Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

"Russia sees no issue launching North Korean missiles and Iranian drones in Ukraine at Ukraine from Russia. Ukraine is forbidden from striking invader targets using American weapons. It makes zero sense really - it's silly. Absolutely you can't say this is a red line, you cannot say this is escalatory if Russia is already freaking doing it."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:08⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War Update for 15th May 2024. He reports big explosions in Crimea and a successful strike on Belbek Air Base. In worrying news, the situation near Kharkiv in the south is deteriorating for Ukraine.

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Russian Losses

🎦 00:08-01:05⏩

Jonathan reports significant Russian losses, citing Ukrainian General Staff figures as follows (he notes figures should be treated with caution and provides a link to the source in the video description).

• Personnel: 1,510 (the second highest daily figure since the war began)
• Tanks: 14
• Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 48 (very high)
• Artillery Systems: 23 (above average)

Jonathan believes these figures are to be expected given the level of activity on the front lines. He does not believe these losses are coming from Kharkiv. He references footage emerging of Russian losses on other areas of the front line including Terny and Torska.

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Spartan News: Russian Losses in Dollars

🎦 01:05-02:24⏩

Jonathan cites figures from Spartan News (who calculate the cost of Russian losses using Ukrainian General Staff figures) that Russia is on track to lose 40,000 troops this month. He compares this figure to US losses in Vietnam - 51,000 in a decade. Jonathan points out that the 40,000 figure includes both dead and wounded but that this figure is still far higher than sustainable recruitment numbers for Russia (estimated to be around 30,000 per month).

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Repatriation of Dead Russian Soldiers

🎦 02:24-03:54⏩

Jonathan shows footage of coffins of Russian soldiers prepared for repatriation. He states that whilst both sides will have similar arrangements for their dead, it's unusual to see this type of footage from the Russian side. Jonathan notes that there were discussions at the start of the war about the use of mobile crematoria to deal with the high volume of dead.

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Oryx: Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses

🎦 03:54-05:03⏩

In the absence of data from Andrew Perpetua, Jonathan provides figures from Oryx for Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses. Russia has lost three times more equipment than Ukraine Jonathan lists the Russian equipment losses documented by Oryx including:

• Tanks including the latest T90m
• Various infantry fighting vehicles and APCs
• Multiple Launch Rocket Systems including a TOS 1A thermobaric launcher
• A transporter erector launcher for a Buk M2 surface-to-air missile system

Jonathan notes a destroyed AMN 590951 - he's unsure what this is. Jonathan then lists the Ukrainian equipment losses documented by Oryx which include:

• A damaged and abandoned Abrams tank
• A Marder
• A Saxon (UK tracked vehicle)
• A Humvee with a multiple launch rocket system
• A Strela 10 air defence system
• A launcher for an S300 (a high value target)

Jonathan notes that he is unsure of the timeframes for the data from Oryx. He prefers to use a single source for consistency but this highlights the difficulties in reporting this information. He speculates that Jakub Janowski (who runs Oryx) uses a different timeframe to Andrew Perpetua.

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HIMARS: Russian Howitzer Storage Depleted

🎦 05:03-07:51⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a time lapse showing a Russian howitzer storage area which was shared by Twitter user Jay. The footage (from November 2020) shows the storage area full. Further footage from January 2022 and October 2022 shows that stocks are gradually depleting. The latest footage from March 2024 shows that the storage area is completely empty. Jonathan notes that this is just one storage area and there will be others but it's indicative of the effectiveness of HIMARS in destroying Russian artillery.

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Debate: Shoot and Scoot Tactics

🎦 07:51-09:34⏩

Jonathan discusses the debate sparked by Andrew Perpetua on Twitter about the effectiveness of "shoot and scoot" tactics used by artillery units to avoid being hit by counter battery fire. Jonathan references a tweet from Trent Alanka who states that due to the threat from drones, field artillery is no longer survivable without organic anti-aircraft guns. He is advocating for air defence systems such as Skynex to be deployed with SPGs. He argues that both individual and groups (batteries) of artillery are vulnerable to drone spotted HIMARS strikes. Jonathan references further tweets on this subject:

• Transylvania notes that shoot and scoot is the "secular religion" of the US Army Field Artillery Branch and that Andrew Perpetua's views on this have made him unpopular with them.
• CJ, a member of the Tochny team who trains US artillery officers, states that "shoot and scoot" is not an official doctrinal term used by the US for tube artillery and never has been. He states that he uses Andrew Perpetua's analysis in his training of artillery officers to illustrate this point.

Jonathan speculates that whilst shoot and scoot tactics might have been more effective in the past, the use of drones has changed this and that even with self-propelled artillery, it is the actual process of moving them that makes them so vulnerable.

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Patriot Missile System: The Briansk Ambush

🎦 09:34-12:53⏩

Jonathan discusses the incident in May 2023 when several Russian airframes (five or six) were shot down in the Briansk region of Russia. There was much speculation at the time as to the cause with some suggesting friendly fire from Russian air defences or the use of S200s. It is now accepted that the aircraft were shot down by a German provided Patriot air defence system. Jonathan references a tweet from Rob Lee about this incident in which he confirms that it was a Patriot system that was responsible. John Ridge responds stating that it was known to be a German Patriot system as early as July 2023 and that this was confirmed in an interview with Ukrainian Armed Forces spokesperson Yuri Ichnat in November 2023. It is believed that Germany were not happy about the Patriot system being used to strike targets inside Russia and Jonathan believes that this is the reason why this hasn't happened again.

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Ukraine: Drone Warfare

🎦 12:53-13:48⏩

Jonathan shows footage from a video (which he can't show for copyright reasons but is linked in the video description) from the 47th Mechanised Brigade of a Russian position being destroyed by a Ukrainian first person view (FPV) drone armed with a powerful warhead. The footage shows a group of Russian soldiers taking cover in a building. The drone then hits the building completely levelling it. Jonathan remarks how destructive these drones are becoming. He hasn't seen any explosions this large from Russian drones used against Ukrainian targets but notes that they will have this capability.

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Russia: Unexplained Incidents

🎦 13:48-15:36⏩

Jonathan reports on several incidents in Russia, which he believes are likely linked to the war in Ukraine:

• An electrical substation near Moscow has been set on fire.
• The Progress Factory, a military equipment manufacturer in Moscow, has been set on fire. Jonathan suspects this was down to partisan activity.
• A huge fire has broken out at the Chimprom chemical plant in Novocheboksarsk, Chuvashia. This plant is one of the largest in Russia and produces over 200 different products.

Jonathan notes that there has been a statistically anomalous number of fires in Russia since the start of the war. He cites analysis carried out by pro-Russian sources which prove this. He notes that it is not just the frequency but also the type and size of fire and the locations which are unusual. Jonathan believes that these fires are likely to be related to the war, either through sabotage or through insurance scams, as a result of the economic situation.

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Ukraine: Missiles Hit Mykolaiv

🎦 15:36-15:52⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainian governor Vitaliy Kim has reported that a "couple" of missiles have hit Mykolaiv. He believes this is likely in retaliation for successful Ukrainian strikes the previous night.

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Ukraine: Overnight Attacks on Crimea

🎦 15:52-17:50⏩

Jonathan reports that there were widespread explosions across Crimea last night. Citing information from Max23, he lists locations in Crimea where explosions were heard including Sevastopol, Saki, Simferopol, Balaklava, Novofedorivka, Yevpatoria and Bakhchisaray. There was a confirmed attack on Belbek Air Base with reports from Flash News that air defences in Sevastopol and Yevpatoria were operational. Tim White reported that an oil depot in Rostov (east of Crimea) had also been hit. UP (Ukrainska Pravda) confirmed this, stating that the attack was carried out by GUI drones. Jonathan reports that Russia has closed its airspace and airports in Kazan and Nizhnyakamsk. An air raid warning has been declared. A Russian drone is reported to have been shot down in the village of Verkhny Uslon, Tatarstan. Jonathan believes that this drone could be one of the long range "airplane" drones. Returning to the attacks on Crimea, Jonathan cites a tweet from Tim White in which he speculates that Russia may be short of air defences in occupied Crimea. Russia claims that 10 Ukrainian "attackants" were shot down. Jonathan notes that these "attackants" were likely to have been ballistic missiles, which are difficult to shoot down. Data from NASA's FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) wildfire satellite imagery confirms that there were significant fires at Belbek Air Base.

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Ukraine: Successful Strike on Belbek Air Base

🎦 17:50-20:45⏩

Jonathan analyses the attack on Belbek Air Base. Ukrainian Battle Map reports that 300km range A-TACMS missiles were used in the attack. Jonathan explains that in addition to the 84km missiles used in HIMARS and the 150km missiles (some of which are cluster munitions), Ukraine now has access to the longer range 300km A-TACMS (Army Tactical Missile System). He believes that the A-TACMS used in this attack were also cluster munitions as there is imagery of cluster munitions on the ground. Jonathan shows and analyses imagery from FIRMS. He notes that whilst the imagery predates the attack, it is likely that any Russian aircraft would have been moved given the vulnerability of the base. The imagery shows significant fires burning on the aprons (areas where planes are kept). There are also explosions and fires at nearby buildings. It is unclear whether these buildings contained ammunition. Jonathan shows photos and footage of the attack on Belbek.

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Ukraine: Civilian Casualties in Kharkiv

🎦 20:45-21:27⏩

Jonathan reports that 17 people were wounded yesterday in Kharkiv when a 12 storey residential building was hit. One man is in a serious condition in hospital and children were also amongst the casualties. Jonathan shows footage of the damaged building.

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Ukraine: US Restrictions on Use of Weapons Systems

🎦 21:27-24:46⏩

Jonathan expresses his frustration about the restrictions imposed by the US on the use of US supplied weapons in Ukraine. He is angered that Ukraine is not allowed to use these weapons to attack targets inside Russia. He notes that both the UK and Finland have permitted this. Jonathan reports that Politico are carrying out a story about a new push by Ukraine to get the US to lift the ban. Ukrainian lawmakers are currently in the US lobbying for this. They state that the restrictions on the use of US weaponry prevented them from launching attacks to disrupt Russia's build up in the Kharkiv region and question how many Ukrainians have died as a result. The Biden administration has stipulated that US long range weapons cannot be used to attack targets inside Russia. David Arakhamia, from Zelensky's Servant of the People party has spoken out against the restrictions during a visit to Washington. Jonathan reads out a tweet from War Translated which highlights the hypocrisy of the current situation. Russia has launched attacks from Russian soil on Ukrainian targets using Iranian and North Korean weapons. Yet Ukraine is not allowed to strike back using US weapons. Jonathan is angered by this, stating that Ukraine and the West need to take back the initiative in this war and that this is not escalatory. Colby Badhwar also comments on the situation, highlighting that Russia's recent offensive in Kharkiv could have been disrupted before it even began had it not been for these restrictions. Rob Lee comments that Russia's offensive operations have been conducted from occupied Ukrainian territory making them legitimate targets for US supplied weapons. However, the latest cross border incursion in the north changes things. He urges the US to reconsider its policy.

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Ukraine: Russian Use of Glide Bombs in Kharkiv

🎦 24:46-26:12⏩

Jonathan shows footage of KAB guided glide bombs being used by Russian forces against Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv. He states that these bombs are being released from inside Russia, demonstrating why Ukraine should be allowed to use Western supplied weapons to hit targets on Russian soil. He is angry that nothing was done when Germany objected to their Patriot system being used to shoot down Russian aircraft in the Briansk incident, especially now that the situation in Kharkiv is worsening for Ukraine (partly due to their own failings in fortifying the area).

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Ukraine: Lack of Fortifications in Kharkiv

🎦 26:12-28:30⏩

Jonathan shows imagery from Deep State showing hundreds of "dragon's teeth" anti-tank defences that were supposed to be used in Ukrainian fortifications in Kharkiv. Instead, they are lying unused by the side of the road near the village of Lyptsi, which is currently under Russian control. Ukrainian soldiers state that the defences have been there since summer 2023. Jonathan understands why fortifications weren't built close to the border, as this would have made them vulnerable to drone attacks, but is critical of the lack of fortifications further back. He states that even near the border, mines could have been laid. He reports that Ukrainian forces are retreating from some areas of northern Kharkiv, with the Ukrainian General Staff citing a need to "manoeuvre to more advantageous positions" to avoid casualties.

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Analysis: Russian Strategy

🎦 28:30-31:28⏩

Jonathan considers the rationale for Russia's offensive in the north, having previously questioned the logic of this. He believes that by taking and holding small, strategically unimportant areas of land along the border, Russia will gain leverage in any future negotiations. These small areas of land will become bargaining chips. He acknowledges that this is a long term strategy and that any negotiations could be two years away.

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Report: RUSI - Russian Advantages

🎦 31:28-34:45⏩

Jonathan reports on an article by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The report, entitled "In Ukraine, Russia is beginning to compound advantages", acknowledges that Russia has made small gains in the north. The report states that Russia now has 510,000 troops in Ukraine (giving them numerical superiority), but that heavy losses amongst their officers earlier in the war means that they are restricted to company and platoon sized attacks (rather than brigade or division sized operations) and are therefore unable to completely overwhelm Ukrainian defences. The report details Russia's strategy:

• Apply pressure on several areas of the front line simultaneously (1,200km long). This includes:
  • Sabotage groups operating near Chernihiv
  • A large force near Belgorod threatening Sumy and Kharkiv
  • Activity in Donbas
  • Skirmishes and amphibious raids in Zaporizhia
• Launch an attack on Kharkiv forcing Ukraine to commit reserves to defend the city.
• Apply pressure in the south, threatening to reverse gains made by Ukraine in 2023 and putting the city of Zaporizhia at risk. This will force Ukraine to commit more reserves, weakening their lines further.
• Once Ukrainian reserves are committed in the north and south, Russia will launch its main attack in Donbas, aiming to cut Ukrainian supply lines to Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk.
• Rather than aiming for a decisive breakthrough, Russia will advance slowly and steadily wearing down Ukrainian resolve.
• The report states that the outcome of the war will depend on the level of support (military equipment and mobilisation) provided by the West.

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Russia: Putin's Negotiating Position

🎦 34:45-36:35⏩

Jonathan reiterates his concerns about Russia's strategy in the north and the impact this is having on the situation in the east. He cites a tweet from Jane Keeve which quotes Putin as saying that the starting point for any future peace negotiations with Ukraine will be based on the current front lines and will not involve the withdrawal of Russian troops from any occupied territory. Jonathan believes that this land grab will give Russia a huge amount of leverage in any peace negotiations. He argues that Ukraine's lack of ammunition and personnel (due to insufficient mobilisation) will also weaken their negotiating position.

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Russia: Reshuffle in Military Hierarchy

🎦 36:35-39:40⏩

Jonathan reports on the reshuffle taking place in the upper echelons of the Russian military. Ossetian sources report that Salikov and Krivoruchko (both Deputy Defence Ministers under Shoigu) have submitted their resignations. This follows the arrest of Timur Ivanov (another Deputy Defence Minister) and the investigation into a third deputy. Jonathan is unsurprised by the resignation of Igor Konoshenkov, the Russian Ministry of Defence spokesperson. Throughout the war, Konoshenkov has routinely exaggerated Russian successes and Ukrainian losses, making outlandish claims about the destruction of vast numbers of Ukrainian and NATO personnel and equipment. Jonathan believes that the appointment of Andrei Belusov, who has a background in economics, will be a good one. He doesn't believe that Belusov will concern himself with the day to day running of the war, but will focus on Russia's military industrial output. This is confirmed by a report in the Kyiv Independent, which states that Belusov sees the integration of the military with the Russian economy as his key task.

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Russia: Return of Sergei Surovikin

🎦 39:40-41:01⏩

Jonathan believes that General Gerasimov, the current commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, is likely to be replaced soon. He speculates that Gerasimov is still suffering from the injuries he sustained in the attack on Crimea in which he was initially reported to have been killed. Jonathan reports that General Sergei Surovikin visited the Kremlin yesterday. Surovikin was arrested following the Wagner mutiny but was appointed head of CIS Coordinated Committee for Air Defence in September 2023. Since then, he has spent most of his time in Africa, effectively being kept out of the way. It would be risky to give him a senior position in Ukraine given his close links with Prigozhin. However, Jonathan notes that Ukraine would be concerned by his return as he is a more capable commander than Gerasimov.

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Ukraine: Energy Update

🎦 41:01-41:42⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has lost 8GW of energy capacity as a result of Russian attacks. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal states that Ukraine is having to rely on Western partners to make up for this shortfall. To speed up the repairs to Ukrainian energy infrastructure, bureaucratic procedures are to be streamlined.

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Ukraine: Emergency Power Cuts

🎦 41:42-42:06⏩

The Kyiv Independent reports that emergency power cuts are being introduced across Ukraine as a result of damage sustained during the recent Russian missile attacks.

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Russia: Use of Combat Drugs?

🎦 42:06-42:33⏩

Jonathan reports that the 3rd Assault Brigade is claiming that captured Russian soldiers have reported being given pills to take before going into battle. These pills are said to inhibit fear and reduce risk aversion. Jonathan notes that there have been similar reports throughout the war and throughout history (he cites the example of Viking Berserkers). He concludes that whilst these reports could be psyops, he would not be surprised if they were true, particularly given the use of convicts in the Russian army.

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Wrap Up

🎦 42:33-42:38⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.

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