Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"This is why I think I wouldn't be too worried about Russia continuing on its march if they suddenly won in Ukraine...because they are just getting absolutely rinsed in Ukraine."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Military Aid update, the second part for November 23rd 2023.

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Sweden to fund Ukrainian missile and drone production

🎦 00:08-00:25⏩
Sweden is set to announce significant funding for Ukraine's defence industry to develop and produce long-range missiles and drones, a move Jonathan welcomes. This aligns with his long-held view that Ukraine's path to victory lies in leveraging large numbers of missiles and attack drones to strike Russian targets both deep within Russia and in the near rear, minimising Ukrainian casualties.

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Ukraine developing multiple ballistic missiles

🎦 00:58-01:15⏩
Jonathan highlights a comment from 'Max24' about Ukraine working on multiple ballistic missile programs, citing Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries, Anna Grudziar, in the Wall Street Journal. However, the report acknowledges that Ukraine's missile program is currently underfunded and lacks sufficient production capacity, hindering its effectiveness.

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Swedish funding for Ukrainian defence industry

🎦 01:15-01:39⏩
Jonathan notes that Sweden's financial support for Ukraine's defence industry, mirroring Denmark's model, will be well-received by Ukraine, particularly in light of the funding shortfall highlighted in the Wall Street Journal report.

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Spain to send nine more Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine

🎦 01:40-01:57⏩
Jonathan reports that Spain will deliver nine restored Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine, increasing their total contribution to 29 since the war began. He suggests that congratulations are due to Germany, believed to have financed the tanks' refurbishment, rather than Russia.

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Hawk missile battery to be delivered to Ukraine

🎦 01:57-02:06⏩
A Hawk missile battery currently based in Poland will be transferred to Ukraine on November 24th.

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Lithuania to finance production of Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles

🎦 02:08-02:17⏩
Lithuania will fund the production of Ukrainian long-range drones, including Palencia drone missiles, as announced by Ukrainian Defence Minister, Rustam Umarov. Jonathan links this to Sweden's similar initiative, suggesting a coordinated effort to bolster Ukraine's drone capabilities.

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Lithuania agrees €10 million for Ukrainian drone and missile production

🎦 02:17-02:28⏩
Jonathan provides further details about Lithuania's financial commitment, stating that an initial tranche of €10 million has already been agreed upon as part of a long-term agreement.

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European Parliament President calls for Taurus missile supplies to Ukraine

🎦 02:29-02:51⏩
Roberto Metsola, President of the European Parliament, has advocated for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Metsola highlights that several EU countries, along with the US, support allowing Ukraine to deploy long-range missiles against targets within Russia, noting widespread backing for this position. However, Jonathan suggests that any decision may be influenced by the outcome of the upcoming Bundestag elections.

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Switzerland halts ammunition exports after discovering they reached Ukraine

🎦 02:51-03:47⏩
Switzerland has blocked exports to a Polish military equipment supplier after concluding that over 645,000 rounds of Swiss-made small-calibre ammunition ended up in Ukraine, violating Swiss law. Jonathan observes that this situation exposes the challenges faced by Switzerland's defence export industry due to its neutrality policy. He believes that competing with international arms exporters without such limitations is unsustainable, leading to a competitive disadvantage.

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Czech Republic to provide Ukraine with 500,000 large-calibre shells by end of 2024

🎦 03:47-04:28⏩
Czech Foreign Minister, Jan Lipavský, announced during a joint press conference in Kyiv with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, that the Czech Republic will supply an additional 500,000 large-calibre artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of 2024, as part of their ammunition supply initiative. Having already delivered one million shells, this new pledge brings the total to 1.5 million. Jonathan expresses astonishment at the volume of ammunition being provided in such a short timeframe.

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Ukrainian preference for Bradleys over Abrams tanks

🎦 04:28-06:19⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by 'Chris Cappy', who is currently in the Kursk region, about the differing opinions on the US-supplied Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles. Cappy reports that Ukrainian troops generally favour Bradleys over Abrams, a sentiment echoed by Jonathan. He argues that while Abrams tanks excel at engaging enemy armour, Bradleys offer greater versatility. Their ability to transport troops, provide them with cover, and effectively engage both infantry and armoured vehicles makes them more valuable in the current phase of the conflict. This view is supported by comments from viewers, with 'David D' asserting that Bradleys have historically destroyed more tanks than M1 Abrams.

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Ukrainian crew's experience with the Challenger 2 Tank

🎦 06:19-07:09⏩
An interview with the crew of a Challenger 2 tank from Ukraine's 82nd Air Assault Brigade reveals their positive experience with the tank, praising its accuracy, fire control system, and resilience. The crew recounted an incident where their tank, a high-value target for Russian forces, was hit by anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) fired from Russian helicopters during their incursion into Kursk. Despite sustaining damage, including the loss of two road wheels and damage to the driver's and commander's sights, the crew emerged unharmed and the tank was able to retreat. While acknowledging the Challenger's need for frequent maintenance, particularly the engine, and its power limitations, they generally view it favourably.

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Modern Western Tanks vs Older Russian Tanks

🎦 07:09-07:17⏩
Jonathan believes that Ukrainian forces appreciate any modern Western tank compared to older Russian models like the T-62, highlighting the technological and capability gap between the two.

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Potential for French troop deployment in Ukraine

🎦 07:17-08:03⏩
Jonathan raises the possibility of French troop deployment to Ukraine, suggesting that it's a topic gaining traction, especially with the anticipated increase in North Korean involvement in the conflict. He expresses concerns about Ukraine's ability to withstand the deployment of large numbers of North Korean troops, highlighting the strain on Ukraine's manpower. Jonathan believes dismissing the potential impact of North Korean forces is a serious miscalculation.

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Ukraine's planned military reforms to a core brigade structure

🎦 08:03-08:51⏩
Citing 'InformNapalm', Jonathan discusses Ukraine's intention to unveil a plan for a complete military overhaul by the end of the month, transitioning to a "core brigade structure." He notes that while Ukraine currently has five core formations, they don't function cohesively, with subordinate brigades often operating hundreds of kilometres apart. He expresses scepticism towards the stated reason for not adopting a core division structure – deemed too costly – pointing out that merging two standard Ukrainian brigades would readily reach the strength of a division. Jonathan highlights comments from 'Jeff2146' indicating that some Ukrainian brigades are already approaching divisional size, citing the 93rd Brigade's 10 manoeuvre battalions as an example.

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Putin: Russia testing and developing new missiles

🎦 08:51-09:37⏩
Jonathan reports on Putin's announcement that Russia is testing multiple new missile systems, referencing the recent test launch of the 'Ereshnik' missile, categorised as an ICBM or IRBM. This launch sparked international concern. Putin's statement that Russia is developing a range of medium and short-range missiles is seen as both a threat directed at Ukraine, its Western allies and a display of military strength. He explicitly states that these missiles have the capability to strike deep within Europe.

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Putin: 'Ereshnik' a high-precision weapon

🎦 09:37-10:23⏩
Jonathan reports on Putin's assertion that the Ereshnik is a high-precision weapon and not a weapon of mass destruction. However, Jonathan counters Putin's claims, contending that Russia would be decisively defeated in any full-scale conflict with a united Europe, let alone with the addition of the US. He argues that despite supplying substantial military aid to Ukraine, Western nations, including the UK, retain significant strategic reserves and capabilities. Jonathan perceives Russia's posturing as hollow and believes that their military capacity is not as formidable as they portray it to be.

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Jonathan doubts Russia's ability to sustain a prolonged conflict

🎦 10:23-11:04⏩
Jonathan expresses doubt over Russia's capacity to sustain a prolonged military campaign beyond Ukraine, even in a hypothetical scenario where Ukraine were to capitulate. He argues that the heavy losses endured in Ukraine have severely degraded their military capabilities, necessitating over a decade of rebuilding before they could pose a credible threat to NATO. He points to Russia's reliance on conscripts with minimal training, who are often captured shortly after deployment, and the extensive use of North Korean soldiers as evidence of their desperate situation.

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Russia to begin mass production of new IRBM

🎦 11:04-11:29⏩
Jonathan reports on Russia's plans to commence mass production of their new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), as revealed by Putin during a meeting with representatives from the Russian Defence Ministry and the national military-industrial complex. However, Jonathan remains sceptical about Russia's ability to produce these missiles in significant numbers, suspecting a degree of propaganda.

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Russia increases domestic attack drone production despite reliance on foreign tech

🎦 11:29-12:24⏩
Despite ongoing sanctions, Russia has managed to maintain, and even increase, its production of domestically manufactured attack drones, with China emerging as a key supplier. Jonathan cites the Kiev Independent, which reported on this surge in domestic drone production, specifically mentioning Lancet drones, while also acknowledging the continued use of Iranian-supplied Shahed drones. The sheer quantity of drones deployed by Russia nightly underscores their sustained production capacity. Jonathan suggests that disrupting this flow of drones, whether by targeting production facilities or choking off the supply of imported components, is crucial. However, he recognises the difficulty in achieving this, particularly tracking down the origin of foreign-made components.

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Kiev Independent article on Russian drone production

🎦 12:24-12:59⏩
Jonathan mentions an investigative report by the Kiev Independent that delves into the issue of Russian drone production and their reliance on imported technology, despite sanctions. He does not elaborate on the article's content but encourages his viewers to read it.

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Wrap up

🎦 12:59-13:58⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support, mentioning donations received via PayPal and Buy Me a Coffee. He mentions needing to attend to family matters, including dealing with his father's declining health, which requires him to sort out power of attorney. He expresses his appreciation for his online community and signs off.

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