Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"They're smelling blood, really. They're sensing that the Ukrainians don't have the ability to just hit them with artillery which you absolutely need. Artillery is how you've got to war still in this in this war."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:29⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel and gives a shout out to JR, who has redesigned his maps - Russia in red, Belarus in yellow and the occupied territories in puce (which Jonathan quite likes). He explains that this update will focus on the changes to the frontline, which has seen a lot of movement in favour of the Russians.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northeastern front

🎦 01:29-03:05⏩

Jonathan explains that there has been a lot of movement on the Northeastern front, with the Russians gaining territory in the Ivanovka region. He describes seeing this on both DeepStateMap and Andrew Perpetua's maps, where the Russians have taken control of a tree line and ridge area. Jonathan notes that the pro-Russian mapper, Syriac Maps, shows the Russians in control of a large area around Krok-Malna-Tabaivka, but this is only half confirmed by DeepStateMap and not by Andrew Perpetua. He concludes by observing that the frontline around Terni and Torska appears to have stabilised for now.

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Svatove-Kreminna front: Bilohorivka, Makiivka and the filtration plant

🎦 03:05-06:06⏩

Jonathan begins by referencing the Suriat Maps which shows small Russian gains North of Makiivka. He then reviews the situation around Bilohorivka and the filtration plant, which has now been captured by the Russians according to all the mappers (DeepStateMap, Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Maps). He explains that the Russians are now in control of the hills to the Northwest, although he cautions that it would not be a surprise to see the Ukrainians attempt to reclaim it as this area has changed hands several times. Zooming in on the area around the filtration plant, Jonathan notes that the Russians aim to capture the southern hill and end the Battle of Bilohorivka, which would force a Ukrainian retreat. Examining the topography of the area, he describes a quarry where the topography favours the Ukrainians - the Russians would struggle to attack across the valley and up the steep hill, particularly if the Ukrainians have sufficient artillery and mortar ammunition. However, he concedes that the Russians have been trying to advance down the steeper hill and have captured some tree lines there. Jonathan is hopeful that the topography around the filtration plant will favour the Ukrainians in their defence.

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Bakhmut Front

🎦 06:06-12:48⏩

Jonathan begins with the Suriat Maps which suggests Ukrainian gains around the Orokovo-Vasilyevka area, although he suspects this could be a "rejig" and notes that he has yet to see any explicit confirmation of this. Moving South, Jonathan notes that the mapping from JR and Syriac Maps do not concur. JR suggests Russian gains and a rollback from 2 days prior, although Jonathan is unsure what this means. He remarks that it's not unusual for Syriac Maps to make changes that give the appearance of gains for one side or the other. War Monitor reports that Ukrainian forces repelled 17 large assaults in the areas of Bohdanivka and Klishchivka, destroying significant amounts of Russian equipment and manpower, highlighting the intensity of the attacks. Jonathan reviews Suriat Maps, which indicate that the situation North of Ivaniske is challenging for the Ukrainians around the "Road of Life" which enabled Ukraine to maintain supply lines to Bakhmut when they were defending it. He notes that the Suriat Maps show that the Russians are making progress down both roads, taking land as they advance. However, this is not yet reflected in JR's maps, although it is possible that this is due to be updated, or it could be that Google has removed the update. Examining the DeepStateMap and Suriat Maps, Jonathan observes that the Russians appear to have made significant gains, which Suriat Maps confirm in their update, claiming that the Russians have taken full control of the Popasna Forest and are now shelling the last remaining Ukrainian positions in the area. They also report that Russian reinforcements have arrived and are planning an attack on Chasiv Yar, which would involve them taking control of the Ukrainian defensive belt overlooking the town of Ivaniske. Once this is achieved, they plan to renew their attacks from Bakhmut and Popasna, with the aim of forcing the Ukrainians to abandon Chasiv Yar. Jonathan believes that this would allow the Russians to take Ivaniske and advance on Chasiv Yar. He is concerned that this would leave the Ukrainians in trouble, as it would allow the Russians to also advance further South and surround Klishchivka. He acknowledges that this is bullish language from Suriat Maps, but concedes that if accurate, then it doesn't bode well for the Ukrainians. He observes that Chasiv Yar is becoming increasingly vulnerable, although it is very well defended. However, the Ukrainians are low on supplies. Moving on to the Rybar map, Jonathan reminds viewers to take the information with a pinch of salt, as this source is very pro-Russian, being aligned with the Wagner Group. However, he notes that the map does show large-scale Russian advances North of Ivaniske (although not on the scale suggested by Suriat Maps). The Rybar map confirms the capture of Popasna Forest, with the Russians having advanced along the highway to Chasiv Yar and West of Bakhmut. It also reports that Russian forces pushed the Ukrainians back 1km along the highway to Kramatorsk. The map also confirms that Russian forces have taken control of Popasna Forest and retaken their lost positions in Bohdanivka (although Jonathan notes that this has not been reflected in the mapping yet). Jonathan suspects that the retaken area in Bohdanivka is to the South of the settlement, but acknowledges that he would need to look at the maps more closely to confirm. However, he advises caution about the information from Rybar. Next, Jonathan examines the situation around Kurdyumivka, noting that the Syriac Maps and DeepStateMap suggest Russian gains, whilst acknowledging that the blue on the Syriac Maps could represent Ukrainian gains. He describes the fighting around this area as a "push and shove". He goes on to explain that Suriat Maps report that the Russians have made small advances around the lakes South East of Klishchivka, aiming to take the railway section running from there to Andriivka, which is still under Ukrainian control (or within the grey zone). The map shows that the Russians have succeeded in retaking the Northern part of the lakes.

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Avdiivka Front

🎦 12:48-19:09⏩

Jonathan predicts challenging times ahead for the Ukrainians in Andriivka, noting that the Syriac Maps suggest a rejigging of control. He explains that the situation in Avdiivka is not looking good for the Ukrainians. Whilst the Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua's maps show a lot of gains for the Russians, he notes that this is largely a confirmation of previous claims made on Suriat Maps, so doesn't necessarily represent new advances, just an alignment of mapping. He reports that Russian sources suggest that their forces are approaching the Avdiivka supply artery to the West of the coke and chemical plants, which could complicate logistics and the ability to reinforce Ukrainian troops, raising concerns about a potential encirclement. Jonathan highlights the vulnerability of the logistics situation, explaining that the only paved road into Avdiivka is the one shown, with all other access roads being mud roads that are challenging to navigate at this time of year. The situation is equally challenging for the road to the coke plant and for those serving the residential areas, where it is believed that the remaining civilians are located. Jonathan notes that Suriat Maps show the Russians pushing up into the residential areas to the Northwest of the "Hota" restaurant area. Turning his attention to the Northeast of the quarry lake, Jonathan explains that Suriat Maps report that the Russians are pushing the Ukrainians back, making gains along Perseus-Travneva Street in Pervomaiskyi. Although some Russian sources suggest that their forces have reached Skilna and Lenina Streets, this has not been confirmed, although Suriat Maps do state that the Ukrainians are retreating to these areas due to the Russian advance. Jonathan points out that although some Russian sources have made broader claims about gains in this area, the new gains are actually confined to the area marked in red. He concludes that the situation in Avdiivka is not looking good, with the commander of the Southern Strategic Group, Tarnavsky, reporting the arrival of fresh Russian troops in the Donbas area. Jonathan believes that although the Russian advance on Avdiivka continues, the reinforcements mentioned by Tarnavsky are likely to be destined for Avdiivka and Vuhledar, the areas where the Russians are making the most gains. However, he doubts that they would be used to counter attack and retake lost territory, as that would be too ambitious, speculating that they will be used to shore up key areas in readiness for an operational withdrawal, so that troops are not left cut off. Jonathan is worried by the situation in Avdiivka, pointing out that the paved road is very close to being interdicted (and will certainly be under Russian fire control). He warns that if the Russians capture the area to the North West of Avdiivka, then both the city and the coke plant will be cut off from the main supply route, making the situation “really, really dodgy”. Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians may be planning to make a rapid withdrawal from Avdiivka to avoid being surrounded and captured, as the situation is so precarious. This might appear to be a capitulation, but it may be the only option open to them. His concerns are further increased by reports (supported by footage) that Russian forces are routinely shooting Ukrainian POWs, with “more and more footage coming out that suggests that surrendered Ukrainian troops are being shot by the Russians”. Jonathan is clearly disturbed by these reports, which were relayed to him by Greg and Zhenya who have seen the footage from reliable sources.

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Donetsk Front: Vuhledar, Marinka, Velyka Novosilka

🎦 19:09-24:36⏩

Moving South to Vuhledar, Jonathan explains that Suriat Maps shows minor Russian gains to the North West of Marinka, towards Rivnopil, and a Ukrainian retreat to the North of Marinka (a small victory for the Ukrainians). Turning his attention to Vuhledar, Jonathan observes that Suriat Maps shows further Russian gains and explains that the capture of the cemetery and part of the industrial area to the South of Vuhledar is significant, as the Russians have also started to push through the Eastern and Northeastern parts of the settlement. Jonathan examines the map further, highlighting that DeepStateMap appears to confirm the Russian advances West of Solodke, showing them advancing even further. He finds this worrying and notes that Russian advances are taking place right along the Eastern front, creating a precarious situation for the Ukrainians, commenting that “things are definitely dodgy for the Ukrainians, there’s no doubt about it”. He goes on to explain that these gains have been made possible because the Ukrainians have been forced to ration their artillery shells. He recounts a conversation in his comments, where a viewer stated that he keeps banging on about drones (and the heavy personnel losses that result). However, Jonathan explains that whilst drones have undoubtedly played a key role in the Ukrainian defence, they cannot compensate for a lack of artillery shells. He explains that he has seen recent footage where the Ukrainians were only able to fire one artillery shell at a large group of Russian troops, where previously they would have fired six to ten. He describes how he previously analysed footage showing between 20 to 30 mortar and artillery shells landing in a small area (to take out around 10 enemy troops). However, the recent footage, which showed an even larger, more densely packed, group of Russian troops, elicited only one Ukrainian shell in response, which although accurate, would normally have resulted in six to ten being fired. Jonathan is angry about the situation, describing it as a “shame” and “an absolute crime”. He believes that Ukraine desperately needs more equipment, as artillery is key to winning this war. He concludes by reviewing the situation in Velyka Novosilka, where the Ukrainians have made small gains around another Donetsk area on the Syriac Map, although it is not clear how significant these are, or if this is a Syriac Maps rejig. Jonathan concludes by stating that he has no updates on the situation in Kherson, although there has been good news from this area in recent days. He ends the update.

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Wrap up

🎦 24:29-24:36⏩

Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and signs off.

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