Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"In military terms, you're wasting opportunities there. So they're either being incredibly stupid or they don't need to drop bombs."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:25⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War Frontline update for 22nd January 2024. Viewers unfamiliar with the map are encouraged to familiarise themselves with the key.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Update

🎦 00:25-06:31⏩

Jonathan reports heavy fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna axis, with Russian forces making gains and advancing westwards.

• Russians captured the village of Krokmelna.
• Ukrainian forces are reported to be counter attacking in an attempt to retake the village.
• According to Ukrainian sources, 45 people lived in Krokmelna before the war.
• There has been historical military activity in the region but the Russians now appear to be making some progress.
• Jonathan gives thanks to JR for updating his maps.
• Rebar, a pro-Russian military blogger, notes that Russian forces are continuing to build on their success in the Svatove sector.
• Russian assault units have extended the zone of control to the north of Svatove, approaching Kota Kotlyarivka and Kislevka.
• There is no sign of the Russian advance to the West stopping and encounter attacks are taking place in Barastava and Krokmalna.
• Jonathan notes that the village of Krokmelna is very small consisting of around 10-12 houses and that the Ukrainians may have inflicted heavy losses on the Russians after ceding the village (giving the Russians a "welcome present".
• Vladimir Fitio, spokesman for the Ukrainian Ground Forces in the area, described the recent capture of Krokmelna.
• Jonathan moves on to provide an update from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
• Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest of Svatove amid continued positional fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatova line on 21st January, although there are no confirmed changes to the frontline.
• A pro-Kremlin milblogger claims that Russian forces advanced southwest of Krokmalna and are approaching the eastern outskirts of Brestova.
• The milblogger also claims that the Russians have recently captured a 4km wide section of the R07 highway from Krokmelny and an unspecified section of the R07 highway near Novoselytsya. Jonathan speculates that this must refer to the R07 highway to the north and south of Krokmelny.
• The ISW is yet to observe evidence to support these claims.
• Geolocated imagery from 20th January confirms that Russian forces captured the town of Krokmelny and Russian sources claim that imagery shows elements of the Russian 47th Guards Tank division in the settlement.
• Both Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that positional fighting continues northeast of Kupyansk, near Synkivka and Lake Lyman, east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka, northwest of Svatove near Krokmalna and Stelmakhivka, and west of Svatove near Kolomyychikha.
• Jonathan highlights that the Russians have struggled to break through in and around Synkivka and the frontline there therefore remains fairly static.
• Fitchio stated that Russian forces have lost 7,055 personnel in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions in January 2024 alone. Jonathan points out that if the Russians are losing 1,000 soldiers a day across the whole of Ukraine, then approximately one third of their losses are in this sector.
• Russian forces lost 14,000 personnel in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions in December 2023, which is higher than the casualty rate so far in January.
• Jonathan highlights that the high daily casualty figures suggest that a large portion of these losses will be coming from this axis.

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Bilohirka Frontline Update

🎦 06:31-07:04⏩

• Jonathan describes the situation in Bilohorivka as "pretty hot" at the moment.
• He points out that whilst the Russians have made significant gains northeast of the town, their progress has been very slow (2 km in almost 8 months).

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Bakhmut Frontline Update

🎦 07:04-07:17⏩

• Jonathan notes that there is nothing to report from Bakhmut and the frontline is static. The fighting there is described as "positional" with less activity than has been seen there previously or in other areas of the front line.

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Avdiivka Frontline Update

🎦 07:17-13:06⏩

• Jonathan reports a significant development in Avdiivka where, unlike Bakhmut, there is significant activity.
• There have been no changes to the frontline in the north or south around Vodiane and Opytne.
• Mapper Andrew Perpetua reports that the Russians have taken Salska, Ohota (the restaurant area) as they punch through the forest area along the road.
• Jonathan notes that he has spoken before about how it will be difficult for the Russians to move through the forest area and this appears to be the case as they haven't really.
• They appear to have decided that fortification of this area is too difficult and are instead trying to overwhelm the Ukrainians along the road.
• Jonathan suggests that the Ukrainians are struggling for supplies and ammunition and have conceded territory to the Russians.
• This puts the Russians in the southern areas of Avdiivka, which is concerning.
• Syriac maps shows the Russians having taken a larger swathe of territory than Andrew Perpetua. Jonathan suggests that time will tell which assessment is more accurate.
• The ISW confirms that Russian forces recently made advances south and southwest of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage from 21st January shows Russian forces advancing in the Tsarskoye Selo (restaurant) area along Soborna Street.
• Jonathan encourages caution with Syriac Maps as their assessments, whilst often correct, have sometimes been overly optimistic.
• Stupun, a spokesman, stated that Russian forces are preparing to intensify activity in the Avdiivka direction and have concentrated over 40,000 personnel in the area.
• Tarnovsky noted that Russian forces have not conducted any airstrikes in the area over the past 2 days which Jonathan notes is significant as it includes the whole frontline in that area.
• He questions why there have been no airstrikes in the area - is it because of strong Ukrainian air defences, a lack of munitions, or a lack of aircraft? Jonathan believes that if they could be carrying out airstrikes, they would, as in military terms they are wasting opportunities.
• He reasons that they are either being incredibly stupid or they don't need to drop bombs, in which case he questions what the difference will be the next time they do drop bombs. He concludes that it may be because they are unable to drop bombs due to materiel issues.
• Noel Reports provides a more cautious assessment of the situation on the ground in Avdiivka than Syriac Maps, suggesting that fighting continues in Stepove. South of Avdiivka the Russians have only managed to slightly increase their positions near the M03 highway into the private sector, but fighting is ongoing and the situation is highly fluid.
• Syriac Maps reports that the Russian army is advancing along Sportivna and Chenyshevskogo streets and that the last positions taken by Russian troops are located in a high area that allows fire control of Ukrainian positions in the southeastern forest belts.
• Syriac maps suggests that if the Russians are able to consolidate these positions, they will have fire control over the whole area. This would leave Ukrainian troops in a semi-encircled situation forcing them to withdraw from the area, which would allow the Russian army to be in a suitable position for an assault on the Khmel direction.
• Jonathan points out that Ukrainians have managed to hold onto the Zenit nuclear bunker area, which the Russians have been unable to take.
• He speculates that the Ukrainians are under a lot of pressure in southeastern Avdiivka and it will be interesting to see what their next move is - will they concede the territory to the Russians as part of an operational withdrawal or will they fight for every square meter of the town?

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Velyka Novosilka Frontline Update

🎦 13:06-13:57⏩

• Jonathan notes that mappers Andrew Perpetua and Syriac maps both report that Ukrainian forces have made gains in the Velyka Novosilka area of the Donetsk Oblast.
• Syriac maps initially showed Russian gains but then showed the Ukrainians retaking this territory. It now appears that Ukrainian troops are continuing to push the Russians back in this area.
• Jonathan observes that these gains have not been reported by the ISW.

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Robotyne Frontline Update

🎦 13:57-15:11⏩

• The ISW reports no changes to the frontline around Robotyne.
• Getty Images have released images from the Robotyne frontline today showing that Ukrainian forces have made some advances.
• They have reportedly regained previously lost positions in the forest northwest of the village.
• According to Getty, Ukrainian forces are also having success towards Kopani (north of Robotyne) and Novoprokopivka (to the south).
• Jonathan questions if this means the Russians are vulnerable in the area, having potentially redeployed troops elsewhere.

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Russian Soldier Testimony from Pisky Frontline

🎦 15:11-19:14⏩

• Jonathan describes Pisky as a location that must be brutal for both sides. The ISW reports no changes to the frontline in the area.
• A video has emerged online of Russian soldiers appealing for help.
• They identify themselves as servicemen from a separate comms platoon. They claim that since their deployment on 2nd August 2023 they have not had a single day off or any rotation.
• They are under constant shelling from Ukrainian artillery, mortars, drones (including cluster munitions and white phosphorus).
• They claim that Ukrainian drone strikes intensified following the Ukrainian breakthrough on 14th October.
• They state that they are not abandoning their positions but morale is extremely low and exhaustion is growing daily.
• They complain that their command is not authorising any leave and is failing to provide winter uniforms (which they are having to pay for themselves) or adequate supplies.
• Soldiers are reportedly having to walk 7 km to reach a shop, risking their lives as the Ukrainians fire on the road. They are also without bottled water.
• They have not been paid combat money for December and many are still on their regular salary despite the conditions.
• The video concludes with the soldiers asking Shoigu to look into their plight.
• Jonathan observes that the video highlights a number of issues including conditions, pay, rotation of troops, evacuation of wounded, and the constant shelling they are facing.
• He acknowledges that conditions are tough for the Russians in the area, but as he has said before, it isn't easy for the Ukrainians either who are essentially shooting fish in a barrel.
• Jonathan suggests that the Ukrainians must be inflicting heavy losses on the Russians given that they are choosing to maintain their positions in this area (what he refers to as a bridgehead) despite being under constant fire.
• He acknowledges that if he was a Ukrainian soldier in that position he wouldn't like it and would probably moan to journalists about it, but that this doesn't change the reality of the situation.

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Wrap up

🎦 19:14-19:32⏩

• Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
• He intends to thank his supporters who have donated via Buy Me a Coffee and PayPal in the next video.

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