Ukraine War Update NEWS
Table of Contents 📖
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"This year we will not only defend ourselves but also respond."
Hello Team!
Jonathan shares his experience attending a James concert the previous night, describing it as the greatest gig he's ever been to. He apologizes for the slightly delayed video due to the late night. Jonathan also mentions he has a busy week ahead full of interviews.
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Russian Losses
According to Ukrainian General Staff figures, Russia lost 800 personnel, 7 tanks, 28 armoured personnel vehicles, 44 artillery systems, 5 MLRS, and 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems in the past day. These are still significant losses, particularly in artillery and anti-aircraft systems. Losses also included 9 drones, 1 cruise missile, 27 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 1 piece of special equipment.
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Comparison of Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
Andrew Perpetua, a mapper referred to by Jonathan, shows that while there is sometimes parity in losses between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has had significantly higher losses recently. Notable Ukrainian losses include 3 Leopard 2A4 tanks, which will hurt Ukraine. Jonathan believes Russia has effectively lost the war due to unsustainable equipment losses that will be extremely costly to replace, even if they achieve a pyrrhic victory.
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Attacks on Air Bases and Crimea
- The use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine exceeded expectations and decreased Russian helicopter attacks on Ukrainian troops, according to Alexei Danilov, secretary of the National Security Defense Council.
- There are reports of an attack on Belbek airbase in Crimea, possibly targeting MiG-31 aircraft capable of carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Explosions were also reported near Sevastopol.
- Zelensky stated that Russia has moved their fleet from Crimea and aviation further from Ukraine's borders in response to strikes.
Cyber Attacks and Warfare
Russia has stepped up cyber attacks to disrupt Ukraine's key services, with Ukraine recording nearly 4,000 cyber incidents from January 2022 to September 2023. Jonathan argues that cyber warfare should be treated similarly to conventional warfare in terms of escalation and international response, as the outcomes can be functionally the same (e.g. disabling critical infrastructure).
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Challenges Facing Russian Air Force
- The Russian Air Force (VKS) is facing challenges due to aging Soviet-era aircraft and slow introduction of modern platforms. Many older models are nearing the end of their service lives.
- In the first few months of the Ukraine war, the VKS flew 150-300 sorties per day, but this has fallen to 100 sorties per day, possibly due to losses, maintenance issues, and munitions shortages.
- RAND estimates that by summer 2024, combat losses and imputed flight hour losses may put the VKS below 75% of its pre-war strength, which would be highly debilitating for Russian capabilities.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks listeners for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He appreciates the support and will be back with more updates soon.
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