Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231014a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"The Ukrainians are doing an absolutely incredible job, as well as putting it to the Russians on the front line as well although we know that's pretty grinding."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war recorded the night before as he will be away for the weekend. Some of the claims will have developed since then. The general staff figures for Russian losses will be pinned in the video comments if possible.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Special forces hit train and railway in Melitopol area
- Ukrainian special forces blew up an enemy train carrying ammunition and fuel from Crimea in occupied Melitopol. The explosion damaged 150m of railway and a diesel locomotive.
- Having special forces operating this far behind enemy lines is significant. It will have a psychological effect and damage Russian logistics.
Octocopter drone strike
Footage shows an octocopter drone with multiple sizable munitions striking an APC with troops on top, dropping munitions amongst the troops after they disembark, and hitting another vehicle. This demonstrates the evolving drone capabilities to carry out significant strikes with a single drone. The explosions look fairly powerful, possibly thermobaric or incendiary.
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Russian body bag shortage
A Russian volunteer posted requesting urgent help purchasing body bags and providing clothes and food for the many injured soldiers in Donetsk hospitals. This indicates there are many Russian casualties and deaths leading to hospitals struggling with injured soldiers and a shortage of body bags and supplies.
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Bridge strike north of Avdiivka
- More details have emerged on the strike on a bridge over a railway north of Avdiivka on the way to Horlivka. This is an important Russian logistics route.
- The bridge is completely destroyed and will take a long time to repair. The railway is also damaged.
- Russian equipment including tanks, APCs and an anti-tank gun were destroyed on the bridge, possibly timed to strike a Russian military column.
- The attack likely aimed to complicate Russian logistics and offensive actions in that part of the front.
Russian losses
- Another Russian Su-25 jet was shot down, the second in a week. Russian aircraft are being attrited along with some crew members.
- Lack of maintenance and high flight hours will also cause losses. This may affect Russia's ability to conduct aviation operations.
Fighting around Avdiivka
More geolocated footage has emerged showing Ukrainian forces repelling Russian assaults to the north and south of Avdiivka, continuing to attrit Russian forces in the area.
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Fire in Ilovaisk
A massive fire, possibly a gas fire, is burning in Russian-occupied Ilovaisk. The town is a rail hub behind Donetsk and was the site of a massacre of Ukrainian forces in 2014. The day it returns to Ukrainian control will be psychologically significant.
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Strikes on Russian ships
- According to Ukrainian intelligence sources quoted by RBC, the two Russian ships damaged this week in the Black Sea were hit by "experimental" Ukrainian "Sea Baby" naval drones.
- One cruise missile carrier and a minesweeper were struck. A submarine escaped.
- After the first detonation, Russian minesweepers and divers could not find the Ukrainian "know-how".
- This is a huge success for Ukraine. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has largely withdrawn from Sevastopol.
Other news
- A fire was reported in the Russian city of Bryansk after a drone strike, but the photo may be recycled from the previous day so it's unclear if this is a new strike.
- Russia wants women to start having 3-4+ children from age 19-20 to provide more "cannon fodder", revealing its population issues exacerbated by mobilization and war deaths.
- Prominent Russians continue to die in suspicious circumstances, including a life coach who allegedly died from an epileptic seizure after falling from his 8th floor Moscow apartment.
- Russia has arrested a human rights lawyer in occupied Crimea who was representing Ukrainian POWs and charged him for Facebook posts featuring Ukrainian symbols and anti-war statements.
Wrap up
Jonathan expresses having no patience for Russian trolls justifying the country's actions under Putin who has shut down freedoms and liberties, manipulated elections, and jailed or killed opposition figures and journalists. He will provide further updates on military aid and geopolitics in upcoming videos. Stay tuned for more.
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