Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"It's almost like these Ukrainian fighters are sacrificial lambs um being used to bait in the Russians so they can hit the Russians with huge amounts of particularly drone uh drones fpv drones and whatnot"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:22⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He reminds people that the key to the maps he uses in the videos is at the start of the video and to pause if you need to familiarise yourself. Jonathan is using the latest map updated by JR.

📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northeastern Front - 3 weeks of Stalemate

🎦 00:23-02:19⏩

Jonathan begins by looking at the Northeast of the country. He notes that there have been no changes to report in this area for around three weeks - the line running from Kupyansk-Svatove in the North down to Crimea in the South is static. Jonathan reflects on how remarkable it is that this line has remained unchanged for so long. He feels that whilst the Russians are making grinding advances in other parts of the country, this lack of activity on what would appear to be a key front is puzzling. He speculates that this could either be because the Russians are desperately short of equipment and men, or that they are regrouping and waiting for the right time to launch a major offensive in this sector. He feels this would be a strategically good time to strike, before the Ukrainians receive a new batch of military aid from the West. Jonathan points out that there has been minimal movement on the Southern axis too - a tiny amount in Robotyne, but the line around Krynky remains unchanged. He invites viewers to share their thoughts in the comments.

Kreminna: Ukrainian Counter Attack?

🎦 02:20-04:39⏩

Jonathan speculates that areas where the Russians appear to be concentrating their efforts include Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka and Novomykolaivka, although he does sound a note of caution, saying that the Russians seem to have stalled in Novomykolaivka, despite committing significant resources. He moves on to look at an area South of Kreminna, close to Bilohorivka that is seeing heavy fighting. The Ukrainians have been reporting heavy fighting around the lip of a quarry in this area. Jonathan analyses the topography of the area using JR's map. He notes how the quarry itself is on a flat area of land, but is surrounded on two sides by raised mounds - one to the West and one to the East, which would make any attempt to advance challenging. The Russians appear to be focusing their efforts on advancing up the Eastern mound. Reporting from Ukraine, a Telegram channel that Jonathan regularly refers to in his videos has been concentrating on this area and has indicated that the Russians have made some progress up this embankment, but the Ukrainians, who are positioned above them are able to fire down on them. They are predicting that a Ukranian counter attack in this area is imminent. Jonathan shows footage from Reporting From Ukraine which illustrates this with graphics.

Chasiv Yar - Russian Advances

🎦 04:40-07:53⏩

Moving South from Bilohorivka past Siversk towards Bakhmut, Jonathan examines the situation around Chasiv Yar. The Russians are making some gains in this area, moving into the outskirts of the town. Jonathan mentions in passing that there is some disagreement about whether or not this area should be referred to as Chasiv Yar or not. The Russians don't call it Chasiv Yar and opinion is divided amongst Ukrainians - some do and some call the buildings to the West of the canal that runs through the area Chasiv Yar. Jonathan feels this is a moot point, but prefers to call the area the Russians are making gains in the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. The mappers Jonathan uses are also in disagreement as to whether or not the Russians have advanced as far as the first roads into Chasiv Yar. When Jonathan spoke to military analyst Greg Terry yesterday he said that his contacts on the ground confirmed that they had, but the mappers aren't so sure. There have also been reports of some Russian advances to the South in the Botanical Nature reserve. Jonathan notes that different mappers often have different interpretations of events on the ground. This could be because some are catching up, whilst others are reporting in real time. He thinks it's fair to say that the Russians have made some gains North of the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and that the situation is difficult for the Ukrainians. He goes on to mention an update from The Institute for the Study of War, who are reporting advances by the Ukrainians in the areas around Kreminna and Novomykolaivka. Jonathan suspects that these are likely to be around the Toriske area. He feels the situation around Chasiv Yar is tricky for the Ukrainians and doesn't look good for them. However, both Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov have said that reinforcements are being sent to this sector, so it may be that the Ukrainians intend to put up more of a fight in this area. It could be that they intend to cede the territory to the East of the canal and concentrate on defending the area to the West. Jonathan draws parallels with the battle for Bakhmut. Initially the Ukrainians fought to keep the Russians out of the city for as long as possible but when they finally got in, the Bakhmutivka River acted as a natural barrier for a while. Once they were able to cross the river in one place the situation for the Ukrainians became untenable.

Avdiivka - Novomykolaivka: Russian Advances

🎦 07:53-09:52⏩

Jonathan now turns his attention to Avdiivka. He mentions that yesterday Suriyat Maps, one of the mapping sources he uses was late in updating their map. The information they provided showed Russian advances but as these were late, were included in today's analysis. The Russian advances have been in the area North of Berdychi, by the railway line. All the mappers are in agreement that there have been advances by the Russians in this area. The Russians are pushing on the settlement of Novokalynove from the South and have made advances in this area in recent days. They are now pushing North of Berdychi and Jonathan is concerned that if they are able to get around the source of the Berdychi River they will be able to attack from the North. He indicates the area on the map, pointing out the Russians appear to be attempting to do this and are advancing on Ocheretyne. He describes Ocheretyne as being "fairly sizable" compared to some of the smaller villages that have been captured in recent times. Jonathan reminds viewers that there is another Novobakhmutivka, highlighting the challenges of Ukrainian geography, before moving on to look at Russian gains around Semenivka, including the area between Semenivka and Spirne, to the East of the Derna River. Suriyat maps show that the Russians have filled in the gaps between these two settlements, pushing the Ukrainians back across the river, and that the Russians have also made some gains in Semenivka itself, which is West of the river. Jonathan expresses concern that this means the Russians have compromised the defensive line provided by the river, which is worrying for the Ukrainians. Moving South, past Pervomaiske, there is no change to report. The situation around Novomykolaivka has also been static, which is good news for the Ukrainians.

Krasnohorivka - Novomykolaivka: Renewed Russian Assault

🎦 09:52-11:25⏩

Jonathan now takes a look at the situation around Krasnohorivka, describing it as a "mixed bag". The pins he has added to the map in this area actually represent two days worth of movement, which he clarifies after initially getting confused. There was a small Russian gain yesterday in the North, but today the map shows a gain into the settlement of Krasnohorivka itself. This is worrying for the Ukrainians. Suriyat Maps reported almost 24 hours ago that the Russians had captured new dachas on the South Eastern edge of the settlement. There has been a slight readjustment further South with what appears to show Ukrainian gains, however Jonathan thinks that it's likely this is just the mappers updating their maps, rather than a genuine Ukrainian push as it is only in one small area, rather than across the front. Jonathan notes that after a couple of weeks of stalemate, there appears to be a renewed Russian push in the area around Krasnohorivka. This is a concern as it's an area where the Ukrainian line had appeared to be fairly solid. Turning his attention to Novomykolaivka Jonathan highlights Russian gains to the North of the settlement, where the Russians are pushing through. These were reported in a tweet yesterday and Jonathan has added pins to today's map to illustrate them. Jonathan believes that whilst the Russians have made some gains here, the going will be tough for them. They have thrown a lot of men and equipment at taking Novomykolaivka and sustained heavy losses in the process.

Southern Front and Krynky - Static Line but Significant Update

🎦 11:25-15:02⏩

Jonathan reports that the Southern frontline is static and that none of the mappers are reporting any activity around Krynky. However, he returns to the Institute for the Study of War's earlier report, highlighting their comment about Ukrainian advances in and around Novomykolaivka and that a Ukrainian advance South West of Donetsk has been recorded. Returning to the Southern Front, Jonathan wants to provide some context around Robotyne. This was the area that saw the Ukrainians concentrate their counter offensive, despite it being heavily fortified. He shows drone footage of the village, which has been completely destroyed. It is hard to make out what the buildings would once have looked like. Jonathan reflects on the damage that war inflicts on both the landscape and people. He wonders whether after the war communities like this will simply be abandoned and a new village constructed a couple of kilometres away. He feels this is a question that will have to wait until after the war is over. He signs off this part of his update by expressing his hope that the outcome will favour the Ukrainians and not the Russians.

Krynky: Russian Military Blogger Reports Ukrainian Advance

🎦 15:02-18:11⏩

Jonathan reports that Russian Military Blogger Romanov has been talking about Krynky - an area where the Ukrainians are clinging on. Jonathan explains that this part of the front is unusual, as the Ukrainians don't fully control it - it's more of a grey zone that seems to shift as the Russians advance. It seems as if this is happening again. Romanov has confirmed that the Ukrainians have expanded the bridgehead at Krynky by 500 metres to the West. What is interesting about this is that, according to Romanov, the Russians simply withdrew, without putting up a fight. He also claims that the Russians have made a small advance in the centre of the village. Jonathan thinks that this is plausible, as there have been geolocated reports of Russian troops in this area. He speculates as to why the Ukrainians would be making advances in this area. It could be that they are using their presence in the village as a way of drawing the Russians in, so that they can then target them, inflicting heavy casualties, particularly through the use of drone attacks. Jonathan struggles to understand what the Ukrainians are hoping to achieve here from an offensive perspective. Are they still trying to gain ground in this area? Or are they being forced to advance in order to reach more heavily defended positions? It's almost as if they are being used as bait, to draw in the Russians. This is something that has been suggested by other military analysts, so isn't a completely implausible scenario. Jonathan doesn't think that the Ukrainians would use the bridgehead as a launchpad for a counter offensive, particularly as they have pulled three of their four Marine Units out of the area. He invites viewers to share their thoughts, asks them to like the video, subscribe to his channel and share it.

Wrap Up

🎦 18:11-18:31⏩

Jonathan closes out today's video by reminding people to check out his interview with Sean Pinner, a British Army veteran who has been fighting in Ukraine since 2018 and was captured by the Russians last year, before being released as part of a prisoner exchange. He describes the interview as "absolutely fascinating" and well worth a watch.