Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update, Kharkiv Offensive Update

"This is not good news for the Russians here, as according to the ISW, of course, pinch assault and all that. But they appear to have taken some heavy losses. They appear to be suboptimal strength anyway. And of course, they're not going to be crack troops, because there are no crack troops left in in this war for the for the russians..."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:15⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update for May 17, 2024, reminding those unfamiliar with the map legend to pause and review.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Russian Offensive in Kharkiv Oblast: Initial Success and Slowdown

🎦 00:15-03:57⏩

- Jonathan discusses a Washington Post article attributing the initial Russian success in Kharkiv to the jamming of Ukrainian drones and Starlink systems, leaving them "blind" on May 10th.

• He highlights the significance of this electronic warfare capability and its impact on Ukrainian defenses.
• Despite initial gains, the Russian advance seems to have slowed down.
• There is evidence of a Ukrainian counter-attack in the central area near Sturz, pushing the Russians back.
• The eastern salient near Vovchansk sees continued lateral movement by Russian forces along the border and a water feature.
• Jonathan compares assessments from different sources like Surat Maps and Andrew Perpetua, noting variations in interpretations of the gray zone.

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Analysis of Russian Gains and Ukrainian Counter Attacks

🎦 03:57-07:21⏩

• Jonathan delves into Surat Maps' assessment of the situation, acknowledging it doesn't include the most recent day's activities.
• Russian forces reportedly made advances in Liptsy and captured most of Vovchansk above the Vovcha river.
• However, Jonathan expresses skepticism about the extent of Russian control in Vovchansk based on previous instances where Surat Maps overestimated their gains.
• Ukrainian counterattacks are noted in Staritsia, pushing back against the Russian salient.
• Jonathan observes limited changes in Vovchansk according to the most recent mapping data, suggesting increased Russian difficulties in the area.

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ISW Assessment and Implications of Russian Troop Strength

🎦 07:21-12:49⏩

• Jonathan cites the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which suggests the limited Russian combat power committed to the Kharkiv offensive may already be degraded.
• He questions whether Russia is fully committing its reported 50,000 troops in the region, speculating on potential deployments in Sumy.
• Ukrainian military observer Moshe Vets is quoted, highlighting heavy losses suffered by specific Russian units and a decrease in offensive operations' tempo.
• Jonathan analyzes the implications of these observations, suggesting Russia may be facing challenges in maintaining a sustained offensive due to degraded forces and a lack of readily available reserves.
• He emphasizes that the troops currently deployed are unlikely to be Russia's best, further impacting their combat effectiveness.
• Jonathan concludes this segment by reiterating the positive implications for Ukraine, as they are effectively degrading an already suboptimal Russian force.

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Assessment of Russian Offensive Capabilities and Potential for Mobilization

🎦 12:49-19:25⏩

• Shifting focus to other sectors, Jonathan notes no changes in the northeastern axis from Kupyansk to Svatova to Kramina.
• He points out a discrepancy between Surat Maps and other sources regarding Russian control in Bilohorivka, leaning towards the latter's assessment.
• Jonathan discusses reports from Euromaidan Press about Ukrainian forces preparing for an assault in the Kramova region, highlighting the dynamic nature of the conflict even amidst Russian pressure.
• He expresses intrigue at the lack of significant changes in Chasivyar despite its strategic importance for the Russians.
• Moving south, Jonathan observes Russian gains near Avdiivka, particularly in Netaylovo, based on Surat Maps.
• He contrasts this with the relative stability of the southern frontline and the ongoing stalemate in Krinki.
• Jonathan questions the sustainability of Russia's offensive operations given the observed limitations and the need for troop rotations and reinforcements.
• He argues that the current situation necessitates a national mobilization for Russia to achieve its objectives in the Donbas.

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Analysis of Herivka and Overall Frontline Observations

🎦 19:25-21:56⏩

• Jonathan analyzes the situation in Herivka, where Surat Maps reports significant Russian gains over the past five days.
• He points out the presence of Ukrainian resistance on the town's outskirts, suggesting ongoing fighting.
• However, Jonathan notes a lack of corroboration from other mapping sources regarding the extent of Russian control in Herivka.
• He observes a general lack of significant changes across other frontline areas, as reported by the ISW.
• Jonathan ends this segment by acknowledging the challenging situation for Ukraine while remaining cautiously optimistic about their ability to withstand the offensive.

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Ukrainian Mobilization, Ammo Situation and Closing Remarks

🎦 21:56-22:29⏩

• Jonathan acknowledges Ukrainian losses in troops and equipment, particularly mechanized units and artillery, due to effective Russian countermeasures.
• He discusses the ongoing Ukrainian mobilization efforts, including the potential recruitment of convicts, to bolster their forces.
• Jonathan highlights Zelenskyy's claim of sufficient artillery ammunition supplies for the Ukrainian military.
• He ends the video by thanking viewers, asking for their perspectives on the situation, and encouraging likes, subscriptions, and shares.

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