Ukraine War Update NEWS
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
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"Putin kills anyone that's a threat to him, like a political threat to him."
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologizes for the video being late due to taking his kid to sports practice and getting a COVID and flu injection. He jokes that there are "all sorts of stuff floating around my body, nice".
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Ramzan Kadyrov Health Rumors
- Rumors intensified on Russian Telegram channels that Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov died in a Moscow hospital after failing to wake from a coma. If true, this could lead to chaos in Chechnya and a possible third Chechen war against Russia.
- However, a video emerged on Kadyrov's Telegram channel showing him walking in the rain and sounding unwell. The video's authenticity and date are unknown, so it's unclear if it proves he is still alive or was recorded earlier.
Frontline Updates - Tokmak
According to British intelligence, Russia is strengthening defensive positions in occupied Tokmak, installing roadblocks and anti-tank fortifications. Tokmak is a key logistical hub in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As Ukraine's counteroffensive becomes slow and attritional, Russia has more opportunity to fortify areas behind the frontline.
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Russian Troop Concentration in Bakhmut
The Ukrainian Eastern Grouping press officer Yevlash claims Russia has concentrated 52,000 troops, 274 tanks, over 1,000 armored fighting vehicles, 150 artillery systems, and more than 120 MLRS in the Bakhmut area. Jonathan questions the purpose of announcing these numbers publicly and whether it's an attempt to scare and influence Ukrainian decision-making. He notes previous exaggerated claims of 100,000+ Russian soldiers which likely referred to total military personnel in the wider region, not frontline troops.
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Frontline Updates - North of Bakhmut
- According to Def Mon, minor Ukrainian gains were geolocated south of Rostov-Livka, but Russians may have advanced in the Yahidne area near Berkhivka, north of Bakhmut.
- Ukrainians previously reached Berkhivka in their counteroffensive but were pushed back, likely realizing it was too costly to hold. They shifted focus to more successful areas like Ozaryanivka.
- Jonathan notes an increase in videos of Russian POWs lately, suggesting significant losses for Russia.
Frontline Updates - Klishchiivka
- South of Bakhmut, Ukraine liberated Andriivka and advanced around Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka according to Def Mon.
- Mapping from Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak shows Ukrainian gains north and east of Klishchiivka.
- A post claiming Klishchiivka was fully liberated was later removed. Flag videos emerged purportedly from the town center but are not definitive proof of complete control.
- Russians were pushed back from a salient northwest of the town. Shelling indicates they still hold the eastern part of Klishchiivka along the railway.
- Jonathan believes there will be fierce fighting over the area between the railway and Klishchiivka.
Frontline Updates - Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka
- Minor Ukrainian advances were reported south of Marinka towards Novomykhailivka.
- East of Vuhledar, a video showed a single Russian soldier repelling a Ukrainian assault that ran out of grenades, which Russian channels will likely highlight.
- Some gains were claimed northwest of Staromaiorske and around Neskuchne, but with much less information coming out compared to weeks ago.
Frontline Updates - Robotyne
- Andrew Perpetua reported Ukrainian forces moving south and west from Robotyne towards Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
- Ukrainians are trying to roll up the Russian trench line south towards Verbove, with some success but slow going.
- They are also attacking east towards Mala Tokmachka rather than from the north after struggling there.
- A soldier's account described fierce fighting on the outskirts of Novoprokopivka and Verbove, with Russia reinforcing key areas with airborne troops. Russians are retreating from non-essential positions to preserve manpower but still control the heights along the frontline.
Military Aid to Ukraine
- Four Republican senators, including Tom Cotton, are asking President Biden to immediately transfer ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine. Jonathan speculates they may already be in Ukraine and an announcement will coincide with their battlefield use.
- Ukraine received 3D printers from the US capable of quickly making parts for military equipment, which the US Assistant Secretary of Defense called a "game changer".
- According to Andrew Perpetua, Ukraine has a severe shortage of mortar ammunition, with only around 300,000 rounds per month versus a need for 1-10 million. He believes addressing this would have a bigger impact than most other weapons.
- Ukraine's drone production is expected to increase 120-140 times in 2023 compared to 2022 according to their Digital Transformation Minister. Jonathan's friend who attended a major defense expo in London said drones with expansive new capabilities were the dominant theme from global militaries and industry.
Geopolitics
- Retired Australian general Mick Ryan shared a Washington Post quote arguing Putin keeps the incompetent Shoigu as Defense Minister because a more talented replacement who succeeded in the war would threaten Putin's power. Jonathan agrees Putin eliminates political threats.
- According to Forbes, Russia spent $167 billion on the Ukraine war over 18 months, with costs like $51 billion for the military, $47 billion for dead and wounded soldiers, $35 billion for salaries, and $34 billion for lost equipment. Sanctions hinder their ability to replace equipment losses. About one in three rubles of the Russian budget goes to the war.
- North Macedonia expelled three more Russian diplomats (11 total). Lithuania called for the EU to allocate Ukraine at least €18 billion per year in the new budget.
- Germany and Poland will ban/confiscate cars with Russian license plates, joining the Baltic states and Finland.
Wrap up
Jonathan invites viewers to join him at 6:30pm UK time for a live discussion with Rick the Ukrainian, who has done fundraising and translated interviews with Russian POWs. He jokes the video went on too long because he spent a lot of time on frontline updates, and signs off with "take care, speak soon".
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