Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News
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"It is important now that we are among several countries to step up their support, and our 14th support package should be seen as a signal of the deep Swedish engagement to long-term and sustainable support."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces this video as a short Ukraine War news update for 19th October 2023, focusing on military aid and geopolitical news. He jokes that despite intending it to be brief, it will likely end up being quite long as usual.
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US Aid Package to Ukraine
- The White House is preparing to submit an additional request to Congress for a $60 billion aid package to Ukraine until September 2024.
- This will be packaged together with aid to Israel and other global issues, in the hopes it will pass more easily given strong support for Israel in US politics.
- However, challenges remain with no Republican House majority speaker currently in place. Potential candidates like Jim Jordan are not favourable for Ukraine aid.
- Jonathan believes the aid package needs to go through and shares his analysis, while welcoming other opinions in the comments.
Putin Admits ATACMS Mistake
- Speaking at a press conference in Beijing for China's Belt and Road forum, Putin admitted providing ATACMS to Ukraine was a "great mistake" by the US.
- He acknowledged the missiles pose an additional threat to Russian forces, but expressed confidence they could repel the strikes and that ATACMS were incapable of changing the front line situation.
- Putin also claimed the US was increasingly being drawn into the conflict, which Jonathan disputes, seeing no real difference between providing ATACMS vs F-16s.
Russia Thanks North Korea
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov thanked North Korea for its "fundamental unequivocal support" in the war against Ukraine and its recognition of illegally annexed Ukrainian territories. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has denied North Korea is supplying Russia with weapons, highlighting contradictions in their statements. Syria is the only other country to recognise the illegal annexations.
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Sweden Considers Sending Gripen Jets
- Sweden is moving closer to potentially sending Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine. Defence Minister Paul Jansson has instructed the military to examine the impact of providing Gripen planes, with a report due by November 6th.
- Experts suggest even 10 planes would greatly benefit Ukraine. While it could take up to a year to deploy them, it is seen as inevitable.
- Sending Gripens would also benefit Swedish defence company Saab as a marketing opportunity. However, Sweden wants to first secure NATO membership before risking the jets.
- Support for arming Ukraine remains very strong among the Swedish public and government, with Jansson signalling their deep, long-term commitment.
Outdated Russian Equipment in Crimea
Footage from Crimea shows Russia moving outdated Soviet Grozdnika self-propelled guns to occupied Yevpatoria. This suggests Russia is being forced to resort to older equipment due to heavy losses. However, Jonathan notes the 6 guns shown would only last half a day given current attrition rates, so it's unclear if this represents a significant deployment that Ukrainians need to be concerned about.
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Shell Shortages on the Front Lines
- Ukrainian troops are facing shortages of certain artillery shells, according to interviews on the Ukraine: The Latest podcast.
- Soldiers praised UK-provided L119 howitzers but only have 5 shells per week for them. As a result, they are bringing out old Soviet-era D-44 howitzers which they still have ammunition for.
- This highlights the urgent need for NATO countries to ramp up shell production, as stockpiles gathered for the counteroffensive are dwindling.
- Both sides face challenges, with Russia also struggling and drawing on North Korean supplies. However, this will not be enough to sustain their current level of artillery use.
Russia-China Grain Deal
Russia and China have signed their largest ever contract for grain supply, worth $25.7 billion. China is seeking to diversify its food imports, as it leases agricultural land in Ukraine which is at risk from potential Russian nuclear strikes. However, since the invasion began, Russia has stolen millions of tons of Ukrainian grain from occupied territories, which may be included in the deal with China.
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Zelensky's Balancing Act
In an interview, foreign policy expert Professor J. Carafano discusses the key factors President Zelensky must balance:
- Prosecuting the war - Ukrainians expect a counteroffensive to retake territory but it can't compromise future defensive capabilities
- Politics - Elections can't be delayed too long without undermining stability. Zelensky will want to time them to put his government in the strongest position
- Setting conditions for negotiations - Not with Russia, but aligning with key partners and allies to support Ukraine's negotiating position
Carafano believes any deal will be limited in scope, focused on deterrence and leaving Ukraine in a strong position to prevent future Russian aggression. How Zelensky manages these aspects will shape Ukraine's hand at the negotiating table.
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Other News
- Zelensky thanked the Norwegian Prime Minister for recent military aid in a phone call. They discussed frontline developments, defence priorities, and strengthening air defences to protect critical infrastructure and grain exports.
- An EU official said Ukrainian refugees have helped reduce labour shortages in many European countries, with 1.87 million Ukrainians signing employment contracts across 19 EU states.
- The Georgian parliament failed to impeach pro-EU President Salome Zurabishvili. The increasingly pro-Kremlin ruling party Georgian Dream did not secure enough votes, after taking offense to her meeting EU politicians to discuss Georgia's EU accession intentions.
Wrap up
Jonathan wraps up this Ukraine war news update, thanking viewers for watching and encouraging them to like, subscribe and share the video. He appreciates everyone's support and will be back with more updates soon.
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