Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News - Xi-Putin Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"The logic of events dictates that we are fully becoming a resource colony of China. Our servers will be from Huawei. China will receive gas via the power of Siberia. By the end of 2023, the yuan will be our main currency of trade"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War update for 22nd March 2023 and notes that he'll be covering Russian losses from the day before, as per Ukrainian sources. He reminds viewers that these figures should be taken as indicative as they may not be entirely accurate.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:20-02:17⏩
Jonathan lists Russian losses based on Ukrainian data, noting that while these figures are often considered inaccurate or propaganda, he believes they are useful to observe trends. He highlights that losses are high, with 920 personnel, 5 tanks, 8 APCs, and 2 MLRS being destroyed. He's previously discussed that Ukrainian forces are targeting artillery systems in particular, evidenced by recent claims and figures, as well as 2 anti-aircraft systems which are expensive and difficult to replace. The consistent degradation of this capability will likely be beneficial for any forthcoming offensive. Jonathan notes a Russian drone and missile attack the previous night with 16 of 21 drones destroyed, as well as two cruise missiles potentially targeting Odesa. He also highlights the loss of 6 vehicles and fuel tanks, as well as four pieces of special equipment, likely adding up to a considerable amount.
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Drone footage - Evidence of Russian Losses
🎦 02:17-03:54⏩
To support the figures, Jonathan discusses a video (which he doesn't show) of a trench south of Avdiivka filled with Russian corpses, reportedly inflicted by the 35th Marine Brigade. He estimates around 100 bodies in the trench alone. Jonathan acknowledges the tragedy of these losses, reminding viewers that these are human beings. He also mentions videos of the 35th Marine Brigade successfully targeting Russian forces with IEDs launched from drones in this area. He states that footage of a destroyed Russian armor column - likely APCs and tanks - has also been released.
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Excalibur Round destroys Russian SPG
🎦 03:54-05:06⏩
Jonathan highlights the use of an Excalibur round to destroy a Russian self-propelled gun near Avdiivka. Whilst acknowledging that Excalibur rounds are expensive, he suggests that they are important for taking out high-value targets such as SPGs, especially given that Ukraine has limited artillery ammunition.
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Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 05:06-06:16⏩
Jonathan notes the downing of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter that hit power lines in occupied Ukraine on March 16th, killing the crew. He then issues a correction to a report from the previous day about an aircraft being downed in Donetsk. Footage from a different angle reveals that it was an SPG that was destroyed, not an aircraft.
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Mariupol, Odesa and Kyiv hit in Russian attacks
🎦 06:16-07:38⏩
Jonathan reports on Russian attacks on Mariupol, Odesa, and Kyiv. Explosions have been heard in Mariupol which has been hit repeatedly. There were missile attacks on Odesa. A wave of 21 Shahed drones was reportedly launched from the Bryansk region towards Kyiv, resulting in a three-storey academic building, a lyceum, being destroyed in the city of Ryzhyshchiv, near Kyiv.
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Ukraine targets Sevastopol
🎦 07:38-09:24⏩
Jonathan discusses reports from Russian occupation officials in Crimea claiming that three Ukrainian USVs (unmanned sea vehicles) entered Sevastopol harbour but were detected and destroyed. Footage of one drone on fire has been released, but Jonathan notes reports of aerial drones in Sevastopol too. Whilst Russian forces claim all drones were neutralized, Jonathan speculates that an aerial drone may have been responsible for the large explosion in footage that appears to have originated very close to the ground. He considers the attack significant.
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Bird Flu
🎦 09:24-09:52⏩
Jonathan briefly diverts to a report about bird flu being detected in eight people hospitalized in Russian-occupied Kherson and potentially Crimea. He adds that bird flu cases have also been reported in Peru and the US.
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Ukraine produces 122mm Artillery Shells
🎦 09:52-10:43⏩
Ukraine has manufactured the first batch of 122mm artillery projectiles, adding to their existing 120mm and 125mm rounds. The projectiles were manufactured by Ukroboronprom in collaboration with an unnamed NATO country (Jonathan suspects Poland). Whilst this is a positive step, Jonathan questions the scale of production as Ukraine will need thousands of these rounds per day.
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Ukraine playing catch up on Armaments Production
🎦 10:43-11:18⏩
Jonathan notes that Ukraine feels Russia were much quicker at increasing their manufacturing capacity in preparation for war, and that Ukraine is now playing catch up.
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Finland donates Personnel Carriers
🎦 11:18-11:41⏩
Jonathan reports that Finland donated an estimated 20-30 Patria Pasi armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine last autumn. He points out that these vehicles, alongside equipment provided by numerous other countries, may be overlooked as Western media focuses on American contributions.
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Ukraine trains on Western Equipment
🎦 11:41-12:21⏩
Footage has been released of Ukrainian forces training on Western equipment in Germany, including Humvees and heavily modified Strykers. Jonathan anticipates that this equipment will be deployed in the forthcoming counteroffensive.
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Latvia Provides Medical Aid
🎦 12:21-12:43⏩
Latvia will donate nearly $321,000 worth of medical equipment to Ukraine. The donation has been approved by the Latvian government.
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UK to supply Depleted Uranium Rounds, Russia Responds
🎦 12:43-15:40⏩
The UK will provide Ukraine with depleted uranium rounds for their Challenger 2 tanks. The rounds are highly effective, capable of destroying any Russian tank. Jonathan notes that the German and Portuguese Leopard 2A6 tanks have the most powerful guns of the tanks supplied to Ukraine. He explains that Russia has responded to the news by threatening retaliation, accusing the UK of escalating the conflict by supplying weapons with a "nuclear component". The UK Ministry of Defence has rejected this, stating that depleted uranium is a standard component and is not a nuclear weapon. They also pointed out that Russia uses these rounds. Jonathan highlights that Russia is attempting to control the information space by worrying its domestic audience about an escalation by the West, whilst knowing that the UK is not escalating. He notes that depleted uranium is a by-product of the enrichment process and is less radioactive than naturally occurring uranium, although concerns remain about its toxicity.
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Russia uses Depleted Uranium
🎦 15:40-15:46⏩
Jonathan confirms that Russia does indeed use depleted uranium rounds, referencing an article on nationalinterest.org which reports that Russian tanks currently use such rounds, likely in Ukraine.
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US to send Refurbished Abrams Tanks to Ukraine
🎦 15:46-17:08⏩
The Pentagon has announced that it will supply Ukraine with refurbished M1A2 Abrams tanks instead of factory-new models to expedite delivery. Jonathan believes this is because the US is reluctant to supply tanks with depleted uranium armour, which they are prohibited from exporting, due to concerns that the technology could fall into Russian hands. He speculates that the tanks will likely be refurbished export models from Saudi Arabia or Iraq, and that the US will either backfill its stocks or supply these newly built tanks at a later date. Jonathan welcomes the news that Ukraine will receive tanks sooner than anticipated.
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US to send Patriot System to Ukraine
🎦 17:08-17:33⏩
The US has confirmed that it will send the first Patriot missile system to Ukraine in the coming weeks. Ukrainian troops have reportedly adapted to the system very quickly.
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Putting US Aid into Context
🎦 17:33-21:12⏩
Jonathan addresses the cost of US aid to Ukraine, which some are criticizing. He references figures from Statista showing that the annual cost of the Russia-Ukraine war to the US is $46.6 billion, compared to $43.4 billion for the Afghanistan war. He clarifies that the Afghanistan war lasted for 20 years (not 10 as stated) and cost $100 billion per year. Using this data, Jonathan argues that the Russia-Ukraine war is costing half as much as the Afghanistan war did, making it a relatively cheap war for the US. In fact, he goes as far as to suggest that the US is saving money compared to what it was spending previously. Jonathan then refers to a Forbes article about the cost of the Afghan war, which exceeded $2 trillion over 20 years, equating to $300 million per day. He reiterates that the Russia-Ukraine war costs half as much, despite the fact that the US is no longer incurring costs in Afghanistan. He concludes that, in budgetary terms, the US is spending less now than it was, though acknowledges that some believe the US should not be providing aid to Ukraine at all. Jonathan shares that Japan will provide $30 million in non-lethal aid to Ukraine.
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Japan's geopolitical position
🎦 21:12-21:53⏩
Jonathan notes that Japan is in an interesting geopolitical position, as it is located near China and therefore concerned about the security of the Indo-Pacific region. He suggests that this will influence Japan's response to the war in Ukraine.
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China's Drone Sales to Russia
🎦 21:53-24:05⏩
Jonathan discusses China's sale of over $12 million worth of drones and drone parts to Russia since the invasion began, citing Russian customs data reported in the New York Times. He clarifies that this is not necessarily the Russian state purchasing the equipment, but Chinese companies supplying Russia. He emphasizes that a considerable amount of the drone technology used by both sides in the conflict has come from donations, third parties, and individuals. This has led to Ukraine becoming reliant on commercially available drones from Chinese manufacturer DJI. In contrast, Russia has established a consistent supply from China. Jonathan then discusses the United24 initiative which was raising funds for drones for Ukraine. He questions where these drones are, as Ukraine has been appealing for more, and speculates that a considerable amount of the money raised is being used to support the forthcoming counteroffensive.
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US sanctions on Iran and Turkey
🎦 24:05-24:36⏩
Jonathan reports that the US has imposed sanctions on four companies and three individuals in Iran and Turkey for procuring equipment for Iran's drone and arms programs.
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Russia transfers Bridge Layers to Belarus
🎦 24:36-25:23⏩
Jonathan notes the transfer of Russian TMM-3 heavy brigade mechanized bridge layers to Belarus. He questions why, given that Belarus is to the northwest of Ukraine, a region with numerous rivers and marshes that would require significant bridge-laying equipment for any Russian offensive. He concludes that this supports the hypothesis that Russia is preparing an offensive from Belarus, but reiterates that there is a lack of evidence to suggest that such an offensive is feasible due to terrain and troop numbers.
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Hungary's position on Ukraine joining NATO
🎦 25:23-25:59⏩
Hungary will not support Ukraine joining NATO or the EU unless the rights of Transcarpathian Hungarians in Ukraine are restored.
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Japan's Prime Minister Visits Ukraine
🎦 25:59-26:32⏩
Jonathan highlights the significance of the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida to Ukraine, noting that this is likely the first time a Japanese premier has visited a country at war. He draws parallels to the post-WWII era and considers the visit to be an important one.
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Ireland would arrest Putin
🎦 26:32-27:02⏩
Jonathan reports that Ireland's Department of Justice has confirmed that they will arrest Putin if he sets foot in the country. This follows statements from other countries about the ICC arrest warrant issued against Putin. Jonathan jokes that Putin was likely looking forward to spending St. Patrick's Day in Dublin.
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Xi Jinping benefits from Russia meeting
🎦 27:02-33:48⏩
Jonathan revisits his prediction that Xi Jinping would gain more from his meeting with Putin in Moscow than Putin would, arguing that China is in a stronger position. He shares an article from the Financial Times about how Russia is becoming a resource colony for China, trading its natural resources in exchange for support, becoming ever more reliant on China. Jonathan highlights the asymmetry of this relationship. The article quotes a Kremlin source stating that the Yuan will be the main trading currency in Russia by the end of 2023. Jonathan then shares a thread by Sam Green, Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who argues that whilst official summits between autocrats should be viewed with a healthy dose of scepticism, the outcomes of the Xi-Putin meeting were striking in their one-sidedness. Green argues that China's peace plan is a "nothing burger", as it would require Ukraine and the West to agree to Russia retaining Ukrainian territory. Xi's endorsement of Putin's 2024 re-election bid is described as "humiliating", given that Xi does not have to even pretend to win an election. Green highlights how Russia's dependence on China has increased due to sanctions, forcing Russia to sell hydrocarbons to China at whatever price they determine. He concludes that the summit highlighted how much Putin has lost since before the war, stating that Putin had a degree of strategic maneuverability prior to 2014, being able to play East and West off against one another. Now, however, he has mortgaged the Kremlin to Beijing. Jonathan agrees with Green's assessment, pointing out that this could prolong the war as Russia will have access to funds. However, he questions how Russia will procure the military equipment it needs, given that it is struggling to manufacture its own. He concludes that, no matter the outcome of the war, China will benefit.
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Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia
🎦 35:26-35:57⏩
Jonathan reports on rising tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with both countries deploying military vehicles. Azerbaijan has cut off gas supplies to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
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Wrap Up
🎦 35:57-36:15⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and acknowledges that the update is longer than usual. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video, and provides details of how to support his channel in the description.
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