Ukraine War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - NASAMS Record!
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"You're dealing with Russia here and a war between two nations, one fighting for its very existence and the other fighting for an imperialistic dream. This isn't going to be easy to... solve, certainly not in 24 hours."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00.560-00:43.040
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first part of the Ukraine War news update for 28th April 2025. He mentions a philosophical live stream from the previous night discussing the morality of targeted killing and assassination in the context of war, encouraging viewers to check it out on the channel's live tab.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses (General Staff figures)
🎦 00:43.040-01:35.140
Jonathan presents the daily Russian loss figures according to the Ukrainian General Staff, reminding viewers of the usual caveats (linked in the description).
- Personnel: 1,160 (substantial, consistent with recent figures).
- Tanks: 4 (low).
- AFVs: 13 (below daily average).
- Artillery Systems: 31 (above daily average but lower than recently).
- MLRS/AAW Systems: 0.
- Vehicles/Fuel Tanks: 105 (massive, but lower than some recent highs).
Jonathan characterises the figures as "ticking along".
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Russian Paratrooper Laments State of Military Cemetery
🎦 01:35.140-03:41.100
Jonathan shares a video of a Russian paratrooper, undergoing rehabilitation, visiting a new military cemetery in Ussurisk.
- The paratrooper expresses dismay (swearing is heard) at the state of the graveyard, which resembles a muddy building site ("clumps of mud").
- Jonathan highlights the sheer volume of new graves, suggesting "horrific" numbers of casualties.
- He contrasts this with his experience visiting Ukrainian military cemeteries, particularly one in Lviv (possibly the Lychakiv Cemetery's Field of Mars), which he found incredibly emotional and impressive due to the sense of place, patriotism, flags, memorabilia, and overall care shown for the fallen.
Chechen Akhmat Commander "Tarzan" Killed in Kursk
🎦 03:41.100-04:16.760
Russian and Chechen sources report the death of Bvasar Ukmanov (call sign "Tarzan"), a commander of the Chechen Akhmat battalion.
- He was known for involvement in the brutal assaults on Sievierodonetsk.
- Considered a propaganda figure, he was reportedly eliminated by the ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) in Kursk.
UK Intel: Russia Recruits 1,500+ Foreign Nationals (Apr '23 - May '24)
🎦 04:16.760-06:17.860
Jonathan discusses a UK intelligence report (dated yesterday) regarding foreign recruitment by Russia.
- Between April 2023 and May 2024, over 1,500 foreign nationals were recruited in Moscow (source: Vazhnaya Istory).
- Breakdown: South/East Asia (771, likely India, Nepal), former Soviet republics (523), Africa (72).
- Motivation: Primarily financial incentives and pathways to Russian citizenship. Recruitment is likely "non-systematic". Moscow offers higher bonuses and accessibility.
- Impact: Foreign nationals are a small proportion of total Russian forces but help maintain recruitment levels without resorting to a second general mobilisation, thus helping to replace heavy losses.
- Jonathan notes previous claims about recruits from Cuba and Nepal (claims of over 10,000 from Nepal were likely untrue) and wonders about figures from 2022-April 2023.
Ukrainian Special Forces Raid Kursk Oblast, Capture POWs
🎦 06:17.860-08:06.880
Reporting from the Kyiv Independent:
- Ukrainian Special Forces (73rd Naval Special Operations Centre) conducted a raid on Russian positions in Kursk Oblast, Russia.
- They captured two Russian soldiers (video evidence exists).
- This operation disputes claims by Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov and President Putin that Kursk Oblast has been fully recaptured from Ukrainian forces (who have held parts since August 2024).
- The raid targeted and destroyed a unit from Russia's 810th Marine Brigade, which Jonathan notes has suffered heavily.
- The report quotes the acting commander of the 810th Brigade telling Putin that "scattered groups and individual soldiers" of Ukrainian forces in Kursk will soon be destroyed, implicitly acknowledging their continued presence.
- Jonathan notes areas near Gornal appear to still be under Ukrainian control.
Russian Motorcycle/Quad Bike Mine Incidents
🎦 08:06.880-08:53.480
Jonathan mentions ongoing video evidence of Russian forces using motorcycles and quad bikes for manoeuvres on the front line.
- He specifically references videos showing these vehicles hitting mines.
- One video shows two vehicles (possibly motorcycles, possibly quads) blowing up synchronously on mines.
Russian Airstrikes Hit Kherson, Causing Injuries
🎦 08:53.480-09:43.585
Jonathan reports on Russian airstrikes in Kherson, highlighting that while Ukrainian use of guided glide bombs (like French AASM Hammer) is often shown, Russia also uses them extensively.
- Airstrikes hit the central Dniprovsky district of Kherson city.
- At least four injuries were recorded.
- A clinic, a school, and houses were damaged.
- Still images from a Russian video of the strike were shown (source: Tim White).
- Jonathan presumes these Russian guided glide bombs are having "quite a bit of effect".
Questioning Recent S-400 Destruction Report (Belbek Airbase)
🎦 09:43.585-11:46.425
Jonathan addresses a recent report he covered about a destroyed Russian S-400 battery, potentially at Belbek Airbase.
- He thanks viewer Thierry for pointing out that the images used in the report were actually from a previous, confirmed S-400 strike at Belbeck Air Base on 15th May 2024 (destroying a 92N6E Greystone radar).
- This raises uncertainty about whether the newly reported S-400 destruction actually occurred, or if it was incorrectly reported using old imagery. Jonathan notes this is a common problem on social media.
- He expresses disappointment if the hit didn't happen, as the S-400 is a high-value target. The earlier report claimed two launchers and radar were hit.
- He confirms Belbek was targeted recently, and Crimea was targeted again last night, so a hit remains plausible, but advises caution ("pinch of salt").
- He mentions a delay in releasing the video due to "problems with school and children".
Ukrainian Su-27 Fighter Jet Lost (Pilot Safe)
🎦 11:46.425-13:25.165
Jonathan reports breaking news:
- Today (April 28th), while supporting ground forces and repelling a drone attack, a Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jet was lost.
- The pilot ejected successfully, was rescued, and is in stable condition.
- Jonathan notes this is significant as Su-27s are "pretty thin on the ground" and are the aircraft modified to carry Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG cruise missiles.
- He recalls previous understanding that few operational Su-27s remained, potentially bottlenecking cruise missile usage, though he acknowledges the current issue might be missile availability rather than launch platforms.
Overnight Russian Drone Strike Kills Civilian in Senelnykove
🎦 13:25.165-13:58.025
Further overnight news:
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was targeted again, specifically the town of Senelnykove, which has been hit multiple times recently.
- Another civilian was killed there due to drone hits causing fires, particularly in a residential building. The victim died en route to hospital after being burned.
- The total number of Russian munitions used overnight is still unknown.
NASAMS System Achieves Record: 11 Cruise Missiles Downed in <2 Mins
🎦 13:58.025-14:44.765
Positive news regarding air defence:
- A NASAMS (Norwegian-American) air defence system reportedly broke records by downing 11 Russian cruise missiles in under two minutes.
- Jonathan calls this "absolutely insane".
- The claim comes from Ukraine's Air Force. NASAMS have been in Ukrainian service since November 2022.
Ukraine Targets Key Bryansk Electronics Plant (Kremlin L) Again
🎦 14:44.765-17:02.025
Details on Ukrainian drone strikes into Russia last night:
- Bryansk was heavily targeted; Russia claimed over 100 drones were shot down there alone. Jonathan believes Ukraine is very active most nights, even if little BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) is released.
- The L Kremlin (Kremlin EL) microelectronics factory in Bryansk was hit again (the fifth time since Feb 2022). Source: Max24 shared videos/CCTV of strikes.
- This plant is highly significant, producing components for Topol-M, Bulava, S-300/S-400, Pantsir, Iskander missiles, radar, EW systems, drones, and combat aircraft electronics. Jonathan notes it's no surprise it's frequently targeted.
- Explosions were also reported overnight in occupied Crimea, in the Chornomorsk district (specifically Vnukovo village mentioned by Russian sources), but BDA is minimal.
Daytime Russian Ballistic Missile Attacks on Five Ukrainian Regions
🎦 16:49.245-17:24.725
Jonathan reports very recent news (within the last two hours):
- Russia launched daytime ballistic missile attacks on five Ukrainian cities/regions: Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Sumy, and Kryvyi Rih.
- Source Ukraine Battle Map attributes this to Ukraine's lack of Patriot air defence systems, stating the missiles were not shot down.
- No further details on damage or casualties were available at the time of recording.
Further Notes on Su-27 Loss and AASM Hammer Bomb Use
🎦 17:24.725-18:11.185
* Jonathan mentions several sources reporting the Su-27 loss but doesn't know the specific location (speculates near Kursk).
- He notes another video showing a Ukrainian strike using French AASM Hammer bombs launched from a MiG-29 near Ocheretyne, reiterating the frequent use of these munitions by Ukraine.
12 More Ukrainian Children Returned from Russian Occupation
🎦 18:11.185-18:50.729
Reporting from Anton Gerashchenko (via Daria Zarivna, advisor to Presidential Office head):
- Another 12 Ukrainian children have been successfully returned from Russian-occupied territories.
- Examples of mistreatment included threats of being sent to orphanages for not attending Russian propaganda schools, forced conscription registration, humiliation for speaking Ukrainian, and torture of an older brother.
- One 10-year-old boy was separated from his grandmother during an escape attempt but was later evacuated and reunited thanks to Ukrainian partners.
- Thanks were given to the Save Ukraine team and partners. Jonathan notes this is an ongoing issue far from resolution.
Account of Russian Stormtrooper: Conditions, Corruption, Desertion
🎦 18:50.729-25:39.810
Jonathan reads extensively from a long thread by Chris O about a young Russian soldier, Camille M (call sign "Virus"), who fled to France and gave an interview to Novaya Gazeta Europa. Key points from his account:
- Conscript Service: Pointless tasks (painting grass green), lazy commanders (playing Dota while he did their work), access to secret documents despite being a conscript.
- Storm V Unit (Prisoner Recruit): Joined after fabricated charges landed him in prison. Received one month's training (unusual).
- Frontline Conditions: Brutal treatment by officers, rampant corruption/theft, unpaid salaries, constant threat from Ukrainian drones making death/injury almost certain on missions.
- Supplies: Had to buy own vehicles/food or rely on scarce volunteer aid often stolen in rear areas (UAZ "Loaf" vans rarely reached the front). Vehicles quickly destroyed. Road T0511 near Ocheretyne described as a "road of death".
- Drone Threat: Continuous drone activity led to draconian punishments; soldiers who attracted drone attention could be shot by their own side.
- Casualties/Treatment of Wounded: Returning uninjured from assault led to suspicion of desertion and potential execution ("zeroed out"). Unburied bodies ("200s") littered the positions.
- Morale/Motivation: Soldiers seen as "pseudo-patriots" or needing money. Some came wanting to die, which was quickly fulfilled (e.g., 65/70-year-old carrying gasoline hit by drone). Drug/alcohol use common to cope, but often led to death (e.g., drunk soldier threatening others shot by own side). Soldiers quickly realised the futility ("fighting simply... for nothing").
- Pay: Promised salary and bonuses were not paid ("category of payment is not due"). Legal action was pointless due to short life expectancy ("By the time you sue... your relatives will have already sued for [death benefits]").
- Desertion: Difficult due to Russian drones monitoring and border guards preventing crossing back. Camille shot himself non-lethally in the leg to get evacuated. Planned to bribe a doctor but hospital authorities suspected him and planned to send him straight back to the front with an escort ("a one-way ticket"). He deserted from the hospital, took a taxi home to Kazan, was left alone for four months, then left Russia and sought asylum in France.
- Jonathan finds these recurring anecdotes are becoming more like data.
Russian Embassy Fire in Montevideo; Economic Growth Stalls
🎦 25:39.810-26:14.469
* Jonathan briefly mentions a report of the Russian embassy burning in Montevideo, Uruguay.
- Cites The Economist: A high-frequency index from Goldman Sachs suggests Russia's annualised economic growth has fallen from around 5% (driven by war economy) to near zero since the end of last year. Jonathan expects more details on this if true.
Ex-President Yanukovych Sentenced to 15 Years In Absentia
🎦 26:14.469-26:45.190
* Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian former president of Ukraine who fled during the Maidan Revolution in 2014, has been sentenced to 15 years in prison in absentia.
- Charges relate to illegally smuggling people (his guards) across the border and inciting desertion as Russia moved in.
- Konstantin Kobzar, former deputy head of state security, received a 10-year sentence.
North Korea Confirms Troop Deployment to Russia
🎦 26:45.190-27:17.630
* North Korea has now officially confirmed troop deployments to Russia, joining previous acknowledgements from Gerasimov and Putin.
- Jonathan quotes a source stating this amounts to a "declaration of war by two countries possessing nuclear weapons" against Ukraine and proves "appeasement only leads to more escalation". He notes many previously denied this was happening.
Major Win for Ukraine: US Aid Not Counted in Rare Earth Mineral Deal
🎦 27:17.630-28:09.874
Reporting from Euromaidan Press via Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal:
- A significant development in the US-Ukraine rare earth minerals deal: US aid funds previously provided will not be counted against the value of the deal or considered repayment.
- Jonathan views this as a "massive, massive concession" for the US and a testament to Ukrainian negotiators (who reportedly hired a US law firm).
- This removes a major obstacle and shifts the dynamic from aid repayment towards a more balanced partnership.
- Jonathan considers this an "amazing outcome" for Ukraine, returning the situation closer to how it was before recent tensions (e.g., the Trump-Zelensky White House incident). He enjoys a sip of tea.
Analysis of Trump's Stance on Ukraine War and Peace Prospects
🎦 28:09.874-33:52.574
Jonathan analyses recent developments regarding Donald Trump's position on the Ukraine war:
- Despite the recent meeting with Zelensky in the Vatican and talk of sanctions, Jonathan remains sceptical of a genuine change in Trump's stance, believing he reverts to his default pro-Russian position upon returning to the US and his usual advisors.
- Trump has privately admitted ending the war is harder than he thought. Jonathan remarks, "no shit, Sherlock," given the complexities.
- He quotes Philip O'Brien, who argues Trump consistently pushes Russian interests regardless of optics, calling the reaction to the Vatican meeting "foolish". Jonathan mentions reading Luke Harding's 2017 book "Collusion" reminded him of Trump's long-standing alignment with Russian influence.
- Jonathan cites Max24 reporting Trump's latest comments: Trump wants Putin to "stop shooting, sit down and make a deal," claiming "we have the outline of a deal" (shifting from previous claims of being "very close"). He expresses reluctance to take strong actions against Russia ("I don't want to do it").
- Trump continues to falsely claim the US gave Ukraine weapons and "$350 billion in cash". Jonathan finds this statement dangerous and indicative of Trump being surrounded by disinformation.
- Trump now claims Zelensky seemed "calmer" and "wants to make a deal". Jonathan attributes Zelensky's calmness to the different context compared to being attacked in the White House.
- Kyiv Independent reports Trump stated he believes Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea.
- German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius explicitly stated Trump's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions "go too far" and affirmed Germany will continue supporting Ukraine with military aid, even if US aid is cut.
Lavrov Reiterates Russian Demands for Peace Settlement
🎦 33:52.574-34:35.034
* Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that international recognition of Crimea, the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR/LPR), and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as Russian territory is an "imperative" for a peaceful settlement.
- Jonathan highlights this brings the situation back to an impasse, demonstrating why Trump finds the situation "harder to sort out than I originally thought".
- He argues that since both sides have non-negotiable red lines that preclude compromise, the solution must be military and economic: supporting Ukraine "to the absolute hilt".
Lavrov Rejects US Control of ZNPP; US-Russia Talks on Negotiations
🎦 34:35.034-36:43.734
* Lavrov stated Russia will not hand over control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to the US, dismissing the idea in a CBS News interview. He claimed Moscow hasn't received proposals for US-Ukraine control and accused Europe/Zelensky of trying to use Trump's 'peace plan' (which Jonathan notes doesn't exist) to strengthen Ukraine. Jonathan points out the inherent bias in negotiations – each side aims for the strongest possible position.
- The Russian Foreign Ministry reported a phone call between Lavrov and the US Secretary of State (transcript mentions Marco Rubio, but this is likely an error for Antony Blinken - see Queries). Source: Anton Gerashchenko.
- The call reportedly focused on the "Ukraine crisis" and stressed consolidating "emerging prerequisites for the start of negotiations". Jonathan notes the contrast between US claims of being close to a deal ('outline') and Russian focus on 'prerequisites', suggesting a return to "square one".
Wrap up
🎦 36:43.734-36:50.634
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, apologises for the video being slightly late, and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The transcript at [35:41.814] mentions a phone call between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and "the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio". Marco Rubio is a US Senator from Florida, not the Secretary of State. The current US Secretary of State is Antony Blinken. This appears to be either a slip of the tongue by Jonathan or an error in the transcript/source he was reading from.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
The user wants me to summarise a YouTube video transcript from ATP Geopolitics for the "ATP Distilled" project. I need to act as a diligent editor/writer, use British English, and follow a specific XML structure.
Step-by-step Plan:
Understand Context: Review the CONTEXT section detailing ATP Geopolitics, Jonathan MS Pearce, the channel's content style, the purpose of "ATP Distilled", and the target audience's needs (condensed, trustworthy information). Note the emphasis on Jonathan's insights, analysis, and personality.
Parse Instructions: Carefully read the OVERALL TASK, BEFORE YOU START, and specific tasks (TASK 1-6) with their rules/guidance and XML requirements. Pay attention to formatting (DD/MM/YYYY date, timestamp format), spelling (Ukrainian names, common sources/individuals), granularity of topics, inclusion of specific elements (intro/outro topics, sources, opinions, tea mentions), and the final XML structure.
Execute TASK 1 (Title, Date, Part): Extract information from the provided YouTube video title "Ukraine War Update (20250428a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - NASAMS Record!".
Title: "Ukraine War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - NASAMS Record!"
Date: Convert 20250428 to 28/04/2025.
Part: Extract "a".
Format using ``, ``, `` tags.
- Execute TASK 2 (Topic Titles): Read through the transcript, identify logical breaks and distinct subjects. Create specific, granular titles. Ensure the first is "Hello Team" and the last is "Wrap up". Assign sequential IDs.
- Topic 1: Intro, mention previous live stream.
- Topic 2: Russian loss figures (General Staff).
- Topic 3: Russian paratrooper video showing poor cemetery conditions.
- Topic 4: Chechen commander "Tarzan" killed.
- Topic 5: UK Intel on foreign recruitment by Russia.
- Topic 6: Ukrainian SOF raid in Kursk, POW capture, disputing Russian claims.
- Topic 7: Russian vehicle losses (motorcycles/quads) to mines.
- Topic 8: Russian airstrikes in Kherson.
- Topic 9: Questioning recent S-400 hit report due to reused imagery.
- Topic 10: Loss of Ukrainian Su-27.
- Topic 11: Overnight Russian drone strike casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Topic 12: NASAMS record missile interception claim.
- Topic 13: Ukrainian drone strikes on Bryansk electronics plant and Crimea.
- Topic 14: Daytime Russian ballistic missile strikes across Ukraine.
- Topic 15: Follow-up notes on Su-27 loss / AASM bomb use.
- Topic 16: Return of abducted Ukrainian children.
- Topic 17: Detailed account of a Russian deserter's experience.
- Topic 18: Russian embassy fire (Montevideo), potential economic slowdown.
- Topic 19: Yanukovych sentencing in absentia.
- Topic 20: North Korea confirms troop deployment to Russia.
- Topic 21: Ukraine secures deal where US aid isn't counted against mineral rights.
- Topic 22: Analysis of Trump's evolving stance and statements on Ukraine/peace talks.
- Topic 23: Lavrov's stated preconditions for peace (territorial recognition).
- Topic 24: Lavrov rejects US control of ZNPP, mentions US-Russia talks.
- Topic 25: Outro.
- Format using `
` tags.
- Execute TASK 3 (Topic Timestamps): Match timestamps from the transcript to the start and end of each defined topic.
- Format using `
` tags, ensuring IDs match TASK 2. - Check for coverage of the entire transcript duration.
- Execute TASK 4 (Topic Summaries): Write bullet-point summaries for each topic, capturing key information, sources (Thierry, Kyiv Independent, UK Intel, Chris O, Anton Gerashchenko, Euromaidan Press, Philip O'Brien, Max24), Jonathan's analysis/opinions (e.g., on cemeteries, foreign recruitment, S-400 report uncertainty, Su-27 loss significance, Trump's stance, peace impasse), tea mention, and any philosophical points. Ensure British English and correct spellings (Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, Senelnykove, Chornomorsk, Zaporizhzhia, Gerasimov, Yanukovych, Shmihal, Pistorius, Lavrov, etc.). Use markdown sparingly.
- Format using `` tags.
- Execute TASK 5 (Quote): Select a quote representing Jonathan's perspective or a key point. The quote about the nature of the war ("fighting for its very existence" vs "imperialistic dream") seems suitable. Correct punctuation/hesitations.
- Format using `
` tags.
- Execute TASK 6 (Queries): Review the process and transcript for any ambiguities. Note the potential error regarding "Marco Rubio" being named as US Secretary of State instead of Antony Blinken.
- Format using `
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
` tags.
- Final Assembly & Review: Combine all XML elements in the correct order. Check all opening/closing tags match precisely. Review for adherence to all rules (British English, spelling, format, content). Ensure no XML tags are repeated within the thinking block itself.
