Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Brigades
One of the exploitation brigades for the Ukrainian offensive is reportedly still training, so the time to deploy them hasn't arrived yet, implying the full counter-offensive is not underway.
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Military Aid to Ukraine
- Ukrainian Su-25 pilots are begging for F-16s, saying they are losing many aircraft to Russian Su-35 interceptors. Possible training to begin in August in Romania.
- US House Committee backed resolution calling for Biden admin to immediately provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. Jonathan notes there may be good reasons these haven't been provided yet.
- Bulgaria preparing new aid package of Soviet-era weapons and ammo from its warehouses.
- Germany delivered more aid and pledged Vulcano guided artillery rounds.
- Latvia transferring all 4 of its Mi-17 helicopters and Stinger air defence systems to Ukraine.
Ukraine Reconstruction Conference Aid
The Ukraine Recovery Conference in London saw many aid pledges:
- $1.75B from World Bank
- $1.3B from US ($520M for energy grid, $657M for infrastructure, $381M for weapons)
- €40M and multi-year support plan from France
- $500M investment in Ukraine Development Fund from Australian businessman Andrew Forrest
Russian Military Shipments
Modernised Russian T-80BVM and T-72B3M tanks seen at a railway station in Rostov Oblast heading towards Ukraine. Jonathan questions where they are coming from and why not the most modern T-90s, and compares this to the aid Ukraine is receiving.
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Geopolitics
- EU assessed it can't legally confiscate frozen Russian assets outright, will focus on using them temporarily
- 11th package of EU sanctions to include ban on Russian trucks crossing border and oil transport via northern Druzhba pipeline
- NATO allies like UK and France backing fast-track membership for Ukraine, shifting stance. Ukraine invited to NATO summit in Vilnius.
Wrap up
Jonathan apologises for the interruptions in the video due to garden maintenance. He asks viewers to like, subscribe and share, thanks them for their support, and says he will provide a frontline update soon.
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