Ukraine Conflict (20231023): Full Frontline Update

"If you keep throwing, you know, they've sacrificed so many bits of kit in driving around here, trying to get up the top, trying to storm this area, that if they do manage to take it, is it worth the losses they have incurred?"

Hello Team!

Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine conflict frontlines for 23rd October 2023. He explains the map legend and the different coloured pins representing changes over the last 2 days from his main map sources.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northeast frontline

• There are conflicting claims of gains by both Russia and Ukraine around Ivanovka, Yehidna and Persia-Travnevy. Syriac maps show considerable Ukrainian gains while Andrew Perpetua shows some Russian gains.
• North of Orlyansky, Ukraine advanced and cleared 0.85 sq km according to Global War Monitor.
• Syriac maps made corrections to the frontline between Perseid, Travnavy and Orlyansky. Positional battles continue without major changes.
• The situation is unclear with push and shove from both sides. Kenneth Gregg claims Ukrainians took back almost all they lost around Raiharodka but this is unconfirmed.

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Luhansk frontline

• Syriac maps made small corrections west of Zitlivka which look like Ukrainian gains but Andrew Perpetua also shows Russian gains in the last 24 hours.
• Southeast of Kreminna forest, Ukraine advanced slightly taking back 0.18 sq km according to Global War Monitor. Other mappers have not confirmed this.
• Geolocated footage indicates Russian forces advanced southwest of Persia-Travigny, southwest of Yehidne and east of Terny according to ISW.
• Russian MoD implied Russian forces have gone on defensive in Kupyansk direction and near Torska but ISW has not observed evidence of this. Jonathan disagrees and thinks Russia is pushing along the frontline in counter-attack mode.

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Bakhmut area

• There are claims of Russian successes north of Bakhmut in the Kramove area. ISW mentions repelled attacks near Kramove, Boda Nivka, Drivka, Druzhba and Vazhukivka.
• Northeast of Kramove village, Russia was filmed seizing a Ukrainian held position according to Global War Monitor.
• Deep State Map shows some Russian gains in the last 24 hours by the Bukivka reservoir which could be concerning for Ukraine.
• North of Kodymyvka, Ukraine reportedly moved across railway tracks and entrenched, setting the stage to attack the town. Pressure continues from the north and west.
• Global War Monitor says north of Klishtyivka, Ukraine crossed the railway and entrenched on the north side which Jonathan reported 2 days ago. All mappers agree the Russian defensive line is now behind the railway to varying degrees.

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Avdiivka area

• Geolocated imagery suggests marginal Russian advances southeast of Pervomaisky.
• There are conflicting claims of gains by both sides. Syriac maps shows Ukrainian gains west of Pervomaisky while ISW cites Russian mil-bloggers claiming Russian gains.
• The geolocated sources ISW provides seem to indicate where Russians were a week ago rather than new marginal advances. The footage shows Ukrainian drone drops on Russian BMPs and abandoned Russian vehicles which suggests Ukrainian gains not Russian.
• Ukraine repelled over 20 Russian attacks near Marinka, Krasnohorivka, Pobjeda, Nevelske and Novomykhailivka according to the Ukrainian General Staff, indicating increased activity along the frontline compared to previous weeks.

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Velyka Novosilka sector

Yesterday there were claims of minor Russian gains north of Priyutne but no confirmed gains for either side today according to ISW.

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Zaporizhia frontline

• The Zaporizhia front remains under an information blockade but fierce battles are known to be ongoing. Preparations continue for a Ukrainian landing on the Russian-occupied side of the Dnipro river. Three Ukrainian naval brigades are in place awaiting orders, likely to be given in winter according to Kenneth Gregg.
• This morning under heavy fog, Ukraine conducted a surprise offensive between Robotyne and Kopani. Ukrainian tanks, Bradleys and infantry are advancing amidst heavy fighting. The fog makes it nearly impossible for Russia to locate targets and direct fire while NATO thermal imaging provides an advantage.
• During the week, Ukraine made small but significant advances towards Novofederivka between Vuhledar and Novopokrovka in the north. If Ukraine captures a key Russian position on a bluff (hill) it would substantially weaken Russia's ability to defend Vuhledar.
• Yesterday Russia conducted strikes to recapture portions of the line between Robotyne and Vuhledar, reoccupying at least two small grey zone areas southwest of Vuhledar. According to Andrew Perpetua, Russia is using their best troops and proper military maneuvers which is why they are having some success.

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Kherson frontline

• Ukraine reportedly controls Kyselivka based on Russian sources a couple days ago.
• Ukraine restarted operations in Pyshchanivka with fighting inside the settlement but not much new information came out in the last 24 hours, likely due to operational security.
• Activity is claimed along a 20-25km stretch of the Dnipro river frontline from Ponyativka to Kyselivka.
• Unverified Russian claims that Ukraine put up one pontoon bridge and is trying to put up a second one. Jonathan is skeptical that pontoon bridges are practical as they would be static targets vulnerable to Russian artillery and aviation. Ferries would be better to move vehicles across as moving targets.
• The terrain is very challenging with multiple tributary rivers that would require additional bridging after crossing the Dnipro. Substantial river crossing capabilities would be needed to get vehicles, ammunition and supplies across, not just infantry.

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Wrap up

Jonathan signs off asking viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He will be back with another video doing a deeper dive on the Avdiivka area.

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