Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia just isn't good at war, they are so ridiculously bad at it they need a new hobby. Imagine spending actual in real life money buying this trash heap Russian weaponry because there are people who did that. They actually went out and bought weapons from Russia on purpose. Imagine being that guy.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:32⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War Update News video, the first part of several for the 31st December 2024. Jonathan explains that he is short of time and will be "out for the day", therefore, there may be a delay before the next update, if at all that day.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:32-01:46⏩
Jonathan starts by providing the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for the Russian losses for the previous day (30th December 2024), reminding viewers that they can find them in the video description, and should be treated with caution:
- 1610 personnel (an incredibly high number - a new seven day rolling average)
- 5 Tanks (just below average)
- 27 AFVs (above average)
- 34 Artillery Systems (above average)
- 75 Vehicles and Fuel Tanks (a high number)
- 1 piece of special equipment.
Jonathan mentions that the data he usually shares from "Dell" (a member of his community) was not missing on the 25th as he had previously stated but there had been an issue with OneDrive. He confirms that the statistics had now been updated and were available to view.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Personnel Losses: Major General Konstantin Shmeshko Killed
🎦 01:46-02:06⏩
Jonathan reports the death of Major General Konstantin Shmeshko, Deputy Commander of the Engineering Troops of the Russian Armed forces who was killed on the 26th December 2024. No further details about the location or circumstances of his death are provided.
Return to top⤴️
810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Marines) Obliterated in Kursk
🎦 02:06-04:13⏩
Jonathan reports rumours circulating online that the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade have been rotated out of Kursk. He confirms reports from the previous day from a Russian Mill Blogger that the Brigade had been rotated out of Kursk. Jonathan states that whilst some are reporting this as a positive (that they had been rotated out), this is not the case, they have in fact been obliterated. He cites several sources (Andy Schnider and Forbes) confirming that the Brigade has been wiped out in the Kursk region. Jonathan explains that although the Russians claimed that the Brigade were being rehabilitated in Prokofo, this simply meant that they had been moved from one side of the sector (after being obliterated) to the other (just behind the contact line).
Return to top⤴️
Explosions in Lugov, Kursk
🎦 04:13-06:54⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been further explosions in Lugov in the Kursk region, stating that this is the second time the area has been hit recently. Jonathan explains that the first attack on Lugov targeted a building with officers inside, killing 7, including a deputy commander. Jonathan displays a map of the area, explaining that Lugov is in range of HIMARS. He then plays a video clip from a Russian source on Telegram of a building on fire, (with the caption "A lot of people in the bunker") showing a large fire with a Russian voiceover stating "Looking at this burning building you can't see anything but it's terrible. The fire started, the guys are all in the bunker, a lot of people". Jonathan then shares a post on X from Tim White confirming that the Russian city of Lugov was heavily shelled, and that a large fire had broken out in the town, although the location is blurred in the video due to Russian censorship laws. He adds that Kursk's acting governor Alexander Kinstein had said that there were no reports of damage or casualties. Jonathan points out that despite the governor's claims, it was clear a huge fire had broken out.
Return to top⤴️
Two Electric Trains Set on Fire in Moscow Region
🎦 06:54-07:52⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers about the two electric trains (that he had reported on the previous day) that were taken out in Moscow. He shares information about a locomotive that was set on fire in Dmitrov, Moscow region, stating that this may or may not be one of the two he reported on previously. He displays some images, concluding that he thinks that this is the case. Jonathan confirms that two electric trains in the Moscow suburbs of Lobnya and Dmitrov were set on fire (the work of arsonists) just hours apart. The driver's cabin of the train in Dmitrov was completely destroyed.
Return to top⤴️
Another Gas Station Explodes in Grozny
🎦 07:52-08:23⏩
Jonathan reports another fire at a gas (petrol) station in Grozny, reminding viewers of the footage he had previously shown of a petrol station exploding in Chechnya. He shares a post on X from Tim White expressing surprise at the blazes in Chechnya, particularly as there had been no explanation from the authorities as to the cause. White points out that despite a passenger jet being shot down 5 days previously, no explanation for the gas station explosion had been given. Although residents were evacuated, no explosions were heard.
Return to top⤴️
UTAIR AN-24 Aircraft Suffers Engine Failure
🎦 08:23-08:50⏩
Jonathan describes a "near catastrophe" in the Russian aviation industry, sharing a video clip posted by Tim White of a UTAIR AN-24 aircraft that suffered engine failure during landing in the Emael Nets region. Although the pilot was able to land safely and there were no injuries, Jonathan notes that the aircraft is in a "bunch of trouble".
Return to top⤴️
Distance Strikes: Overnight Strikes
🎦 08:50-09:46⏩
Jonathan reports that there is limited information available about strikes on Ukraine, although Kinzhal ballistic missiles were fired on Kyiv. He believes that they were shot down, adding that there were also drone attacks, but the numbers are unclear. Jonathan states that most of the news relates to Ukrainian strikes on Russia overnight, adding that this is what he had been predicting for some time, particularly given the increase in Ukrainian drone and missile manufacture. Jonathan predicts that there will be more detailed information released throughout the day.
Return to top⤴️
Distance Strikes: Sevastopol Attacked by Maritime Drones
🎦 09:46-11:04⏩
Jonathan reports that at around midnight Crimean time, Crimea was attacked, (including Sevastopol), in a number of ways. He states that Ukrainian maritime drones attacked the warm water naval base at Sevastopol, and that explosions were reported in a number of locations, sharing several posts on X from that time showing that there was naval drone activity on the western coast of Crimea. Jonathan speculates that there appear to have been at least two attack methods used, reporting that a Russian installed governor of Sevastopol claimed that two aircraft-type drones had been intercepted and destroyed over the Black Sea by air defence systems, although this was disputed by other sources. Jonathan then reports further explosions near Kazachia Bay in Sevastopol and explosions in Bryansk, Sevastopol, Orel and Smolensk.
Return to top⤴️
Distance Strikes: Russian TOR Air Defence System Destroyed
🎦 11:04-12:11⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian TOR air defence missile system was destroyed in the area of Kazachia Bay (Sevastopol) by a Ukrainian drone, sharing footage of a large explosion caught on camera. He goes on to describe how a Ukrainian Magura V5 unmanned surface vehicle (USV) shot down a Russian helicopter with a manpad and damaged another. Jonathan shares Andrew Perpetua's reaction to the news on X, quoting him as saying "Russia just isn’t good at war, They are so ridiculously bad at it they need a new hobby. Imagine spending actual in real life money buying this trash heap Russian weaponry because there are people who did that. They actually went out and bought weapons from Russia on purpose. Imagine being that guy.”
Return to top⤴️
Distance Strikes: World First as Magura V5 Shoots Down Helicopter
🎦 12:11-13:56⏩
Jonathan explains that as this is a world first, there has been a lot of discussion about the use of the Magura V5 (USV) that brought down the helicopter. He confirms that this was a world first and that Ukraine’s GUR had destroyed an airborne target (confirmed by NOL reports), adding that an Mi-8 helicopter had been shot down with an IGR-73 short range air missile and another helicopter hit. Jonathan speculates that the USVs, which are equipped with manpads could be driven around waiting for aircraft to pass by, before sharing a post on X from Dmitry celebrating the event. He describes it as a significant development in the war, as it will force the Russians to change their behaviour and fly further away from the drones, ultimately making them less effective. Jonathan concludes that this will result in the Russians having even less reason to remain in Crimea.
Return to top⤴️
Distance Strikes: Novorossiysk, Bryansk and Orel regions Targeted
🎦 13:56-15:09⏩
Jonathan shares information from Russian sources on Max24 that Novorossiysk (the new Russian Naval base on the Black Sea coast) is under attack. He reports that there are dangers from drones in the Bryansk region and that there have been explosions in the Orel and Bryansk regions. The drone attack on the Orel region was significant, with a big hit caught on CCTV, although the target is unknown. Jonathan reports that according to breaking news, Ukrainian drones struck the Drozhba oil pipeline. He explains that although this pipeline had been struck the night before, this time it is thought that pipes may have been damaged, rather than just buildings, although it would be preferable to damage everything.
Return to top⤴️
Distance Strikes: Oil Depot in Smolensk Hit
🎦 15:09-16:21⏩
Jonathan reports that an oil depot in the Yaltsevo district in the Smolensk region was on fire following a Ukrainian attack, although the governor of Smolensk claimed that the fire had been caused by falling debris from a drone that had been shot down. Jonathan adds sarcastically “nothing like claiming the drones were shot down, but they just so happened to fall down on the very target they were aiming for”. Jonathan then shares several posts from Tim White on X showing images and videos of the oil depot on fire, adding that it is approximately 350km from the Ukrainian border.
Return to top⤴️
Distance Strikes: Summary
🎦 16:21-17:18⏩
Jonathan provides a brief summary of the overnight strikes, stating that he believes this is just a snapshot of what happened. He believes that whilst more information will come out about the Russian strikes on Ukraine, the most significant development is the Ukrainian activity inside of Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Ukraine to Attack Kursk/Belgorod?
🎦 17:18-18:16⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian sources are claiming that Ukraine is planning to attack Russia at the junction of Kursk and Belgorod in the next 7 days with 20,000 soldiers, something which the Russians have been warning about for some time. He displays a map and explains that the Russians are claiming that the Ukrainians will attack somewhere between the Kursk and Kharkiv sectors.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Loans Forgiven for 400,000 Soldiers/Squid Game
🎦 18:16-19:45⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is planning to forgive the loans of 400,000 soldiers in an attempt to boost morale in the face of soaring losses. He cites UK intelligence reports that the Russians are facing average daily losses of 1,532. Jonathan then shares a post on Bluesky from Tim White that “Putin is paying Russia's debts to invade Ukraine. It's a kind of real life squid game". He explains that in the TV show "Squid Game", people in debt compete in a battle royale with the winner receiving money to pay off their debts. Jonathan explains that the law passed in Russia in late November 2024 will allow those soldiers who signed up after 1st December 2024 to have their loan debt (up to 10 million rubles, approximately £80,000) written off, a scheme which also applies to spouses. The scheme is in addition to the loan repayment holidays already available to servicemen. According to the independent Russian media organisation Mediazona, 411,000 repayment holidays had been taken up since October 2022. Jonathan believes that this will come at a huge cost to the Russian economy.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: 189 Ukrainian POWs Released
🎦 19:45-20:27⏩
Jonathan expresses his delight at the news that 189 Ukrainian POWs were returned home yesterday (30th December 2024) in time for the New Year. He describes some of the scenes from videos of the releases, explaining that some of the men had been held captive for over 2 and a half years and had suffered chronic illnesses, mine injuries and severe wounds. He describes how moving it was to see the men reunited with their families and loved ones.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Pensioner Sends $1.6 Million to Fraudsters
🎦 20:27-22:05⏩
Jonathan shares some information from War Translated that according to the Russian police, a pensioner was scammed out of 180 million rubles (1.6 million USD) by fraudsters, adding that it is thought that the Russian economy is losing 1 trillion rubles per year to fraud. He expresses some uncertainty as to his feelings about this news and asks viewers for their opinions, adding that it is an example of consequentialist moral ethics. He goes on to share further information from War Translated that it is alleged that the stolen funds were used to buy drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, speculating that this could mean that Ukrainians are systematically defrauding Russians to fund their war effort. Jonathan questions the morality of this, adding that although it could be argued that it is evil for a greater good, is it right to punish Russian society for the ills of their government.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Exports Surge
🎦 22:05-23:25⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine’s exports have surged to $41 billion in 2024, representing a 13% increase on the previous year. This is due to the revival of sea port operations through the Black Sea (maritime freight volumes have risen to 87 million tonnes). Jonathan is keen to highlight the role of the British in this success (along with Norway), who spearheaded the maritime coalition and assisted with insurance through Lloyd's of London and other London-based insurers to enable Ukraine to export via the Black Sea and the Phosphorus Straits. He describes this as a "lifeline" for the Ukrainian economy, and the reason that Russia has spent so much time targeting Odessa and the Danube ports of Ishmael and Reni.
Return to top⤴️
Baltic Cable Saga: 100km Drag Marks Suggest Deliberate Sabotage
🎦 23:25-24:42⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Baltic Cable Saga, stating that the discovery of 100km drag marks on the seabed all but confirms that the cables were subject to deliberate sabotage. He quotes an Estonian official who said that it would be impossible to drag an anchor for 100km without noticing as it would force the boat off course. Jonathan believes that if the anchor can be recovered and linked to the Russian ship Eagle S, this would provide irrefutable evidence that this was a deliberate act by the Russians.
Return to top⤴️
Baltic Cable Sabotage: An Act of War?
🎦 24:42-25:14⏩
Jonathan poses the question as to what should happen next given that it appears that it was the Russians who sabotaged the Baltic cables, asking "What do you do with that information? What does Finland do with that? Do they go to war with Russia?”. He ponders whether this could be considered an act of war, arguing that the cutting of communication cables could result in loss of life, similar to cyber attacks on hospitals which could have the same impact as conventional bombing. Jonathan believes that it is important that the matter is discussed formally and that Article 4 of the NATO treaty is triggered to act as a deterrent to Russia and raise the DEFCON level.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 25:14-25:44⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and reminds them to like, subscribe and share. He explains that he won't be able to provide any further updates that day as he will be out of the office, but encourages them to check Twitter, Bluesky and his lists for the latest information.
Return to top⤴️
