Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"It's more important they take Barova and try and get to the Oskil River...interesting dilemma for them"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:11⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to another frontline update video. He explains that this update was completed by JR as Jonathan was travelling back from a school reunion in London.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

London Calling and Disinformation

🎦 00:11-02:30⏩

Jonathan explains that he had been at a school reunion in London and found everyone to be lovely. He reminisces that he went to boarding school in the UK as his father was in the Navy so they moved around a lot. He goes on to explain that he met someone at the reunion who works as a social impact consultant and who has agreed to appear in an interview on the channel. Jonathan explains how this person's work looks at the impact of disinformation, particularly in the charity sector and how to combat the spread of mistruths.

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Map pre-amble and Kharkiv Oblast Updates

🎦 02:30-03:55⏩

Jonathan reminds viewers to watch the video explaining the map if they are unsure. He thanks JR for doing the mapping and begins by looking at the Kharkiv Oblast. He points out that the Ukrainians appear to be successfully clearing out the Russians in Hlyubik, although there appears to be a delay in the news coming through. Moving further north, Deep State Maps is suggesting that Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian forces who had crossed the border in Solnitsky Kozachok.

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Kharkiv Oblast Updates - Volkansk and Russian Raids

🎦 03:55-05:43⏩

Jonathan references Surat Maps, which shows Ukrainian forces re-entering positions south of Hryanyk Street in Volkansk with fighting continuing in the city. He goes on to explain the different interpretations of the maps (and the situation) by Surat Maps and Andrew Perpetua. Surat Maps suggests that the Russians control a thin strip of land connecting the Russian border with the area around Dvorichna and Tavrizhське (Tavriz'ke) where they have a presence. Jonathan goes on to explain how Andrew Perpetua (and Ukraine Related) believe that this is misleading as the Russians do not control this area but that it is in fact a grey zone where the Russians conduct raids and that although they are able to cross into this area, they are then cut off. Jonathan highlights how Surat Maps will show Russian control if they see evidence of Russian vehicles or soldiers in an area, but cautions that this does not mean that the Russians control it.

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Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Update

🎦 05:43-06:15⏩

Jonathan moves on to the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline and reports that there is no change from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna based on JR's mapping from the previous day.

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Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Update - Terny and Torska

🎦 06:15-09:38⏩

Jonathan moves on to the area around Terny and Torska and highlights how there are differences in the various maps in this area. He explains how Andrew Perpetua's map shows that the Ukrainians have pushed the Russian forces further back than either Deep State Maps or Surat Maps are suggesting. He explains that the maps showed Russian control to a certain point but that they have been pushed back twice from this location already, and possibly a third time, based on Andrew Perpetua's information. Jonathan analyses the situation and suggests that this could be due to the Russians pulling troops away from this area and sending them south to the area around Novoselivske, which would leave them exposed. He draws parallels with the situation south of Kreminna where Ukrainian forces had rotated and the Russians had exploited a weakness. Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians realised what had happened in the Terny and Torska area and counterattacked, pushing the Russians back and gaining momentum. This presents a dilemma for the Russians as to whether they pull troops back from an imminent offensive operation in the north (towards Borova) or press on with this attack and risk losing more ground around Terny and Torska. Jonathan believes that this was a good move by the Ukrainians as it has forced the Russians into a difficult decision. He then moves past the area around Bilohorivka, noting no change in this area.

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Bakhmut Frontline Update - Chasiv Yar, Kalinivka and Canal Micro-district

🎦 09:38-12:07⏩

Jonathan reports no changes to the mapping from the previous day around Chasiv Yar. He then goes on to look at information from the various mapping sources which suggests there have been some changes in this area that are yet to be updated by JR. Surat Maps suggests that the Russians have been making incremental gains in this area over the past 10 days, managing to capture buildings at the Chasiv Yar plant in the Canal Micro-district as well as entering the forest south of Kalinivka. Jonathan explains that this will mean we will likely see some updates to the mapping in this area by JR. No Report, a mapping source, has suggested that there is geolocated footage to corroborate this and that the Russians have regained a foothold in Kalinivka. However, they are more cautious and describe the situation as dynamic as there has been back and forth between the Ukrainians and Russians. Jonathan echoes the point made by No Report about the situation being dynamic, particularly around Kalinivka. He questions the yo-yoing of the maps, particularly by Surat Maps and says that it is better to be more cautious like Andrew Perpetua and Deep State Maps and keep areas marked as Russian control unless there is very strong evidence to suggest otherwise. He concludes this section by suggesting that these movements could be significant as the Russians push further west, north of Chasiv Yar.

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Bakhmut Frontline Update - Turetsk and Avdiivka

🎦 12:07-13:15⏩

Jonathan reports that there is no change to the mapping from the previous day in the area around Turetsk, which he describes as getting hammered by Russian missiles and aviation as they try to press home their advantage in this sector. Jonathan then moves south to the Avdiivka sector and reports that there were no changes to the mapping there yesterday but that Surat Maps will be making some updates based on Russian gains.

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Avdiivka Frontline Update - Novoaleksandrivka and Vozhdydy

🎦 13:15-14:14⏩

Jonathan reports that the Russians have captured Novoaleksandrivka and have begun pushing north towards Vozhdydy (Vozdyzhne) in an attempt to cut the T0504 highway that connects Pokrovsk to Kostantynivka. He explains that whilst the road is not under fire control, it is dangerous to use as it is within range of Russian artillery, and that every metre the Russians advance brings this key road within range.

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Avdiivka Frontline Update - Sokil and Nova Pokrovka

🎦 14:14-14:59⏩

Jonathan reports that No Report has suggested that Russian forces, whilst advancing slower than they were earlier in the year, have almost captured all of Sokil. He goes on to explain that No Report is suggesting that the Russians have made additional gains east of Nova Pokrovka, although they describe control of this latter settlement as disputed. Jonathan explains that this is largely in line with what is being shown on his map.

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Donetsk Oblast Update - Krasnohorivka and Pervomaiske

🎦 14:59-15:55⏩

Jonathan reports no change on the maps around Pervomaiske but that there are changes around Krasnohorivka. Andrew Perpetua, he explains, has removed the area from his map which showed a Ukrainian counterattack (with Bradleys) south of Krasnohorivka. Jonathan explains how this was a bit of a mystery at the time as it was deep inside Russian held territory. Jonathan then shares information from Surat Maps which claims that the Russians have been attacking in two axes at Krasnohorivka, the first one being near the hospital and the second in the micro-district to the south. There is, according to Surat Maps, street fighting taking place on the streets of Lomonsova, Voroshilovo, Tostiv, Khmelnytskoho, and outside the agricultural technical school. Jonathan concludes that the Russians appear to be trying to link their advances in the north and south of the town to encircle Ukrainian forces. He finishes by stating that it is looking difficult for the Ukrainians in Krasnohorivka.

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Donetsk Oblast - Mariinka, Heorhiivka and Maksymilianivka

🎦 15:55-17:47⏩

Jonathan moves south to the Mariinka area, explaining that there have been claims of Russian advances in this area, specifically around Heorhiivka and Maksymilianivka. He states that these gains are a concern as the Russians are making steady progress towards Kurakhove, a strategically important town with a reservoir. This town, he explains, is on a key road that leads south to Velyka Novosilka, one of the main objectives for the Russians. Jonathan goes on to explain that north of this area, around Vuhledar, the situation is more difficult for the Russians as the Ukrainians are well dug in and the terrain is in their favour. This area, he suggests, would be difficult for the Russians to take but south of this area, it would be easier, especially if they were able to reach Kurakhove, as they could then push on towards Velyka Novosilka and cut off this area of the Oblast. He concludes that this whole area will be one of the main areas of focus for the Russians.

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Donetsk Oblast - Maksymilianivka, Novomykhailivka and Kostantynivka

🎦 17:47-19:00⏩

Jonathan reports that Surat Maps has claimed that Russian forces have made small advances on the eastern outskirts of Maksymilianivka and to the south of Novomykhailivka. He explains how Novomykhailivka has been an expensive area for the Russians to capture, having lost a lot of equipment in their attempts to take it, but that they are pushing on with their advance, moving through Paraskeviivka and getting dangerously close to Kostantynivka. According to Surat Maps, a large area of land to the west of Novomykhailivka, has been taken by the Russians. Jonathan explains that we can expect to see this reflected in future map updates. Andrew Perpetua, however, is reporting a smaller advance by the Russians in this area, supported by video evidence of tanks and other equipment being used in an attack in the tree lines south of Novomykhailivka.

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Southern Front Update: Velyka Novosilka, Robotyne and Dnipro River

🎦 19:00-19:25⏩

Jonathan reports that there are no changes to the mapping further south. The situation around Velyka Novosilka has quietened down, as has the fighting around Robotyne, although Jonathan acknowledges that there is still heavy fighting taking place in these areas. He concludes by saying that the situation around the Dnipro River is stable since the Ukrainians withdrew their bridgehead.

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Wrap up

🎦 19:25-19:38⏩

Jonathan hopes that today's update was useful, reminds people to like, subscribe, and share his content and signs off.

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