Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News
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"If you've got something that is, to me, so obviously moral, where the Russians are the perpetrators, the aggressors, the invaders, you cannot have anyone in the EU supporting that. It will be the eventual downfall of the EU."
Military Aid
- EU affirming security commitments to Ukraine and pledging winter aid packages, but Hungary and Slovakia are a challenge for EU unity and effectiveness in helping Ukraine
- Germany's winter package has arrived in Ukraine according to Tendar, including:
- Another IRIS-T SLM and SLS air defense system (short and medium range)
- Another TRML-4D radar system from Hensoldt
- Missiles for the air defense systems
- Munitions for the MARS 2 multiple launch rocket system (similar to HIMARS)
- 8 Vector surveillance drones
- 4 HX81 8x8 flatbed trailers
- 4 ground radars
- 4 APCs (undisclosed type)
- 6 border patrol vehicles
- 155mm ammunition
- Slovenia secretly handed over a batch of Belin drones to Ukraine. C-Astral employee Jenni Moderk said engineers are improving protection of the new Belin V drone version to make it invulnerable to enemy EW systems.
Necessity is the Mother of Invention
A drone has been created in Ukraine for demining which works 4 times faster than people. If it goes wrong, no person dies. Jonathan compares this to driverless cars - people don't trust them due to prototypes going wrong, but humans are routinely bad drivers with many accidents. We distrust computers and AI, putting more trust in error-prone humans.
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Military Aid to Russia
More masked snatch squads are rounding up victims, including immigrants, for Russia's war. 40 immigrants were detained at Norilsk airport, some working as illegal taxi drivers. Krasnoyarsk council recently issued military summonses to migrants. Racial profiling is suspected. Jonathan notes many migrants may end up on the front lines soon.
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Geopolitics
- The 3rd Ukraine Peace Summit opened in Malta, Russia was not invited and is unhappy. Some are participating via video link. Unclear if China is represented but it has good global reach.
- EU leaders back using proceeds from frozen Russian assets in favour of Ukraine (Financial Times). The European Commission is expected to put forward legal proposals in early December. Jonathan thinks this is a brilliant idea and hopes it happens without legal ramifications from Russia.
- Kevin McCarthy, the new Republican House majority speaker, emphasised he will seek compromises with Democrats on assistance to Ukraine. This clearly means the volume will decrease and there will be more control over disbursement. Whatever Democrats want to give/do for Ukraine, less will be given/done. This worries Jonathan as McCarthy is starting out saying he wants less for Ukraine.
- In a conversation with UK PM Rishi Sunak, Zelensky noted the Ukrainian grain corridor will continue working despite Russia's actions in the Black Sea.
- An important point was made on Andrew Perpetua's livestream about Ukraine's inability to effectively rebuild their economy and defence industry. Ports are crucial for imports of raw materials needed for manufacturing. Ukraine is hamstrung on grain exports and what they can produce themselves for defence. They have to rely on Western aid, not through want of trying. Russia's actions in the Black Sea leave no other way.
- Italian company Kamozzi Group has been included in the list of international sponsors of war. It continues business in Russia, cooperates with the Russian military industrial complex, and its plant operates in occupied Crimea. Sanctions mean nothing to them. Jonathan thinks pressure should be put on Kamozzi.
Russia's Economic Troubles
- The Bank of Russia increased the key interest rate from 13% to 15%, which is not a good sign. It's a deflationary measure to bring inflation down by encouraging saving over spending. But it means less economic stimulus as the cost of loans increases.
- Russia is fighting economic fires on multiple fronts. Solving one problem exacerbates others.
- Yesterday, Russia's parliament passed a big increase in the 2024 military budget, despite falling income and depleting reserves. Expect massive public service cutbacks which will increase unemployment and government welfare spending.
- Russia appears to be taking an austerity approach as borrowing options are limited with halved reserves. They are spending 1/3 of the entire budget on the war.
- As an example, Perham National Research University is sacking 50 staff. Those people will draw welfare and minimally spend on essentials. The money multiplier effect is lost, having a real shrinking effect on the economy.
EU Disunity on Israel-Gaza
EU leaders spent most of Thursday crafting a common position on Israel-Gaza. A day later they voted in every which way at the UN on a pro-Palestinian resolution for a humanitarian truce:
- France voted in favour
- Germany abstained
- Austria voted against
Ukraine abstained, which some are calling problematic given parallels between Ukraine and Gaza. This might cause kickback against Ukraine in terms of some international support.
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Orban's Appeasement of Russia
Jonathan spends several minutes discussing Hungarian PM Viktor Orban's appeasement of Russia, drawing parallels to Chamberlain and Hitler prior to WW2.
- Orban says Hungary is following a "peace strategy" and his recent meeting with Putin served this purpose. He wants to keep communication open with Russia or "there will be no chance of peace".
- Jonathan strongly disagrees, arguing Orban is speaking in favour of the kind of peace Russia wants - to keep everything they've got with no more war, effectively letting them win. Orban is a Russian appeaser, stopping €500M EU aid packages to Ukraine.
- Pressure is mounting from EU leaders who are openly dissing Orban:
- Luxembourg's PM said the Putin meeting was disrespectful to Ukrainian soldiers
- Macron condemned Orban, saying bilateral contacts with Europe's foremost enemy should be coordinated with the EU. He reproached Orban in front of other leaders.
- The Lithuanian president said it's "really more than strange to see that we start to flirt with the regime who's committing very cruel atrocities"
- Jonathan personally thinks Orban should be thrown out of the EU or threatened with it to see if it brings him in line. The problem is there is no mechanism to forcibly remove an EU member.
- A short meme video sums up Orban's isolation in Europe, showing him alone and grumpy while other leaders are together and happy.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share as he really appreciates the support. He mentions he is doing a live interview with his friend Hanny Selim from Critical Faculty in Australia. They will discuss Israel-Palestine, politics and philosophy. Hanny is a secular humanist of half-Irish, half-Egyptian descent so Jonathan thinks he will have some interesting observations to share from his background. Jonathan will try to mirror the interview on his channel and encourages people to check it out.
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