Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"He goes right to the front line. He's been to Avdiivka. He's been to Bakhmut when that was under threat. And he is now in Robotina."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the 5th February 2024 Ukraine War Update, mentioning previous breaking news updates and outlining the topics for this episode, focusing on hits, losses, strikes, and frontline news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:28-02:13⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, noting 810 personnel, 5 tanks, 4 APVs, and 18 artillery systems lost. He observes that these numbers are lower than recent days, suggesting a possible shift in Russian tactics towards infantry-focused assaults, particularly in areas like Avdiivka.
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Andrew Perpetua's Database Insights & Avdiivka Losses
🎦 02:13-08:18⏩
Jonathan highlights the importance of Andrew Perpetua's database in tracking equipment losses, comparing it to the less accurate Russian equivalent, "Lost Armour". He shares Andrew's observation of the staggering equipment losses in Avdiivka, with over 608 Russian vehicles destroyed, demonstrating a significant loss ratio in favour of Ukraine. This, Jonathan notes, fuels the debate about the obsolescence of tanks in modern warfare, particularly with the increasing use of drones.
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FPV Drone Effectiveness and the HIMARS Strike
🎦 08:18-11:30⏩
-Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of FPV drones in destroying Russian vehicles, referencing a Ukrainian claim of 103 vehicles destroyed in a single day. -He revisits the HIMARS strike on the "scale quotes" bakery in occupied Luhansk, which turned out to be a meeting place for high-ranking Russian officials. While some civilian casualties were reported, Jonathan suggests the strike was strategically justified given the importance of the targets. He points out the Ukrainian's careful use of resources like HIMARS, implying they would not waste them on a random cafe.
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Miscellaneous News: Missing Helicopter, Kinzhal Missile Issues, Zelensky's Frontline Visit
🎦 11:30-15:11⏩
Jonathan covers several news items: -Russian search efforts for a missing MI-8 helicopter have been called off. -The effectiveness of Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic missiles is questioned, with reports of them missing targets more frequently and the arrest of 12 missile scientists. -Zelensky's visit to Robotina in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, close to the front line, is highlighted as a display of courage and a stark contrast to Putin's leadership style.
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Zelensky's Leadership Reshuffle and Zaluzhny's Farewell
🎦 15:11-16:34⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's confirmation of a potential reshuffling of Ukrainian military leadership, including the replacement of General Zaluzhny. While the US has stated it won't interfere in these decisions, Jonathan acknowledges the risks and potential necessity of such a move. He notes Zaluzhny's farewell messages on Facebook, suggesting a leadership transition is underway.
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Wrap up
🎦 16:34-16:40⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, encourages likes, subscriptions, and sharing, and signs off.
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