Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
"Comments like that are super freaking important... So one, it means that France is willing to give some seriously good stuff to Ukraine but the reason they're willing to give that, obviously it fits in line with the strategic interests of France and Ukraine winning and Russia losing, but it's about France's credibility in the long term."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:25⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a second part of the Ukraine War Update for 16th March 2024, specifically focusing on military aid. He explains he's had to separate the military aid segment from his geopolitical analysis due to the sheer volume of news.
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Mike Johnson Omits Ukraine in Speech on Global Threats
🎦 00:25-02:03⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration with Mike Johnson, who, during a speech, expressed concern over threats to stability in Europe and the Middle East while highlighting Israel and Taiwan's fight for existence, but failing to mention Ukraine. Jonathan believes this omission speaks volumes about Johnson's true stance and is likely why a US aid package for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress.
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Weimar Triangle Announces Support for Ukraine
🎦 02:03-06:37⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent meeting of the Weimar Triangle (France, Germany, and Poland) in Berlin. He highlights the significance of the immediate measures announced by German Chancellor Scholz, alongside the French and Polish leaders:
- Procurement of military aid for Ukraine from the global market (a notable shift for France, which has typically prioritised domestic and EU industries).
- Expansion of military equipment production, including potential collaborations with Ukraine.
- Establishment of a new "capability coalition" focused on far-reaching rocket artillery. Jonathan believes this implies a green light for Western-made equipment capable of striking within Russia's borders, marking a significant escalation.
- Increased financial support for Ukraine through the European Peace Facility (€5 billion), a strengthened training mission, and using frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons.
Jonathan praises this organised and substantial ramp-up of European support, particularly in light of the US Congress's impasse.
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Finland, Czechia, and the Baltics Echo Macron's Stance on Troop Deployment
🎦 06:37-07:09⏩
Jonathan points out that Finland, Czechia, the Baltics, and Canada have echoed French President Macron's stance on not ruling out the deployment of troops to Ukraine in the long term, should the situation escalate. Finland, however, clarifies they are not currently considering this step.
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EU Mobilizes €2 Billion for Defence Projects to Aid Ukraine
🎦 07:09-07:30⏩
Jonathan reports that the EU Commission has mobilised €2 billion for defence projects, including armaments production, joint purchases, and research, with the goal of speeding up deliveries to Ukraine. He sees this as a positive step, particularly given the ongoing challenges with US aid.
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The High Cost of Ammunition for Ukraine
🎦 07:30-08:46⏩
Jonathan highlights the significant cost of ammunition being used in the conflict. He notes that, according to sources in Germany and Ukraine, each round fired from a Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun costs $500-$600, making even seemingly simple defensive actions extremely expensive.
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Greece Provides Substantial Military Aid to Ukraine
🎦 08:46-09:31⏩
Jonathan outlines the substantial military aid package Greece has pledged to Ukraine, coming just two weeks after the alleged Russian attempt to assassinate the Greek Prime Minister. The package includes:
- 2,005-inch Zuni rockets (air-launched)
- 182.75-inch anti-tank rockets
- 90,000 90mm anti-tank/anti-aircraft ammunition
- 4 million bullets
- 70 US-made M114A1 howitzers (155mm)
Jonathan welcomes this significant contribution from Greece, noting that the howitzers, in particular, will be valuable assets for Ukraine. He also mentions Greece's participation in a coalition to assist with demining efforts in Ukraine.
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Lithuania, Sweden, and Finland Announce Further Military Aid
🎦 09:31-10:40⏩
Jonathan covers further aid announcements:
- Lithuania: Preparing a new batch of military aid for Ukraine, including aircraft missiles.
- Sweden: Donating nine jet skis to Ukraine for maritime surveillance, which are reportedly in high demand and can be delivered immediately.
- Finland: Approving an ASAP application for Namo Lapuaoi, which will receive €22.5 million to expand 155mm shell body production. Additionally, Namo Vitavurioi will get €10 million to increase gunpowder production. Jonathan sees this as an excellent example of public and private sector collaboration, with the government strategically investing to expedite the production of essential supplies for Ukraine.
Norway Invests in Kongsberg to Boost NASAMS Production
🎦 10:40-12:28⏩
Jonathan reports that the Norwegian government is investing additional funds into Kongsberg, the co-manufacturer of NASAMS air defence systems, to enable the large-scale pre-ordering of sub-components. This investment aims to significantly shorten delivery times for NASAMS launchers, which are in high demand, especially from Ukraine. While the specifics of the deal are unclear, Jonathan notes the Norwegian government's commitment to supporting Ukraine through this strategic investment.
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France Supplies Ukraine with AASM Hammer Guided Bombs
🎦 12:28-14:24⏩
Jonathan analyses a recently released image of a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet armed with a French-supplied AASM Hammer guided bomb, a significant development in Ukraine's aerial capabilities. He highlights:
- AASM Hammer Bombs: These 500-pound class bombs are GPS and INS-guided, offering high precision and significant destructive power.
- French Supply: France will provide Ukraine with 50 AASM bombs per month, ultimately delivering a total of 600.
- Strategic Implications: Jonathan believes this could mark a turning point, potentially enabling Ukraine to strike high-value targets within Russia. He questions the impact on Russia's air defence system, speculating whether they will be forced to redeploy assets from protecting energy infrastructure to counter this new threat, creating vulnerabilities elsewhere.
France's Growing Military Support for Ukraine
🎦 14:24-18:03⏩
Jonathan dissects a statement made by French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu regarding the supply of AASM bombs to Ukraine. Lecornu highlighted the technological achievement of integrating the bombs onto Soviet-era aircraft, emphasising that it demonstrates France's commitment to providing effective military equipment, ultimately enhancing France's long-term credibility. Jonathan delves into the multi-faceted implications of this statement:
- France's Growing Commitment: France is prepared to provide Ukraine with high-quality military equipment, signalling their deepening involvement in the conflict.
- Political and Economic Credibility: By supplying Ukraine with advanced weaponry, France bolsters its political standing as a reliable ally and showcases its defence industry capabilities, potentially leading to future export opportunities.
- Comparison with the UK: Jonathan notes that while the UK has been vocal about its support, France's military aid contributions as a percentage of GDP might actually be higher.
- Anticipation of Further French Aid: The provision of AASM bombs, coupled with Macron's earlier rhetoric and recent actions, suggests a significant increase in French military support for Ukraine, including the possibility of Mirage fighter jets being supplied.
Germany Considers Supplying Taurus Cruise Missiles to Ukraine
🎦 18:03-19:16⏩
Jonathan reports that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is pushing for Chancellor Scholz to approve the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. He notes that the Greens, Baerbock's party, are strongly in favour of this move, possibly due to being targeted by Russian disinformation campaigns and their opposition to Russian hydrocarbons. The FDP also supports the transfer. However, Scholz and the SDP appear hesitant. One proposed option involves Germany supplying the missiles to the UK, who would then transfer them to Ukraine while retaining control over their use.
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Russia Recruits Mercenaries from Economically Challenged Nations
🎦 19:16-20:12⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's increasing reliance on foreign mercenaries to bolster its depleted forces in Ukraine. He cites reports indicating recruitment from countries like Cuba, India, Nepal, Serbia, various African nations, Latin America, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. Jonathan suggests that this influx of mercenaries allows Russia to sustain its offensive operations despite suffering heavy casualties. He estimates that Russia is potentially losing and recruiting around 30,000 soldiers per month, highlighting the scale of the conflict and the Kremlin's desperation to maintain its manpower.
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Significant Decrease in Russia's Prison Population Suggests Use as Combatants
🎦 20:12-22:03⏩
Jonathan cites Dara Massicot's interview with Christiane Amanpour on CNN, which reveals a significant drop in Russia's prison population since the war began. The number has fallen from around 400,000 to 266,000, a decrease of 134,000. Jonathan believes this strongly suggests that Russia is deploying prisoners to the front lines, echoing the tactics of the Wagner Group. He cynically notes that this approach serves multiple purposes for the Kremlin: it provides a readily available pool of manpower at minimal cost, avoids rehabilitation expenses, and reduces the future burden on the prison system. Jonathan points out that Ukraine is likely aware of this tactic and might be considering similar, albeit morally distinct, approaches to utilising its own prison population.
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International Pressure Mounts on Iran over Ballistic Missile Supplies to Russia
🎦 22:03-23:13⏩
Jonathan reports that the US and six other world powers have issued a stern warning to Iran against providing ballistic missiles to Russia. While there have been claims and counterclaims about the extent of Iran's existing military support for Russia, the G7 nations are prepared to impose severe penalties if Iran proceeds with the transfer of short-range ballistic missiles. Potential consequences include a ban on Iranian air travel to Europe. This development comes amid reports suggesting that North Korea might have already provided Russia with around 50 ballistic missiles.
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Ukraine Claims Cyberattack Disrupted Russian Missile Production
🎦 23:13-23:45⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's claim that its cyber specialists have successfully disrupted the supply chain for components used in Russian Shahed drones and cruise missiles. According to Ilia Vitiuk, head of the SBU's cybersecurity department, Ukraine's actions have blocked the delivery of server motors intended for 1,600 Shahed drones and 4,000 microcircuits essential for cruise missile production. Jonathan links this to reports that Russia hasn't launched a large-scale cruise missile attack on Ukraine in 38 days, speculating that the cyberattack might be hampering Russia's ability to replenish its missile stocks.
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US Dominance in NATO's Air Power
🎦 23:45-26:55⏩
Jonathan, citing Thomas Tyner, highlights the overwhelming air power disparity within NATO. He points out that the five largest fighter jet forces in NATO are all branches of the US military: the US Air Force, US Navy, US Marine Corps, US Air National Guard, and the US Air Force Reserve. These combined forces dwarf the air power of any other NATO member, with Turkey, Germany, Greece, France, and Italy trailing far behind. This stark imbalance underscores Europe's heavy reliance on the US for defence, a reality that sustains America's massive defence industry. Jonathan acknowledges that while Europeans often face criticism for their comparatively lower defence spending, this situation benefits the US in several ways. The US essentially underwrites European security, bolstering its own economy through defence contracts. Should Europe increase its defence spending and strive for greater independence, it could potentially challenge US dominance in the global arms market. This complex interplay of factors highlights the nuanced realities of the transatlantic defence relationship.
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Wrap up
🎦 26:55-27:16⏩
Jonathan concludes by encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, share the video, and become members. He expresses his gratitude for their support. He also reminds viewers to activate notifications to stay updated.
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