Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video, thanking JR for the mapping. He notes there may be minor frontline changes since the map was produced, and reminds viewers to check the map key if needed.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna: No Change on Northeastern Axis
🎦 00:30-00:46⏩
Jonathan highlights the static frontline from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna, describing it as "incredible" given its duration.
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Torski-Terny Salient: Visual Confirmation of Russian Losses and Discussion of Sustainability
🎦 00:46-05:05⏩
Jonathan analyses a graph from Andrew Perpetua's live stream showing recent Russian equipment losses. He points out the unsustainable levels of losses in October during the Avdiivka assault. He observes that while APC losses might be sustainable, the destruction of tanks and IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles) is significant and unsustainable long term. He notes the particular spike in March, exceeding losses from the Avdiivka offensive, citing 262 IFVs lost according to Richard Vareka from Warspotting. Jonathan stresses these are visually confirmed losses from reputable sources, concluding that March was a disastrous month for Russian equipment.
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Terny: Russian Mechanised Push East of Terny Repulsed with Heavy Losses
🎦 05:05-06:15⏩
Jonathan reports a recent failed Russian mechanized push east of Terny, citing Ukrainian artillery, FPV drones, and a resurgence in ATGM use, notably Javelins. He displays the location on the map, highlighting losses occurring within what's generally considered Russian-controlled territory, supporting Andrew Perpetua's assessment.
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Snihurivka: Dispelling Russian Propaganda and Comparing to the Situation in Terny
🎦 06:15-07:39⏩
Jonathan discusses Snihurivka, quoting a user, Dan Spion, who calls it the "place where Russian propaganda fairy tales go to die" due to persistent false claims of its capture. He contrasts this with Terny, where Russian Telegram channels prematurely claim victory. Despite Russian advances, Jonathan emphasizes the heavy equipment losses they are incurring in both locations, particularly around Novomykolaivka and Avdiivka. He acknowledges limited Russian territorial gains, but questions their significance in light of the losses.
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Bilohirka: Russian Gains South of the Settlement
🎦 07:39-09:49⏩
Jonathan examines Russian gains south of Bilohirka confirmed by Suriat Maps. He analyses the topography, noting the difficulty of a direct assault due to the quarry and surrounding terrain. He suggests a flanking approach would be more effective, speculating this is Russia’s eventual strategy, though not without its own challenges.
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Bakhmut: Russian Gains North of Ivanivske
🎦 09:49-12:32⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over confirmed Russian gains north of Ivanivske on the high ground. He believes this puts pressure on Ivanivske and, subsequently, Chasiv Yar and Bohdanivka. He sees this as a potential start to the capture of Chasiv Yar, echoing predictions by Greg Terry based on Ukrainian military sources. He analyses the implications of these gains, noting the increased threat of Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions as they retreat to more defensible lines.
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Avdiivka: Russian Gains and Ukrainian Defensive Actions
🎦 12:32-16:53⏩
Jonathan observes Russian advances near Avdiivka, particularly their attempts to cross the river near Berdychi and Ukrainian gains to the north. He questions the accuracy of Suriat Maps’ initial assessment of Russian control in the area, highlighting the fluid situation and the importance of visual confirmation. Jonathan points to footage of Ukrainian troops engaging Russian positions from a Marder IFV, demonstrating the ongoing Ukrainian defence and willingness to counterattack. He further analyses Suriat Maps' update, noting the fluidity of the situation in Berdychi. He reminds viewers that Suriat Maps, while sometimes premature in marking Russian control, often proves accurate eventually due to the grinding nature of the conflict. Jonathan then discusses the situation around Novokalynove, questioning Russian control despite claims from Suriat Maps and highlighting the lack of visual confirmation.
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Krasnohorivka and Mariinka: Stabilized Frontline
🎦 17:16-18:17⏩
Jonathan points out the static frontline around Krasnohorivka, particularly to the south, which has seen little change. He considers this good news for Ukraine, as is the stabilisation around Heorhiivka, northwest of Mariinka.
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Pobjeda, Novomykolaivka and Kirovo: Ukrainian Resistance and Strategic Importance of Small Settlements
🎦 17:43-19:05⏩
Despite Russian pressure and the strategic importance of the area for further advances, Jonathan highlights the Ukrainian success in stabilising the frontline in Pobjeda. He emphasises the significance of seemingly insignificant settlements like Pobjeda, Novokalynove, and Kirovo, due to their strategic location.
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Novomykolaivka: Heavy Russian Equipment Losses and Ukrainian Success
🎦 18:17-20:27⏩
Jonathan describes Novomykolaivka as a "vehicle cemetery" due to the scale of Russian losses. He cites Ukrainian sources claiming 32 Russian tanks and 43 armoured vehicles destroyed in March, supported by extensive video evidence. He analyses Suriat Maps' report on the area, noting Russian advances from the north and south. Jonathan acknowledges these gains but highlights the heavy price the Russians are paying. He concludes by emphasizing the strategic importance of preventing the first domino from falling, or, if it does, making it as costly as possible for the Russians.
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Southern Frontline and Kremmina: No significant changes
🎦 20:27-20:43⏩
Jonathan reports no changes along the southern frontline or around Kremmina. He acknowledges that there may be more detailed information available from sources like the ISW (Institute for the Study of War) which he hasn’t yet reviewed.
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Overall Assessment: Costly Russian Gains and Potential Pyrrhic Victory
🎦 20:43-21:08⏩
Jonathan concludes by reflecting on the overall situation, noting that while Russia is making minor territorial gains, they are coming at a heavy cost. He questions the sustainability of these tactics, suggesting they could amount to a Pyrrhic victory.
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Wrap up
🎦 21:08-21:12⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asking them to like, subscribe, and share. He expresses his appreciation for their support and signs off.
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"They may claim success, where others might say that you are taking a leaf out the book of Pyrrhus, and it's looking like it could end up being a Pyrrhic victory, or at least a victory that costs the Russians dearly. And the question is, will it cost them too much?"
