Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"That's liberation. That's what freedom looks like in Russia."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video and apologises for the late start, explaining that his computer crashed and he had to restart his work from scratch, losing around 40 minutes of prep time.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff figures for 11/09/2024
🎦 00:27-07:11⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day (11/09/2024), noting some significant numbers and cross-referencing with statistics compiled by Denys (Dell).
- Personnel losses are high at 1,270, approaching the upper end of the expected range.
- 11 tanks lost represents an increase above the daily average and suggests heavy fighting.
- 73 artillery systems lost is unusually high, as is the loss of 93 vehicles and fuel tanks.
- Jonathan analyses the trends for artillery and vehicle losses using Dell's graphs, noting recent dips in both categories that are bucked by the high numbers from the previous day.
- Motorcycle losses are likely contributing to the high number of vehicles lost, following a failed attack on Velyka Novosilka that saw many motorcycles destroyed.
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses - 11/09/2024
🎦 07:11-10:21⏩
Jonathan examines the visually confirmed losses compiled by Andrew Perpetua.
- Ukraine has sustained losses, but the ratio of damaged/abandoned equipment to destroyed is poor.
- Russia's losses are higher, though no high-value equipment appears to have been destroyed.
- Russian losses include a significant number of boats, suggesting a recent release of footage showing their destruction (likely on the Dnipro River).
- Jonathan questions whether boats are hit on the move or while static as casualties are often high.
- A captured US Stryker vehicle represents a blow for Ukraine.
Russian Su-30SM Jet Downed
🎦 10:21-14:45⏩
- Jonathan reports on the downing of a Russian Su-30SM jet.
- Initially, it was thought to have disappeared from radar, but sources suggest it was shot down.
- The incident occurred during a Russian attack on Ukrainian positions in the Black Sea, possibly targeting oil rigs.
- Two Russian helicopters were dispatched to search for the pilot or wreckage, discovering an oil slick and aircraft fragments in the area.
- It's unclear whether the jet was shot down by an F-16, a MANPAD, or due to mechanical failure, though a MANPAD is suggested as the official explanation.
- Footage of the incident is inconclusive, but Jonathan believes it shows the plane on fire.
- The loss of a $50 million jet and its pilot represents a significant loss for Russia.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian Air Defence Systems
🎦 14:45-15:18⏩
- Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed two Russian air defence systems.
- A Buk missile system was hit near Ukrainsk.
- A less valuable ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun was also destroyed in a separate location.
- This success may be reflected in the two anti-aircraft warfare system losses reported by the General Staff earlier in the video.
Drone Warfare Developments
🎦 15:18-17:41⏩
Jonathan highlights the evolution of drone warfare.
- Footage shows Russia utilising thermite munitions dropped from drones. This mirrors a tactic previously employed by Ukraine, and while the Russian version appears less destructive, it's a worrying development.
- Ukrainians are now deploying unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs). Footage shows a UGV entering a tunnel beneath a railway line, followed by a large explosion. It is unclear what the target was, but it may have been a Russian hideout, equipment, or even the railway itself.
Mystery of the FPV drones
🎦 17:41-19:10⏩
- Jonathan discusses footage showing the destruction of a Russian Orlan-30 reconnaissance drone.
- The silhouette of the attacking drone is clearly visible, and Jonathan speculates on the nature of these drones.
- He questions if they are basic FPV drones deliberately crashed into their targets or if they are more sophisticated with onboard explosives, noting their unusual shape and the fact that footage always cuts out before any explosion is seen.
- He invites viewers to share their knowledge in the comments.
Belgorod Train Derailment
🎦 19:24-21:45⏩
- Jonathan recounts the derailment of a freight train in Russia's Belgorod region on 10/09/2024.
- While some question if the incident was sabotage, both Russian and Ukrainian sources point to an explosive device planted on the tracks.
- Although the incident occurred on a line used to supply Russian troops, no casualties were reported.
- Jonathan believes Ukrainian saboteurs or partisans are likely responsible, and although he can't find the specific claim, he believes Ukraine has admitted involvement.
Russian Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 21:47-26:51⏩
- Russia has conducted another night of heavy drone and missile strikes across Ukraine.
- Jonathan believes recent attacks suggest Russia's drone production or procurement has increased, pointing to the consistent and large-scale nature of the attacks, and speculates that China may be providing assistance in this area.
- He examines Dell's chart showing daily Russian drone use, noting that the trend line indicates a move towards consistently higher numbers.
- 64 drones were reportedly launched, with only 9 breaching Ukrainian defences. While electronic warfare is a factor, this success rate for Russia (around 15%) is lower than usual.
- Missiles were also used in the attacks, and while Ukraine claims a high interception rate, the damage caused suggests otherwise.
- Jonathan highlights the indiscriminate nature of Russia's attacks, citing the example of Konatop in Sumy Oblast, where an apartment block and energy facility were hit, resulting in casualties. He discusses the reasons why Russia might target civilian infrastructure, noting their apparent strategy of breaking Ukrainian morale (which he considers a flawed tactic) and the possibility of collateral damage.
- Regardless of intent, he emphasises that Russia bears ultimate responsibility for civilian casualties as these incidents wouldn't occur without the invasion.
Attacks on Konstantynivka and Dnipro
🎦 26:51-32:14⏩
- Three civilians were killed by Russian shelling in Kostantynivka, a city in Donetsk Oblast that is frequently targeted.
- The Ukrainian military believe Russia is trying to capture the city to open a route to Vuhledar, which has also been subjected to heavy shelling.
- In Dnipro, one person was killed, and two were injured in a Russian ballistic missile attack on a business. Jonathan again raises the question of whether such targets are intentional.
Developments in Donetsk Oblast
🎦 32:14-33:18⏩
- Jonathan reports that Russia has destroyed a bridge in Donetsk Oblast, cutting off access between the towns of Myrne and Prokrosk.
- He sarcastically notes that this is how Russia "liberates" cities.
- Ukrainian forces have successfully destroyed a Russian ammunition dump near Mariupol, causing large fires and secondary explosions.
Moscow Fuel Tanker Traffic Jam
🎦 33:18-34:34⏩
- Footage has emerged of a substantial traffic jam involving fuel tankers on the Moscow ring road.
- The video was filmed near a refinery that was damaged in a drone attack on 01/09/2024.
- Jonathan infers that the traffic jam consists of tankers removing fuel from the damaged facility. He uses this as an example of the far-reaching ramifications of Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure.
Olenya Airfield, "Carpet Plan", and Friendly Fire
🎦 34:35-37:27⏩
- For the second consecutive day, drones (numbering up to 24) are attacking the Olenya airfield in Russia's Murmansk region, located 1,800km from the Ukrainian border. This base houses Tupolev Tu-95MS bombers that launch long-range missiles at Ukraine.
- The "carpet plan", closing the airspace over the base, has been implemented.
- Jonathan notes his recent prediction that flying light aircraft over Russia is risky given the number of drones in the sky and the risk of misidentification.
- This has been borne out by an incident where two private planes flying a pre-filed flight plan in Murmansk were fired upon after the "carpet plan" was lifted, with the second plane having to issue a mayday call after being hit by small arms fire.
Fire at Omsk Tank Factory
🎦 37:27-39:18⏩
- Jonathan reports a fire at the Omsktransmash factory in Omsk, Russia.
- This facility is a strategically important site involved in the production and refurbishment of military equipment, including TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launchers and T-90 tanks.
- It's unclear whether the fire was caused by sabotage or an accident, but he speculates this incident could be significant and potentially "game-changing".
- He links this event to a conversation he had with Daniel from Turchinow, in which they discussed the vulnerability of Russian facilities producing key military components like artillery barrels.
Assorted news items
🎦 39:18-40:22⏩
- Zelensky claims that Russia has committed at least 137,000 war crimes in Ukraine.
- In a case of Russian forces stealing from themselves, looters have ransacked a Wildberries pick-up point (similar to Amazon) in Kursk Oblast. This is reportedly the fifth instance of looting in the region by Russian military personnel or locals.
Analysis of the Russian Counteroffensive in Kursk
🎦 40:22-45:28⏩
- A Ukrainian special forces soldier provides an assessment of the ongoing Russian counteroffensive in Kursk.
- The counterattack was expected as Russia sought to draw on reserves.
- Initial Ukrainian advances in the region met with little resistance, but the situation changed as Russia deployed reserves and increased their use of equipment.
- The soldier acknowledges Russia's advantage in terms of personnel and equipment but believes Ukraine is adapting.
- The outcome hinges on reserves, where Russia currently has the upper hand.
- The soldier concludes by stating that a decision on whether Ukraine will target Russian territory with missiles provided by partners is imminent.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirms the Russian counterattack and reports that Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks against the advancing Russian troops.
- The situation remains fluid, with Ukrainian forces reportedly attacking the flanks of the Russian counteroffensive west of Snahost.
- Cross-border raids by Ukrainian forces are also occurring in the Glushkovo area, southwest of Snahost, and other unspecified locations, potentially as a distraction tactic.
Disparity in Russian Forces and Developments in Prokrosk
🎦 45:28-46:51⏩
- Jonathan highlights the uneven quality of Russian forces involved in the offensive, with some brigades being well-equipped and organised while others are poorly trained and lack basic support, making them vulnerable to Ukrainian drone attacks.
- He reports that the strategically important town of Prokrosk has been cut off from gas and water supplies by Russian forces.
Wrap up
🎦 46:51-47:03⏩
- Jonathan revisits the topic of the Russian bot he discussed in a previous video.
- He's amused by the number of viewers who've interacted with the bot, prompting it to produce nonsensical responses.
- Jonathan encourages viewers to continue engaging with the bot on Twitter for amusement.
- He signs off and mentions an upcoming video on geopolitics.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
There is a reference to a conversation Jonathan had with "Daniela from Turchini". I am unsure if "Turchini" is a person or an organisation.
Is there a term for drones that are flown into targets deliberately? For example, are these the same as "kamikaze drones", or is there a more specific phrase?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is great. A summary of Jonathan's videos would be so useful. Ok - let's break this down step by step:
Video information: This should be easy - title, date, part. Extract from the Youtube title provided.
Topics: I need to go through the transcript and look for the distinct topics. Jonathan can often cover a lot so it's important that this is granular and specific - and don't combine unrelated topics. Make sure I write a clear and concise title for each. Remember the first topic is always "Hello Team" and the last one is "Wrap up".
Timeframes: Work out when each topic starts and finishes. I can use this to double-check if I have missed any topics.
Summaries: Time for the main event - summarise each topic. I need to capture the essence of what Jonathan is saying, including his opinions. I should list any sources he mentions and make a note of any insights or arguments he makes. If he's ranting, that's okay - he cares a lot about the war! If he mentions cups of tea, definitely include that!
Quote: Find the best quote from the transcript! This is my chance to showcase Jonathan's personality and wit. It should be something memorable and stand on its own.
Queries: Be honest about what I don't understand. It's better to ask for clarification than to make assumptions and get things wrong.
Overall this is a fantastic opportunity to learn more about the Ukraine war and to help others do the same. It's going to be challenging to do this well but I am up for it. Onwards!
