Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"They're not going to march on Moscow. They're not going to march on Belgorod. But they are going to cause the Russians a bit of a headache"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:27⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for another frontline update, this time for 19th March 2024. He reminds viewers to check the key if they need a reminder about what the lines on the map mean. Jonathan also thanks JR for the map updates.

Return to top⤴️

📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Belgorod Oblast - Strikes and Free Russia Legion activity

🎦 00:27-02:52⏩

Jonathan kicks off with the situation in Belgorod Oblast, where there are reports of strikes and air raids, with air defences active within the city limits, meaning projectiles fired by Russian Air Defences can land in the city. It is unclear whether the strikes are a result of Ukrainian activity or from within Russia (e.g. from "Free Russia" groups operating within Russia). Jonathan questions the intentions of the "Free Russia" fighters operating in the region and the potential consequences of their actions. He notes reports that Ukrainian forces have been forced to pull back from the border due to retaliatory shelling by Russian forces. The Deputy Commander of the "Freedom of Russia" Legion (Caesar) states that Putin may be forced to transfer troops from the front lines to protect the borders should the "Free Russia" activity continue. He claims 1,500 Russian personnel have been killed, and elite Russian units are being deployed to the region. Jonathan cites a Telegram post quoting a source called PS01, reporting heavy fighting in the Kuzinka area of Belgorod and claims that a Ukrainian "Patriot Car" ambushed Russian soldiers in the region, resulting in the deaths of two Russian soldiers and the capture of a Russian Colonel's son (Lieutenant Nikita Besmertny). The post also notes the involvement of Russian Special Forces, with heavy losses reported.

Return to top⤴️

Analysis of Free Russia Legion activity

🎦 02:52-07:25⏩

Jonathan analyses the PS01 information and suspects that the incursions are more than just a raid. He questions the overall objectives, noting that the groups will not be able to take large amounts of territory or march on Moscow. He believes the intention must be to force the Russians to divert troops and resources away from the front lines. Jonathan questions whether such a tactic is worthwhile, given the potential human cost for the Ukrainians.

Return to top⤴️

Northeastern Front Update: Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna

🎦 07:26-08:34⏩

Moving on to the established front lines, Jonathan starts with the Northeast axis, noting minor Russian advances around Tabaivka, although he believes the latest update from Surat Maps is more likely a correction to align with other maps. He also notes that there is no change along the Terny-Torske-Bilohorivka-Siversk frontline.

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut Update

🎦 08:34-09:07⏩

Jonathan states there have been no changes in Bakhmut for over a week, which is good news for the Ukrainians, particularly that control of Ivaniske remains unchanged.

Return to top⤴️

Avdiivka Update

🎦 09:07-11:28⏩

In Avdiivka, Jonathan reports Ukrainian gains, pushing back Russian forces. He notes that these are significant as the Russians could use this area to outflank Ukrainian forces, cutting them off from the rest of the Donbas. He analyses the geographical challenges faced by Russian forces in this region, with rivers and marshlands that would likely require bridging equipment to cross.

Return to top⤴️

Donetsk Front Update: Orlivka and Tonenke

🎦 11:28-12:05⏩

Jonathan reports further South, Russian gains in Orlivka and Tonenke, with Surat Maps indicating that Orlivka is under the control of Russian Forces. Despite this, he observes that the intensity of the fighting in the Avdiivka area has reduced compared to the previous month.

Return to top⤴️

Donetsk Front Update: Krasnohorivka - Marinka - Pobieda

🎦 12:05-12:23⏩

Jonathan reports that there has been no change around Krasnohorivka, Marinka, Pobieda or Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast) - He considers this highly significant.

Return to top⤴️

Analysis of the Russian Offensive

🎦 12:23-13:16⏩

Jonathan believes the lack of movement across all fronts is evidence that the Russians may be culminating. He notes that hopes for a significant victory ahead of the recent elections in Russia had failed to materialise. He believes that whilst Russian forces are on the offensive, they have only made modest gains at an extremely high cost.

Return to top⤴️

Velyka Novosilka Update

🎦 13:16-14:07⏩

Moving South, Jonathan reports Ukrainian gains in the Velyka Novosilka area, although he notes that this has not been reported by other sources, suggesting it could be an error.

Return to top⤴️

Southern Front Update

🎦 14:07-14:53⏩

Jonathan observes that Deepstate Maps has realigned its lines around the Vuhledar area to be more consistent with other maps. The maps indicate that Russian forces control the "Surovikin" Line, although a small salient is still held by Ukrainian forces, who are making the Russians fight for every metre.

Return to top⤴️

Dnipro River Line and Kherson Update

🎦 14:53-16:06⏩

There are no changes along the Dnipro River line. Jonathan references a Times Radio interview with former US Marine Brandon Mitchell, a combat medic in Ukraine who gets his information from a former Battalion Commander and a "Scouser" drone operator. He discounts speculation about a Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson area, believing this would require significantly more equipment and troops.

Return to top⤴️

Analysis of a Potential Ukrainian River Crossing

🎦 16:06-17:10⏩

Jonathan analyses the requirements for a Ukrainian crossing of the Dnipro River, suggesting a minimum 25km stretch of the river would need to be controlled to protect bridging equipment, making it impossible to launch a surprise attack. He believes it is unlikely the Ukrainians currently possess the capabilities to achieve this.

Return to top⤴️

Brandon Mitchell: Kherson Frontline Update

🎦 17:10-19:31⏩

Jonathan plays a clip from the Times Radio interview with Brandon Mitchell, who reports that Dachi and the area opposite Antonovsky Bridge is held by Ukrainian forces. He notes rumours of fighting in Oleshky, which he hopes are true. Mitchell describes how Ukrainian forces had to pay a high price in casualties to take and hold the area and highlights the effectiveness of Russian artillery. He describes how the Ukrainians were able to inflict heavy casualties on the Russians during a snowstorm that grounded drones, suggesting that artillery spotters rely solely on drones.

Return to top⤴️

Analysis of Kherson Frontline Update

🎦 19:31-20:49⏩

Jonathan analyses the information provided by Brandon Mitchell. He is particularly interested in the reports of Ukrainian-held Dachi and possible fighting in Oleshky, speculating that Ukrainian special forces may be operating in the area. He reiterates the need to suppress Russian artillery, which would allow Ukrainian forces to operate much more effectively. He reiterates Mitchell's point about the high cost paid by Ukrainian troops to take and hold the areas around Kherson.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap Up

🎦 20:49-22:00⏩

Jonathan thanks JR for the map updates and reminds viewers to like and subscribe. He announces he has a couple of live streams scheduled - on Thursday, he will be speaking to a viewer about the possibility of removing Russia from the UN Security Council and on Friday, he will be talking to Anastasia Paraskova about the situation in Kharkiv.

Return to top⤴️