Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They are attacking with fewer troops than they did in the original counter there, or not a counter invasion. But there have been interesting claims from the Russians."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:12⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a new year, 2025 and a new video - a Ukraine War News Update on the Kursk offensive. There is a lot to talk about so he's breaking the video into parts with this first part focusing on breaking news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses (04/01/2025)
🎦 00:12-01:09⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily report on Russian losses from the Ukrainian General Staff, reminding viewers that the report is in the video description. He notes that personnel losses are high at 1,730 and that losses of other equipment are around average or higher with 7 tanks, 26 armoured fighting vehicles and 25 artillery systems lost.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss List: Analysis (04/01/2025)
🎦 01:09-03:43⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's latest loss list which shows the Russians are losing more equipment than the Ukrainians at a ratio of around 2 to 1. He highlights how the Ukrainians have lost a single tank (damaged), six infantry fighting vehicles (a number of which were BMP-1s), four APCs (including a Striker, M113s and an MTLB). He notes how, unusually, the ratio of damaged to destroyed and abandoned is better for the Russians and that the data show mainly abandoned and destroyed equipment.
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Heavy Losses in Kursk
🎦 03:43-05:38⏩
Jonathan reports comments made by Zelensky that a Russian battalion of North Korean infantry and Russian paratroopers have been lost in fighting in the village of Mnokha in the Kursk region. Jonathan goes on to report that strikes in Luhov and Rilsk in Kursk have also resulted in the deaths of senior officers (two lieutenant colonels) from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division. He analyses the attacks using maps, speculating that they were likely HIMARS strikes.
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Ukrainian Recon Eliminates Russian Chief of Staff
🎦 05:38-06:13⏩
Jonathan reports that a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on the Vasylivka Tokmak highway on the 29/12/2024 killed the chief of staff of the Russian battalion Storm Osetia and his driver.
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Russia Using Less Armour
🎦 06:13-08:03⏩
Jonathan discusses the ISW report that states that Russia is using less armour on the front lines after sustaining significant losses. He observes how footage from the front line appears to confirm this with the Russians resorting to using quads, buggies, SUVs and Mad Max style vehicles. He sees this as evidence of unsustainable attrition, forcing the Russians to change their tactics and points out that this change is acknowledged in the ISW report.
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Another Russian Mi-28 Helicopter Crashes
🎦 08:03-08:47⏩
Jonathan reports on another Russian military helicopter crash in Voronezh Oblast. Both crew members were killed. The cause is unknown, but this is the second helicopter this week to have crashed and could have been the result of Russian air defences.
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Film Shows Extent of Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 08:47-09:41⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a destroyed Russian column near Sharansk. He speculates that, given the fog, this is likely only half of the total losses.
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Fire at Substation in Krasnodar
🎦 09:41-10:07⏩
Jonathan reports a large fire at a substation in Krasnodar that left 55,000 people without power. It's not clear if it was sabotage or an accident.
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Drone Attacks
🎦 10:07-13:31⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest drone attacks. Ukraine reports shooting down 100% of the drones launched by Russia. He speculates about the targets of the Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia (Taganrog, Millerovo and Belgorod) pointing out that Russia will try to hide casualties and damage. He revisits drone footage from two nights ago in Ust-Luga. Photos have emerged since then that indicate that the hydrocarbon infrastructure there may have been hit after all.
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ISW: Kremlin Demands Make Negotiations Impossible
🎦 13:31-14:38⏩
Jonathan reports the ISW assessment that negotiations are impossible as the Kremlin is demanding that Ukraine capitulates. They don't appear willing to compromise. He goes on to mention Trump's pledge to have resolved the war within 24 hours (a day) and how this was clearly disinformation.
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Ukraine Attacks Kursk
🎦 14:38-19:21⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has launched a counter attack in Kursk. He analyses the attack using maps and citing various sources, including WarTranslated. He states that the Ukrainians appear to be attacking Bolshoi Solvetskoye and may have taken the village of Berdin. They may also be attacking in the direction of Leonadovo and Tachino. The Russians are saying that Ukraine is using huge columns in the attack, something only possible because they have secured the air in the region using electronic warfare. Jonathan analyses a number of sources that appear to confirm this, including comments by Fighter Bomber, who claims that the Ukrainians are using fibre optic drones to get around Russian jamming. The same source is calling for the Russians to use aviation to counter the attack but acknowledges that this would be risky. Jonathan finishes by reporting that the Russians are losing troops in the Kinburn area, some due to desertion.
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Russians Attacking in Sumy
🎦 19:21-20:24⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia may be attacking in Sumy - but thinks this is likely just deep reconnaissance groups operating. He shows footage of a car that came under fire from a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group in which two civilians (a brother and sister) were killed.
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180,000 Russian Prisoners Recruited
🎦 20:24-23:19⏩
Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that Russia has recruited up to 180,000 prisoners to fight in Ukraine. Jonathan analyses this, acknowledging how horrific it is, but also observing how it is a very clever tactic in that it avoids placing additional economic strain on the Russian population. The tactic also saves money on prison and rehabilitation services. He compares this with the crypto and klepto mobilisation that Russia is carrying out with migrants in an attempt to keep up the pressure on Ukraine.
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Ukraine Struggling with Recruitment
🎦 23:19-24:15⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has only managed to draft 200,000 men, less than half of the number requested by Valeriy Zaluzhny. He observes that Western arms support has been declining and, without these resources, Ukraine will struggle to regain the initiative. He finishes by highlighting that Russia has stopped paying signing on bonuses to prison recruits.
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Oil Spill Update: Most Rescued Birds Have Died
🎦 24:15-25:34⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the oil spill from the tankers in the Kerch Strait. It is estimated that 90% of the birds rescued have since died, some in transit. Although some were attributed to rough handling, most died as a result of being released before they had been rehabilitated.
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Wrap Up
🎦 25:34-25:49⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching.
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