Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"I just think the next month is going to be really interesting. And what else are the Russians going to lose? And how much damage are the Ukrainians going to do to the Russian armed forces away from the front line."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, noting there is a lot of content to cover. He mentions the losses for the Russian Navy and shares a meme about Putin losing ships to a country without a navy in a land war.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Losses for Russian Forces
- Over 600 Russian personnel lost, slightly higher than usual
- Significant losses of tanks (15), armoured personnel vehicles (18) and artillery systems (42)
- 3 multiple launch rocket systems lost
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system lost, with reports an entire S-400 battery worth over $1 billion was taken out in Crimea
- 47 drones lost over possibly two nights
- 1 submarine and 1 warship added as new categories
- 14 vehicles and fuel tanks lost, lower than usual
- 5 pieces of special equipment (electronic warfare, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) lost
Moment a Storm Shadow Cruise Missile Flies Over Sevastopol
Footage shows a Storm Shadow cruise missile flying over Sevastopol towards the dry dock where Russian ships were struck. The person filming can be heard saying "Good, good, let's go, let's go" in Russian, suggesting some in Crimea are happy with the strikes.
Return to top⤴️
Why is Ukraine Targeting Russian Landing Ships?
Ukraine may be specifically targeting Russian landing ships because:
- They are designed to save Russian logistics by transferring fuel and heavy cargo by sea, especially after Ukraine cut the railway line through Tokmak
- If Ukraine can deprive Russia of sea transport and cut the railway, it creates an "anti-access and area denial zone" for Russian logistics
- Without regular supplies of fuel, ammunition, medical supplies and equipment via these ships, it becomes very difficult for Russia to fight
Solid Evidence of Damage to the Minsk Landing Craft and Rostov-on-Don Submarine
Satellite imagery shows clear before and after shots confirming the landing craft and submarine were damaged/destroyed in the dry dock strike. The landing craft in particular looks "done for". Russian claims of 3 dead, 31 wounded and 20 missing are said to be workers, but Ukrainian sources say it was more likely to be marines guarding the vessels as workers would not be there in the middle of the night. The Minsk's machine room was reportedly struck beyond repair.
Return to top⤴️
Oryx Report on Equipment Losses
Oryx reported 6 pieces of Russian equipment lost vs 5 pieces of Ukrainian equipment. Jonathan argues the landing ship and submarine absolutely should be included in the tally as they are significant, substantial losses for Russia worth far more than a tank. Other Russian losses include another T-90M tank, possibly the 40th visually confirmed T-90 lost out of an estimated 100 T-90s in total.
Return to top⤴️
Complaints from Russian Units on the Front Line
A 3.5 minute video of a Russian unit in Klishchivka, south of Bakhmut, voicing complaints that only 25-30% of their unit remains, they haven't been paid, lack counter-battery capabilities, and have frequent electronic jamming of communications. This supports previous reports of heavy Russian losses in that area, which military analyst Andrew Perpetua questions why Russia is still trying to defend given the limited value.
Return to top⤴️
No Panzer Howitzer 2000 Artillery Lost
German Major General Christian Freuding claims Russia has not managed to destroy a single German-provided Panzer Howitzer 2000 self-propelled artillery in Ukraine. These advanced tracked guns have had some issues with barrels wearing out due to very high rates of fire and needing to be sent back to Germany for replacement.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Shelling Kills 6-Year-Old Boy in Kherson
Russian shelling of the Belizirka community in Kherson killed a 6-year-old boy and injured 4 others including the boy's 13-year-old brother. Jonathan questions whether this is due to inaccuracy, worn out gun barrels or deliberate targeting of civilians and infrastructure by Russia. He notes these incidents are so normalised now they may not be reported as much.
Return to top⤴️
Fires and Explosions in Russia and Occupied Territories
- Large fire at a school in Sokol Didilsk, Luhansk (occupied Ukraine), 6-7km from the border. Unclear if it was an attack or an accident. The school may have been used as a barracks.
- Huge gas pipeline fire near Saratov, Russia, after a reported explosion and possible "depressurisation". The fire covers several hectares.
More Crimea Attacks - Drones and Neptune Missiles
- Overnight, Russia claimed to shoot down 17 of 22 Ukrainian drones. 5 still got through but damage/casualties are unknown.
- According to Ukraine's SBU (intelligence), a coordinated attack on a Russian air defence base near Yevpatoria, Crimea destroyed an S-300/S-400 complex worth $1.2 billion. SBU drones first targeted the radar and control systems, then Ukrainian Neptune missiles struck the launchers. Satellite imagery from 2 weeks prior confirms the air defence systems were there.
- Separately, Russia claims to have shot down 5 Ukrainian naval drones targeting the patrol ship Sergei Kotov off Crimea, but provided no evidence.
Invictus Games and Prince Harry Honour Ukrainian POW
At the Invictus Games, Prince Harry took a moment to recognise Yulia Paevska, a Ukrainian Invictus team member who was a prisoner of war held by Russia and missed the 2022 games. He called her the most courageous and resilient person he has met, embodying the spirit of Ukraine and Invictus.
Return to top⤴️
Elon Musk Starlink Controversy
Elon Musk's recent restrictions and decisions around Starlink in Ukraine are causing controversy:
- According to Musk's biographer Walter Isaacson, Musk had "geofenced" Starlink to not work in Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, but did not tell the Ukrainian government or military who were relying on the system
- This caused a planned "sneak attack" on the Russian navy in Sevastopol using maritime drones to fail as Starlink suddenly stopped working
- Musk claimed this was because Starlink was for "defensive use only" per the terms of service and he feared a Ukrainian attack on Crimea could start WW3
- However, Musk had kept the geofencing secret, surprising the Ukrainians. He had also geofenced parts of eastern Ukraine, preventing troops from using Starlink to defend their own villages
- Isaacson argues private citizens like Musk should not have this level of control over a foreign war and such decisions should be made by the US government/military
- Under pressure, Musk later handed over control of parts of the Starlink network to the US Department of Defense so they could make future decisions on geofencing
- Musk had been in contact with both the Russian and Chinese ambassadors privately about the war in a "quasi-diplomatic" role
Wrap Up
Jonathan notes it was a long video with a lot of important news to cover. He promises to try and keep the next one shorter. He thanks viewers for watching and supporting the channel.
Return to top⤴️
