Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
“Things are really challenging for the Russians there and they've lost an awful lot of kit and equipment and personnel. And just be wary about selection bias for mainstream media narratives.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War Update for 20th January 2024, kicking off with Part 1.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses (19/01/2024)
🎦 00:08-01:19⏩
Jonathan details the daily figures for Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting a significant downtick in numbers likely due to weather. Key figures include 750 personnel, four tanks, 10 APVs, and 14 artillery systems. He compares these figures to the higher numbers seen in previous days, speculating on potential reasons for the decrease.
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Analysis of Ukrainian Losses & Impact of Lancet Drones
🎦 02:18-06:23⏩
Jonathan analyses Ukrainian equipment losses reported by Andrew Perpetua, highlighting a damaged Humvee, a destroyed SUV, and a potentially problematic damaged BUK air defence system. He connects the BUK damage to Russian Lancet drones, noting their recent resurgence in effectiveness and suggesting potential production issues as a reason for their previous absence. He also discusses the difficulty of controlling Lancets due to their design and observes their variable damage output.
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Insights from Times Radio Interview with George Barros (ISW)
🎦 01:37-02:18⏩
Jonathan recommends a Times Radio interview with George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), praising the outlet's coverage of the war. He highlights their efforts in keeping the conflict in the public consciousness and providing consistent, reliable information.
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Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) Sabotage Mission in Bryansk
🎦 07:25-08:00⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of a sabotage mission carried out by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) in Bryansk, where they destroyed a Russian military truck. He notes Russian news channels’ false claims of RDK casualties and contrasts this with the video evidence, highlighting a recurring theme of Russian disinformation.
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Heavy Losses & Defections: Russian 382nd Naval Infantry Battalion (Kreminna)
🎦 08:00-08:24⏩
Jonathan reports on significant losses suffered by the Russian 382nd Separate Naval Infantry Battalion, part of the 810th Brigade fighting in Kreminna. Citing reports, he states the battalion has lost over 90% of its equipment and 60% of its personnel due to Ukrainian artillery and FPV drone strikes. He connects these losses to an increase in defections, as remaining soldiers are forced into combat without adequate equipment.
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Contrasting Narratives and Selection Bias in Reporting on the Battle for Kreminna
🎦 08:24-11:43⏩
Jonathan delves into the conflicting narratives surrounding the situation in Kreminna. He dissects claims from various sources, including pro-Russian accounts suggesting Ukrainian retreat, Russian soldiers reporting difficult conditions, and footage of both Ukrainian and Russian losses. He emphasises the importance of considering source bias, particularly selection bias in Western media interviews that predominantly feature Ukrainian soldiers. Jonathan argues that focusing solely on Ukrainian perspectives presents an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of the conflict, urging viewers to be wary of skewed narratives.
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Fire at Market in Chelyabinsk, Russia
🎦 12:16-12:28⏩
Jonathan reports on a large fire in Chelyabinsk, Russia, which engulfed a market area, spanning over 1,000 square meters. He notes the evacuation efforts by local authorities and the lack of reported casualties.
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Fire at Electrical Substation in Belgorod, Russia (Footage Analysis)
🎦 12:28-12:53⏩
Jonathan revisits the fire at an electrical substation in Belgorod, Russia, initially mentioned in a previous update. He highlights newly released footage, describing it as “bright” and “not looking good." While Russian authorities attribute the fire to a short circuit, he suggests the possibility of a Ukrainian strike, though acknowledges the lack of conclusive evidence.
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Ukrainian Air Defence Downs Four Russian Drones (Odessa, Mykolaiv, Khmelnytskyi)
🎦 12:53-13:47⏩
Jonathan reports on the successful interception of four out of seven Russian drones by Ukrainian air defences. The drones were targeting various locations, including Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Khmelnytskyi. He questions the strategic rationale behind these limited drone attacks, speculating on potential motives and constraints, such as dwindling stockpiles or specific, localised objectives.
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Russian Glide Bombing Resumes in Kherson Oblast (FAB-500/UPMK)
🎦 13:47-14:28⏩
Jonathan reports the resumption of Russian glide bomb attacks in Kherson Oblast after a month-long hiatus following the previous destruction of Russian Su-34 aircraft. He specifies the use of FAB-500 glide bombs equipped with UPMK kits, enhancing their range and accuracy through GPS or GLONASS guidance. He connects this renewed bombing campaign to the urgent need for increased military support for Ukraine, both in terms of quantity and quality of equipment.
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Challenges Facing Ukraine: Ammunition Shortages and Russian Advances
🎦 14:28-15:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the critical issue of ammunition shortages faced by Ukrainian forces. He cites reports of artillery units being forced to withdraw and links the recent Russian advances to this shortage. He expresses frustration at the situation, drawing a direct correlation between delayed military aid decisions and Ukrainian losses on the ground.
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Ongoing Fire at Oil Depot in Bryansk (Analysis of Russian Disinformation)
🎦 15:11-16:18⏩
Jonathan revisits the fire at the oil depot in Bryansk, providing an update on the situation. He cites reports from Russian Telegram channels claiming the fire is still burning and has spread to four tanks, covering an area of at least 1,800 square meters. He contrasts this with the Russian MOD’s claim of shooting down a Ukrainian drone over the depot, dismissing their assertions of no casualties or damage. He criticizes the Russian government's continued denial and attempts to downplay the incident, highlighting the absurdity of their claims in light of the prolonged and extensive fire.
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Ukraine's "Steel Headquarters": Underground Bunkers for Frontline Troops
🎦 16:18-17:59⏩
Jonathan showcases innovative underground bunkers, dubbed "Steel Headquarters", being produced by the Ukrainian company, Metinvest, for use by Ukrainian troops. He describes these prefabricated structures, designed for assembly in dugout trenches, providing enhanced protection from shelling and a more secure environment for command staff and soldiers. He highlights the bunkers' features, including sleeping quarters, working areas, communication systems, lighting, and heating. Jonathan praises their practicality, noting their ease of assembly, disassembly, and transportation. He seems particularly impressed by the interior amenities of the bunkers.
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Key Takeaways from The Kyiv Independent Report: Military Fortifications, Drone Strikes, and Russian Drone Development
🎦 18:00-19:59⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from The Kyiv Independent, highlighting three key points:
- Ukrainian Government Invests in Fortifications: He draws attention to the Ukrainian government’s allocation of $466 million for military fortifications. He interprets this as a strategic decision indicative of the war’s trajectory, suggesting a shift towards more static warfare and defensive postures.
- Drone Strike Debris Ignited Bryansk Oil Depot Fire: Addressing the oil depot fire in Bryansk, he cites The Kyiv Independent’s confirmation that debris from a Ukrainian drone strike caused the blaze. He downplays the significance of whether the strike directly hit the depot or not, emphasizing the ultimate outcome – the destruction of the facility.
- Russia Develops Cheaper 'Hawk' Drone: He revisits the development of a cheaper version of the Shahed drone by Russia, known as the "Hawk" drone. He expresses concern over this development, framing it as a significant challenge for Ukraine.
Protests in Bashkortostan: Detentions Follow Demonstrations Against Jailing of Activist
🎦 20:03-22:13⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to internal dissent within Russia, reporting on protests in the Republic of Bashkortostan. He details the arrest and four-year prison sentence given to an activist who was protesting against a gold mine and had previously spoken out against the erosion of Bashkir culture and language. He links this to the subsequent demonstrations in support of the activist and broader expressions of Bashkir ethnic identity, which also resulted in arrests. Jonathan speculates on the potential impact of such protests spreading to other regions of Russia, fuelled by diverse grievances and a growing sense of discontent. He argues that a widespread internal collapse within Russia, driven by economic hardship, public dissatisfaction with the war, and rising casualties, could ultimately pave the way for Ukraine’s victory.
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Wrap up
🎦 22:13-22:21⏩
Jonathan concludes the first part of the update, acknowledging its shorter length and expressing hope that viewers appreciate it. He encourages likes, subscriptions, and sharing, expressing gratitude for the continued support.
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