Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
“The slow offensive, which the Russians are good at, can have not just unpleasant but critical consequences.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for this Ukraine War news update for 19/06/2024. He explains that the video will be in multiple parts.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Daily Losses - 18 June 2024
🎦 00:13-02:22⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for 18th June 2024.
- He notes that the figures are published with the usual caveats, which can be found in the video description.
- The headline figure is 1130 Russian personnel losses, which is consistent with previous days.
- 10 Russian tanks were destroyed which Jonathan suggests is significant given Russian stockpiles are running low.
- 48 Russian artillery systems were also destroyed - again, Jonathan feels this will hurt.
- On the subject of the much anticipated arrival of F-16 fighter jets, Jonathan explains that they are unlikely to be used near the frontlines, based on what he knows. There is no firm date yet for when they might arrive, with Zelensky suggesting it could be soon whilst other commentators predict Autumn.
Oryx Daily Losses - 17 & 18 June 2024
🎦 02:22-15:07⏩
Jonathan takes a look at the latest visually confirmed losses from Oryx for both 17th and 18th June, noting that these figures support the Ukrainian General Staff figures.
- He comments that the volume of equipment being destroyed will hurt Russia, especially if they continue at this rate.
- Both days show phenomenal losses for Russia, far higher than Ukraine.
- For the first time, he notes that more Western-supplied equipment is being destroyed than Russian/Soviet-era equipment. He believes that this is to be expected now given that Ukraine is likely to have depleted a lot of it's Soviet-era equipment and is now using more modern, capable equipment - but it will be interesting to monitor the ratio of Western/Soviet equipment losses going forwards.
- There has been a change in the types of vehicles being destroyed for both sides, with a noticeable increase in the destruction of Russian motorcycles. He speculates on the reasons for this shift.
Stormer HVM Destroys Russian Reconnaissance Drone
🎦 15:07-16:50⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a British-supplied Stormer High Velocity Missile system, which uses Starstreak missiles taking out a Russian reconnaissance drone. He explains that the Ukrainians need to prioritise the destruction of these drones as they are used for targeting, for example, by Iskander missiles.
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Ukrainian FPV Drone Destroys Russian Lancet Drone
🎦 16:50-16:50⏩
Jonathan talks about the footage of an FPV drone destroying a Russian Lancet loitering munition. The Ukrainian Signum unit launched the FPV drone to target a Russian reconnaissance drone which was being used to guide the Lancet. The FPV drone managed to locate and destroy the Lancet drone which was later found on the ground.
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Ukrainian Forces Use German-Supplied "Smart" 155mm BONUS Shells
🎦 16:50-18:03⏩
Jonathan reports on the use of German-supplied DM702 "smart" top attack 155mm BONUS shells, fired from a Panzer 2000 howitzer belonging to Ukraine's 43rd Separate Artillery Brigade. These shells are fired from the air, detect and target the top of enemy tanks, where the armour is weakest. They have not been seen for a while, possibly because of supply issues but it's good to see they are back in use. Jonathan also discusses Excalibur shells and DPICM cluster munitions.
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Russian Soldier Describes Ukrainian Drone Warfare Superiority
🎦 18:03-22:30⏩
Jonathan shares the account of a Russian soldier, who describes the high number of drones now being used by Ukraine.
- He agrees with the soldier's assessment that Ukraine is winning the drone war, citing anecdotal evidence from Russian sources, data from visually confirmed equipment losses, and data from open source intelligence (OSINT) which all support the view that Ukraine is using substantially more drones than Russia.
- Jonathan refers to conversations he had with military commentator Greg, who disputed Ukraine's drone superiority based on anecdotal evidence.
- He explains that it can be difficult to assess the scale of drone use in specific areas based on the experience of individuals on the ground, and that it's important to look at the bigger picture.
Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks - 19 June 2024
🎦 22:30-23:45⏩
- Ukraine reports that Russia launched 21 Shahed-136 drones overnight, of which 19 were shot down.
- One drone hit a residential area in Lviv injuring two people. Five drones in total were shot down over Lviv.
- The targets appear to be a mix of military and energy infrastructure.
Russian Forces Continue to Target Medical Facilities in Kherson
🎦 23:45-24:16⏩
Jonathan reports on further attacks on Kherson, specifically on medical facilities. The hospital was targeted with at least three Grad rockets with one hitting the ambulance garage.
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Russian Losses - Belgorod & Azov Oil Depot Fire
🎦 24:16-25:07⏩
- Three Ukrainian drones were shot down over Belgorod.
- The fire at the Azov oil depot that had been extinguished has reignited. This is a significant blow to Russia.
Ukraine Modifies Neptune Missiles for Longer Range Strikes
🎦 25:07-26:23⏩
- Jonathan reports that Ukraine has been able to modify it's Neptune missiles to strike targets deeper inside Russia, which were previously out of range. This has been confirmed by the Institute for the Study of War. This tallies with strikes on targets in Russia which are beyond the 84km range of HIMARS. It's likely that Ukraine has been using Neptune missiles to hit targets in Crimea as well.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive Operations in Luhansk and Kharkiv
🎦 26:23-27:48⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblasts, where Ukraine has been pushing back Russian forces in the north east. He speculates that this is why Russia is so keen to advance in the north as it would allow them to shell Kharkiv.
- Ukraine has increased its area of control significantly in the region.
- Zelensky has confirmed the destruction of Russian positions and launchers in Belgorod, as a result of longer range weapons being supplied by the West.
- Morale appears to be low amongst Russian troops, with reports of flooding in the Belgorod region. The wife of a soldier from the 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade has been complaining about the conditions her husband is serving under.
Russian Casualties - Training & Refusals to Fight
🎦 27:48-28:59⏩
Jonathan discusses the training and morale of Russian troops deployed to Ukraine.
- He reports that some mobilised Russian soldiers are receiving as little as five days training, whilst others get three weeks. Both timescales are inadequate.
- Over 10,000 Russian soldiers have been prosecuted for refusing to fight. Jonathan feels that this is a good sign for Ukraine as it suggests cracks are beginning to appear.
Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade Commander Mitro Kukachuk Interview
🎦 28:59-30:47⏩
Jonathan summarises an interview he watched with Mitro Kukachuk, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade who have recently been involved in fighting in Kharkiv Oblast, having previously been on the eastern front.
- The nature of warfare has changed says Kukachuk with a far greater emphasis now placed on drone warfare.
- He feels that Russia's slow offensive, whilst painful, doesn't pose a threat in the short-term.
- Kukachuk describes the fighting in Avdiivka as the most intense in the history of the war so far.
Jonathan reflects on the attrition rate being experienced by both sides and the slow pace of the Russian advance in the north. Whilst Russia is losing substantially more equipment and personnel than Ukraine, it's better able to sustain this level of loss.
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Crimea - Tourism Collapses as War Bites
🎦 30:47-33:31⏩
- Jonathan reports on the collapse of the tourist industry in occupied Crimea, reporting that there are no tourists and that even locals are avoiding places that were once popular. He shows footage of Koktebel, a popular tourist destination that now resembles a ghost town.
- The beaches which were once popular with both Ukrainians and Russians, are now heavily fortified, and Jonathan speculates that potential visitors no longer feel it is safe to visit the region, which has also been targeted by drone and missile attacks.
- Longer-term, Jonathan believes that the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, will have serious economic consequences for Crimea, resulting in agricultural failure, economic depression and an increase in partisan activity.
Russia Builds New Railway Line to Mariupol
🎦 33:31-37:32⏩
Jonathan shares information from a Telegram channel, about a new railway line being built by Russia to connect Rostov-on-Don to Mariupol, via Taganrog.
- The new railway line, which is 60km in length, has been built further away from the frontlines, to avoid Ukrainian strikes that have disrupted rail traffic.
- There were reports of a new railway line being built along the coast to Crimea, but these were incorrect. The construction was actually for a gas transportation network.
Dara Massicot on the Purge of the Russian Military Hierarchy
🎦 37:32-39:06⏩
Jonathan refers to commentary by Dara Massicot, Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, about the recent purge of the upper echelons of the Russian military.
- He explains that these changes were not a surprise, given the performance of the Russian military in Ukraine.
- Putin has appointed his niece, Anna Tsivileva to a senior position within the Ministry of Defence. She will be responsible for social benefits, an important role.
- Jonathan believes that these changes are part of an attempt by the Kremlin to modernise the Russian MOD, improve efficiency, and boost rearmament. He predicts pushback from the old guard.
Freedom of The Press Under Threat in Ukraine
🎦 39:06-40:34⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about the increasing pressure being placed on journalists by the Ukrainian government.
- He reports that journalists from Ukraineform, the state news agency, were sent a list of "undesirable" people they shouldn't quote in their articles.
- He reflects on how war time inevitably leads to a clampdown on transparency and that Ukraine is no exception. However, he believes that this trend is worrying.
Wrap Up
🎦 40:34-40:40⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He says goodbye and signs off.
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