Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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"De facto it has entered a form of subservience with regards to China...It's already a geopolitical defeat."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his daily Ukraine War news update for May 15, 2023.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 580 liquidated Russian personnel, lower than recent figures
- 3 tanks, 11 APCs (significant number), 21 artillery pieces (consistently high numbers)
- Losses likely due to Ukrainian targeting of artillery ahead of counteroffensive and quick advances around Bakhmut
- 2 anti-aircraft systems, 24 drones, 3 cruise missiles, 16 vehicles/fuel tanks, 3 special equipment pieces
Bakhmut Update
- Ukrainian forces making advances north and south of Bakhmut, taking kilometers of territory
- Russians struggling to hold defensive lines, Wagner accused of avoiding positions
- At least 2 Russian colonels killed near Bakhmut, possibly up to 4
- Center of Bakhmut still contested
- Ukrainians likely trying to flank Bakhmut to force Russian withdrawal
Strikes and Explosions
- Drone strike in Russia's Bryansk oblast damaged 5 pieces of warehouse equipment
- Multiple explosions in Tokmak at an aviation school
- Smaller hit in Luhansk, incorrectly attributed to Storm Shadow missiles by Russians
- Railway repair plant in Donetsk hit on night of Eurovision, seen as symbolic as Ukrainian duo were from the city
Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner
- Washington Post reports leaked US intel showing Prigozhin offered troop locations to Ukraine if they withdrew from Bakhmut
- Prigozhin has had secret meetings with Ukrainian intelligence officials in Africa
- He complained about heavy losses and low morale among Wagner forces, urged Ukraine to attack
- Prigozhin's fate uncertain after leaks, may claim it was ploy to capture Bakhmut
Military Aid and Training
- Zelensky on diplomatic tour to UK, France, Germany, Italy to secure more aid
- France to provide dozens of armoured vehicles and light tanks, train Ukrainian battalions
- Norway to train over 3,000 Ukrainian troops
- Clarification that changes to Swiss re-export laws not in effect until at least 2024
- UK's Rishi Sunak to push for more Ukraine support at G7 but UK military supplies limited
Geopolitics
- Macron says Russia in "form of subservience" to China, lost Baltic access, already a "geopolitical defeat"
- But says Europe's future security must defend Ukraine while avoiding confrontation with Russia
- Scholz strongly backs Ukraine, says "Ukraine is here" and "Ukraine is Europe"
- Germany signs declaration supporting Ukraine's NATO membership path
- Concerns Belarus trying to avoid being absorbed by Russia, opposition warns of need to support democratic direction
Lukashenko's Health
- Belarus' Lukashenko not seen since May 8 after attending Victory Day in Moscow, speculation he is seriously ill
- Rumours he may have been poisoned by Russia after Belarus' limited support and death of foreign minister
- Russian officials downplay severity, claim Lukashenko "fallen ill and needs rest"
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers, notes a favourite band's concert was postponed so he will post videos as usual. Encourages viewers to like, subscribe and share.
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