Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Even after years of war, when it seems Russian cynicism can't get worse, we see something even darker." - President Zelensky
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
John provides a welcome to the video. Today's video is a Ukraine War News Update and is part 1 for the 17th December 2023. He starts with the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses. There has been a large increase in personnel losses with 1,600 reported. Four tanks were lost (down on previous days), along with 15 armoured personnel carriers and eight artillery systems. There was an uptick in personnel losses, as well as vehicles and fuel tanks (70).
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Andrew Perpetua's Loss List Backlog
🎦 01:13-02:38⏩
Andrew Perpetua (source) has reported that he has been unable to update his losses list for a number of days due to the sheer volume of video footage emerging that shows a large amount of destruction. Andrew is trying to catch up on the backlog. He aims to finish Monday 70% and do error correction for a third of Sunday. He notes that there are a "hilarious number of Russians dying" and that there are a "comical number every single day".
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Putin Admits 1,000 New Recruits a Day
🎦 02:36-04:53⏩
Putin has claimed that over 1,000 people are enlisting for military service under contract every day. Jonathan states that if these figures are true, it would mean 30,000 a month. He questions whether Putin is inflating this number and states that in order to do this, Putin must think that people need to hear that number. Jonathan concludes that huge numbers of Russians must be dying in order for there to be a recruitment of 1,000 personnel per day.
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North Korean Soldiers Are Legitimate Targets
🎦 04:53-06:23⏩
U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has stated that North Korean soldiers are a legitimate target for the Ukrainian military. He warned that if North Korean troops cross the border into Ukraine to fight for Russia, that would mark a serious escalation in the war. Jonathan states his approval of this rhetoric.
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Differing Claims of North Korean Casualties in Kursk Oblast
🎦 06:23-08:22⏩
Footage has emerged showing a large number of dead bodies in a field. It is claimed that these are North Korean soldiers who were hit by cluster munitions. There are differing claims about the number of North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine claims that 200 North Koreans were killed in the past couple of days, while Russia claims 187. The U.S. says at least 30 have been killed. The Kyiv Independent reports that Ukraine's special operations forces killed 50 North Korean soldiers and injured 47 others in three days of fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast.
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Russia Burning Faces of Dead North Korean Soldiers
🎦 08:22-09:51⏩
There is video evidence of a North Korean soldier in a Russian uniform. It has been reported that Russia is burning the faces of dead North Korean soldiers to hide the losses in Kursk. Zelensky has claimed that Russian forces are trying to literally burn the faces of the dead North Korean soldiers to conceal their losses. Jonathan states that this is "incredible" as Russia does not want the outside world to know that North Koreans are fighting for the Russian forces. They claim they are Buryatian, give them Russian uniforms and fake IDs.
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FPV Drone Effectiveness 20-40%
🎦 09:51-10:36⏩
The effectiveness of FPV drones on the front now ranges from 20% to 40% for both the Russians and the Ukrainians. Magyar (from Magyar's Birds, a crack drone group - source) has said that the electronics may not work, the drones may not detonate on the way, or they may not detonate at their targets. The enemy suppresses a significant part of the electronic warfare, and some are shot down with small arms. Jonathan notes that the 40% figure is an improvement from 17% previously.
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Task and Purpose Video
🎦 10:37-11:43⏩
Jonathan mentions a "fascinating" video from Task and Purpose (source) where the presenter was up in Kursk Oblast with the fighters there in a Bradley and a Stryker. He also visited an Abrams repair area. In the video, a Bradley is shown littered with FPV drone hits, where the tiles on the Bradley version, the explosive reactive armour, have done a marvellous job of keeping those FPV drones at bay. FPV drones are the bane of everyone, especially since a lot of the ones the Russians use have fibre optic cables, so they can't be jammed.
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Assassination of Russian Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in Moscow
🎦 11:43-13:20⏩
Russian Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the military's nuclear, chemical, and biological defense forces, was killed by a bomb placed on a scooter in Moscow. He is the most prominent military officer to be assassinated in the war. The day before, Ukraine's SBU security service put out a notice of suspicion/warrant for Kirillov over the mass use of banned chemical weapons by the Russians against the defense forces on the eastern and southern fronts of Ukraine. Jonathan surmises that this was a precursor to his assassination. Kirillov is reported to be one of the most senior Russian officers killed in the war. His assistant, Ilya Polykarpov, was also killed in the explosion, which was reportedly filled with shrapnel.
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Air Defence Active in Kyiv
🎦 13:20-13:48⏩
Air defence forces shot down 20 of 31 drones sent into Ukraine. Another 10 were taken out by electronic warfare, and one was still in the air. Potentially, all 31 drones were taken out, but they did cause damage with falling debris. Air defence is active in Kyiv and the region. Shahed drones have been out and about and have been taken out as well.
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Electronic Warfare and Precision Guidance
🎦 13:49-14:54⏩
Jonathan saw footage of a Shahed drone that was taken out with electronic warfare. He notes that electronic warfare is playing a really important part. In the Task and Purpose video, there is talk about electronic warfare on things like Bradleys. The presenter said that you've got to watch out because if you start trying to block certain frequencies, you can block your own communications and your own precision guidance for your own weapons that are being shot as well, such as an Excalibur shell.
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US View on North Korean Troops Entering Ukraine
🎦 14:54-15:24⏩
The US has said that if North Korean troops enter Ukraine, that will be an escalation by both Russia and North Korea. Jonathan reiterates his approval of this type of rhetoric from the US.
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Russia Will Not Accept Any Freeze on the War in Ukraine
🎦 15:24-16:21⏩
The Russian permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, has stated that Russia will not accept any freeze on the war in Ukraine. Jonathan notes that this individual was let off sanctions by Hungary. Jonathan states that Russia is not interested in peace, despite what Trump says. Putin still has maximalist intentions for Ukraine.
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Russian Equity Market Sell-Offs
🎦 16:21-16:55⏩
Jane Keefe (source) says the pain in the Russian equity market never ends. There have been over six months of relentless sell-offs, and many of Russia's biggest companies have lost more than 60% of their market cap valuations. An infographic shows most of these entities making losses over the last six months or going down in value.
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Russian Corporate Bond Yields Explained
🎦 16:55-19:09⏩
The Russian Corporate Bond Yields Index is now showing a one-to-one inverse correlation with Putin's chances of not being eaten by hordes of starving Russians. Jonathan attempts to explain what bonds are, referencing a Guardian article from a year ago. A bond is a form of loan that investors make to a borrower or bond issuer. Governments, companies, and other organisations issue them to raise money. Bond yields represent the amount of money an investor receives for owning the debt as a percentage of its current price. For example, if you had a $100 bond and received $10 that year, it has a yearly bond of 10%. However, the price of the bond can fluctuate. If the price of a bond falls, yields rise.
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Rising Bond Yields as an Indicator of Economic Status
🎦 19:09-21:26⏩
Jonathan continues to explain bond yields. Rising bond yields suggest a dwindling appetite to own the debt among investors, which can be influenced by a range of factors, including an issuer's ability to pay. For governments, this centres on the prospects for the economy. If an economy is looking very bad, it might not look like the government can raise enough money to pay back those bonds. So, the bond prices will come down as a result of that, and yields go up. It's a reflection of economic status. Inflation expectations also have a significant impact, as inflation undercuts the future value of money received for owning the debt. This means investors could demand a higher yield to compensate for the risk. If inflation goes up, then you want a higher yield to compensate for that higher inflation. Russia has both high interest rates and high inflation.
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Russian Developer PIK's Bond Yield at 24.5%
🎦 21:26-22:38⏩
Yesterday, the EU imposed sanctions against the second-largest Russian developer, PIK. The company's shares are trading at a five-year low. The bond yield is 24.5% in dollars. These are harbingers of PIK's default. It's not looking good for this particular developer, for developers in general, or for the Russian economy. Bonds are in a sticky situation, reflective of a terrible economy.
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Moscow Stock Exchange at Lowest Since March 2023
🎦 22:38-23:05⏩
The Moscow Stock Exchange dived to 2420, its lowest since March 2023, having lost 30% of its value in seven months. The Russian central bank delayed liquidity tests on banks amid rumours that the massive VTB bank could be on the verge of collapse. Jonathan believes this is the third biggest bank in Russia.
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Russian Coal Industry in Crisis
🎦 23:05-24:32⏩
The Russian coal industry is in crisis. Due to the loss of Western markets and the sharp decline of demand in friendly countries, Russian coal companies have closed nine months of 2024 with a loss of 91 billion rubles (about $875 million). This is a record among all Russian economic areas. Half of the enterprises in the industry, which includes more than 30 single-industry towns and hundreds of thousands of employees, have become unprofitable. About 150,000 people work in the Russian coal industry directly, and over 500,000 more work in neighbouring areas. In 2020, 30 "monocities" (where there is usually just one major employer) had about 1.5 million Russians living in them who directly depend on the coal industry for survival. Jonathan explains these monocities, where a town develops around a coal mine and the entire town is dependent on the coal industry being profitable. If it isn't profitable, it arguably kills the town.
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Decline in Russian Coal Exports
🎦 24:33-25:33⏩
Coal exports from Russia declined 11.4%. Exports to China have declined by 8%, and there is no potential for growth. Russian officials admitted as Beijing has introduced import duties on Russian coal. Putin demanded that urgent measures be taken to support Russian coal companies as they face bankruptcies. He also demanded the reviving of Kuzbass, the main coal region of Russia that accounts for 60% of hard coal production and 80% of coking coal. Earlier this year, employees of the Iskaya Coal Mine in Kuzbass announced a strike because they were not paid any salary for four months. Local Telegram channels often discuss that Russian coal miners will be sent to war, and not paying wages is one of the steps to force them to sign up as volunteers, continuing shadow mobilization in Russia.
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Two Russian Tankers Broke Apart Due to Safety Violations
🎦 25:33-28:56⏩
The two Russian tankers that broke apart yesterday in the Kerch Strait reportedly split along welds created when the ships were modified in a botched attempt to meet safety regulations. Numerous safety rules were being violated when the ships sank. Both ships were old and didn't meet maritime safety standards. The ships were shortened by cutting out their central section and welding the stern and bow together in what seems to have been a botched attempt to meet international maritime organisation standards. Both vessels split along the weld. The vessels were Soviet Project 1577 oil tankers designed for use on rivers and in calm coastal waters. They were being used to transport fuel oil and heavy fuel from Saratov on the Volga River and across the Sea of Azov to Port Kavkaz on the Kerch Strait. The ships had been queuing to unload at Port Kavkaz but were delayed due to damage caused to the port infrastructure by earlier Ukrainian attacks. Neither ship was meant to be in the sea in stormy conditions. They were both classed as river vessels and were subject to Soviet and Russian rules about the type of sea conditions in which they were allowed to operate, which prohibited their presence in very rough seas. At the time of the sinkings, the waves were 3.4 metres high, and wind speeds reached 24 metres a second. Neither vessel was designed to cope with such conditions. It's possible that their captains chose to keep their places in the port queue rather than seeking safety in the harbour. The vessels were guilty of other safety violations, as is common with Russia's Shadow Fleet. Neither vessel had an automatic identification system switched on. The crews were also equipped only with life jackets rather than immersion suits, another regulatory violation. The Russian authorities have now opened a criminal investigation against a company operating the vessels on suspicion of violating safety rules.
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Environmental Catastrophe from Oil Spills
🎦 28:56-29:28⏩
The sinking of the tankers has caused an environmental catastrophe. Anapa, a coastal town, may have to forget about being called a resort city for a long time. The storm is bringing more and more petroleum products to Anapa's beaches from tankers that sank in the Kerch Strait. The oil slick has already contaminated up to 35 kilometers of coastline and is moving toward Anapa's central beach.
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Baltic Sea Countries to Request Insurance for Russian Tankers
🎦 29:28-32:06⏩
European countries with access to the Baltic Sea will start requesting insurance coverage for Russian tankers carrying oil. The Financial Times and Bloomberg reported. According to the publications, the lack of insurance or refusal to provide it will be considered as a reason to add the vessels to the sanctions list. The example of tankers already there shows that such sanctions make it difficult for Russia to use its shadow fleet for oil exports. Twelve European countries with access to the Baltic Sea intend to start requesting insurance when passing Russian tankers, Bloomberg reported, according to the agency. They include Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the UK. Maritime authorities were requesting insurance documentation from ships passing through the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the straits between Sweden and Denmark. The scheme was agreed upon at the meeting of the Joint Expeditionary Force of the Nordic Countries in Tallinn on Monday. The Treaty on Freedom of Navigation does not allow obstructing the passage of ships that refuse to comply with the requirements of European maritime authorities, Bloomberg noted. However, all such cases will be recorded. If a vessel is found to have lacked sufficient insurance coverage, it will be added to the sanctions list. Similar measures will be taken against tankers whose crew ignore insurance requirements. Estonia has already started requesting insurance but for July and August received responses from only about 40% of transit ships. UK authorities have also started similar checks, saying in late November they had checked the insurance of 43 ships and put one tanker whose crew refused to provide details of insurance coverage on the sanctions list. On Monday, the EU added another 52 ships, believed to be part of Russia's Shadow Fleet, to the list of vessels banned from entering EU ports and barred from accessing services provided by EU companies. The G7 sanctions prohibit Western insurers from offering insurance coverage to vessels that violate Russia's $60 a barrel oil price ceiling. Russian authorities have found a way around this restriction by using a Shadow Fleet of tankers, and these vessels often use unreliable insurers or transport oil without. Tankers on the EU and UK sanctions list make it difficult to use them in the oil trade. In the spring, India stopped accepting oil delivered on sanctioned tankers. Baltic states are concerned about possible environmental problems if oil spills from the old tankers. Two old Russian ships carrying oil crashed in the Kerch Strait on Sunday, threatening one of the biggest environmental disasters for the Black Sea.
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Heartwarming Story: Wedding of Two Ukrainian Amputees
🎦 32:06-33:19⏩
Anastasia, a sniper, joined the military months before turning 24. During a mission, she sustained injuries leading to a shin amputation. During rehabilitation, she met Oleksi, a serviceman who had lost his leg in combat and was adapting to his prosthetics. Jonathan shares footage of the wedding of the two amputees. He notes that it is good to see some happiness in times of challenge.
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Heartwarming Story: 101-Year-Old WWII Veteran Visits Wounded Ukrainian Defenders
🎦 33:19-34:31⏩
Ola Tverdokhlebova, a World War II veteran, celebrated her 101st birthday at the hospital where she visited wounded Ukrainian defenders. Mrs. Ola took part in World War II as a volunteer. She served in reconnaissance, was injured twice, and had a concussion. When the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started, the first thing she did was call the military enlistment office to join as a volunteer again at the age of 99. Jonathan shares footage of her visit, commenting that she is "more mobile than I am" and has a "tea to you my dear, what a legend".
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Wrap up
🎦 34:31-35:53⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for smashing the target for the Car4Ukraine fundraiser. They have now raised €21,655, surpassing their goal for the second truck. They are considering taking on one of Starsky's trucks, who is part of the campaign but is currently unavailable. Jonathan asks viewers to let him know their thoughts in the poll he put out today. He signs off, reminding viewers to like, subscribe, and share.
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