Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid

"Somebody's been listening to my videos. This is what I've been claiming should happen for quite some time now. And although it's not quite as far as I would go, which is actually operate them from outside of Ukraine, touch them down to get refuelled or maybe tooled up with some weaponry inside Ukraine, just as quick as possible, have that done, take off, do their missions, and then go back to Western countries."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:26⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War Update, reminding them that he also posted a European Election breaking news update earlier in the day. He will post a more detailed geopolitics video later in the day, covering the European elections in more detail.

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France forms "Coalition of the Willing" to train Ukrainian pilots; US, Germany, Hungary, Spain decline

🎦 00:26-01:15⏩

France forms "Coalition of the Willing", inviting the UK, Poland, Netherlands, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark and Sweden to join them in sending military trainers to Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops. The US, Germany, Hungary and Spain declined to take part. Jonathan questions whether the training will be interrupted by the recent European elections, and what impact this will have on aid/policies for Ukraine.

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France to send six Mirage 2005 fighter jets to Ukraine; Zelensky's Qatar visit linked to potential Mirage purchases

🎦 01:15-03:11⏩

France confirms it will send six Mirage 2005 fighter jets to Ukraine. With France only having 26 in total, and Ukraine hoping for 12, Jonathan speculates that the remaining aircraft could be sourced from other countries. He notes that Zelensky made a stopover in Qatar - which has 12 Mirage 2005s it wants to sell - before the Normandy D-Day commemorations, and questions whether this was a coincidence. He also notes that Zelensky met with Dassault Aviation, who manufacture the Mirage.

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Debate over Mirage acquisition: Prioritising Storm Shadow missile compatibility versus existing SU-24M airframe use

🎦 03:11-04:19⏩

Jonathan discusses the decision to modify the Mirage 2005s to carry Scalp Storm Shadow air launched cruise missiles, citing analysis from John Ridge, who argues that this isn't necessary because Ukraine already has SU-24M airframes which can carry them. Ridge argues that unless Storm Shadow production increases, it would be better to continue to use the existing Soviet-era stock. Jonathan acknowledges this, but suggests it would be wise to give Ukraine the option to fire the missiles from Mirage jets, in case Storm Shadow/Scalp EG production is ramped up in the future.

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Timeline for Ukrainian F-16 pilot readiness and full F-16 deployment discussed

🎦 04:19-06:52⏩

Jonathan discusses the timeline for F-16 deployment, reporting that 20 Ukrainian pilots will be ready to fly combat missions by the end of the year, but that it will take 18 months to fully equip the jets ready for handover. He suggests that F-16s will be introduced gradually, and that Ukraine will likely "dip their toe in the water", to assess Russian responses before deploying more widely. He notes that the US will only train a maximum of 12 pilots at any one time, which is causing frustration for some, but highlights John Ridge's view that this is due to USAF doctrine - to ensure adequate numbers of US pilots are trained - rather than a political decision.

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Senator Lindsey Graham calls for increased support for Ukraine, including F-16s and long-range artillery

🎦 06:52-08:54⏩

Jonathan discusses Senator Lindsey Graham's call for the US to "either help Ukraine or not", advocating for them to be given F-16s, long range artillery, and permission to use these to target sites within Russia. Jonathan describes Graham's support for Ukraine as "volatile", noting that whilst he strongly supported Ukraine initially, he changed his position during Trump's presidency, aligning himself with the MAGA Republican stance to protect his own political position. Jonathan believes that Graham compromised on his values because "there's compromise on him that's held over him". Now that this pressure has eased, he has reverted to his previous pro-Ukraine stance.

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Ukraine to store F-16s at secure air bases outside the country for protection, maintenance and pilot training

🎦 08:54-11:08⏩

Jonathan reports that some F-16s will be stored at secure airbases outside of Ukraine. Although this isn't quite what Jonathan himself has been advocating - which is to operate the aircraft from outside of Ukraine - he describes this as the "next best thing" and "super important", because it will protect the aircraft from attack. Jonathan believes that NATO countries should be used as a "garage" to protect the F16 fleet, and that maintenance should also be carried out at these bases, rather than in Ukraine, to reduce the risk of the aircraft being destroyed on the ground.

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Ukrainian Air Force Commander: F-16s not a "panacea" for air superiority, but will be a valuable asset along with other defence systems

🎦 11:08-12:01⏩

Jonathan reports that - according to the chief of aviation of the Ukrainian Air Force, General Golubtsov - the transfer of F-16s shouldn't be seen as a guaranteed way of securing air superiority for Ukraine. Golubtsov highlights the combination of air defences, electronic warfare and radio detection equipment that will be needed in order to achieve this. Jonathan agrees that it is unlikely that the F-16s will enable Ukraine to gain air superiority over Ukraine, but welcomes their arrival nonetheless.

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Ukrainian F-16 deployment details: initial numbers, modernization, air base protection and reserve aircraft for training

🎦 12:01-13:41⏩

Jonathan reports that the first F-16s are expected to arrive in Ukraine later this year. It is thought that around 10 will be sent initially, with the rest being kept in reserve in NATO countries, where they will be used to train Ukrainian pilots. All of the F-16s have been modernised, and will be equipped with improved radar optics and a container allowing for missiles and bombs to be directed at ground targets. Golubtsov highlights the need for robust air defences to protect the airbases from where the F-16s will operate, noting that the Russians will know where these are and will target them. He suggests that at least two Patriot batteries and two NASAMS batteries will be needed to protect the bases. Jonathan agrees, noting that Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast (where the F-16s are likely to be based) has already been subjected to repeated attacks from the Russians.

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Ukraine develops its own version of the JDAM-ER bomb and increases production of precision air bombs

🎦 13:41-15:06⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine is developing its own version of the Russian UMPC and American JDAM-ER. He speculates that the Ukrainian version is likely to have both GPS and inertial guidance, overcoming the issues with GPS jamming that has impacted on JDAMs. Jonathan draws comparisons with the Storm Shadow cruise missile, which is very difficult to jam because it also has terrain mapping capability. He also reports that Ukraine is now using 300 high-precision air bombs per month (a tenfold increase), but notes that this is still significantly less than the number being used by Russia.

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French AASM Hammer bombs integrated onto Ukrainian SU-25 attack aircraft, enhancing strike capabilities

🎦 15:06-15:43⏩

Jonathan reports that France's AASM Hammer (Armement Air-Sol Modulaire) precision-guided bomb has been integrated onto Ukrainian SU-25 attack aircraft. This means that three Ukrainian aircraft can now carry the AASM Hammer - the SU-27, MiG-29 and SU-25. There are also plans to adapt the SU-24M to carry the weapon. Jonathan welcomes the news, describing it as "really good", as it will enhance Ukraine's ability to use NATO munitions.

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Ukraine confirms infrastructure compatibility with Gripen fighter jets, highlighting their advantages over F-16s

🎦 15:43-19:15⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has the infrastructure in place to accommodate Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets, quoting Golubtsov as saying "these jets will be very very simple for us in the sense that the infrastructure for them is already suitable in Ukraine". Jonathan highlights the advantages of the Gripen, noting that they are cheaper to run than the F-16, have a smaller crew and - crucially - are able to operate from roads. The Gripen can also be equipped with Meteor long-range missiles. Jonathan is very enthusiastic about Gripens, describing them as "the prime aircraft" for Ukraine. He believes that they are ideally suited to countering the Russian aircraft, but laments that there are not enough available for Ukraine, and that pilot training would also be an issue. Jonathan reiterates that the reason why Sweden paused plans to supply Gripens to Ukraine is not because Ukraine doesn't want them (they do) or because Sweden don't want to send them (they do), but because the US and other countries supplying F-16s asked them to, as it was proving too logistically complex to supply Ukraine with three different types of aircraft at the same time. Despite this, he describes the fact that Sweden and Ukraine are still open to the possibility of Gripens being sent to Ukraine in the future as "fantastic news".

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US provides Ukraine with entire stock of Zuni unguided rockets from the 1950s, highlighting depletion of certain munitions

🎦 19:15-20:24⏩

Jonathan reports that the US has given Ukraine its entire stock of 5-inch Zuni unguided rockets. These unguided rockets, which have been in service since the 1950s, have all been used in combat in Ukraine. Jonathan is surprised that the US still had any Zuni rockets left, describing it as "rather amazing".

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Ukraine develops shrapnel mortars with large blast radius

🎦 20:24-21:19⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has developed shrapnel mortars, which are designed to disperse shrapnel over a larger area. He explains that the lack of precision of these mortars is compensated for by the spread of shrapnel.

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Confirmation that Ukrainian Patriot missile system destroyed a Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft in January 2024

🎦 21:19-23:09⏩

Jonathan reports that - according to Colonel Clemente, Assistant Chief of Staff of the 10th AAMDC - a German Patriot missile system was responsible for shooting down a Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft in January 2024. This refutes Russian claims that the aircraft was destroyed by friendly fire. Jonathan notes that it is unsurprising that Russia tried to blame the destruction of the aircraft on friendly fire, as it makes them look less incompetent. He also highlights comments made by the Assistant Chief of Staff of the 10th AAMDC that the Ukrainians are using the Patriot system in ways that the US hadn't anticipated - moving them around in what she calls "Sandbush" (Surface to Air Ambush). He agrees with Thomas Stein's assessment that "nothing has shot down more Russian planes than the German-donated Patriot battery".

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Russia up-armours its "Baba Yaga" octocopter drones with 5mm armour to increase survivability

🎦 23:09-23:51⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia has upgraded its "Baba Yaga" octocopter drones, fitting them with 5mm armour. This will make the drones, which are used to drop multiple munitions, more resistant to small arms fire. Jonathan observes that, due to their size, the drones are relatively noisy and are therefore more likely to be used at night.

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Russia forces African students to fight in Ukraine, threatening visa expirations

🎦 23:51-24:20⏩

Jonathan reports that - according to Bloomberg - Russia has been forcing African students to fight in Ukraine. Russian officials have been threatening to refuse to extend the visas of students who refuse to sign up.

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Russia steps up military recruitment in Crimea, offering incentives such as land plots

🎦 24:20-25:15⏩

Jonathan reports that Russian authorities in occupied Crimea have increased efforts to recruit soldiers, offering incentives such as land plots. Jonathan speculates that Russia is giving away land in occupied Crimea. He describes Russia's actions as "stealing people from abroad" and suggests that it's indicative of their desperation for new recruits.

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Explosion at Polish arms factory raises concerns about potential sabotage

🎦 25:15-26:25⏩

Jonathan reports that there has been an explosion at an SA Arms factory in southeastern Poland. The explosion, which killed one worker, is thought to have originated at the factory's rocket fuel centre. Although it is unclear whether the explosion was a result of an accident or sabotage, Jonathan highlights that there have been a number of explosions at other arms factories in Europe and the US in recent months (including at BAE Systems in Wales). He suggests that sabotage is a real possibility, and that - if this is the case - it would be "doubly bad" as it will not only result in the loss of life but also impact on the production of vital munitions.

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Wrap Up

🎦 26:25-26:39⏩

Jonathan explains that he's going to have to end the video there, as he has a live stream to prepare for, and had forgotten all about it. He jokes that he forgot due to having primary progressive multiple sclerosis, before signing off.

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