Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"My brain is melting, just melting. I need to get on a treadmill."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Frontline Update for 11th April 2024.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Jonathan's Frontline Update Preamble: Mapping, Defensive Lines and Grey Zones
🎦 00:30-01:41⏩
Jonathan gives credit to JR for the mapping. He reminds viewers that when there aren't any pins on the map, the lines shown indicate Russian defensive lines and that lack of pins on the map doesn't necessarily mean there is no activity. He refers to these as "grey zones" - areas where both sides are present and that these zones may be increasing in size, indicating Russian advances or tentative attacks.
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Northeastern Frontline Update: Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna
🎦 01:41-01:50⏩
Jonathan reports no change along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline, describing the situation as "stabilized", which is good news for Ukraine.
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Kreminna Frontline Update: Serebryansky Forest to Verkhn'okam'yanka
🎦 01:50-03:20⏩
South of Kreminna near the Serebryansky Forest, which Jonathan notes has suffered significant defoliation, Russian forces have made small gains to the Northwest of Verkhn'okam'yanka, taking control of part of the trench system to the East of the town. Jonathan points out this is worth paying attention to as the area has seen little activity recently and could be part of an attempt to encircle Bilohorivka. He states that whilst Russian forces are making grinding gains in the direction of Vesele and Berestove, it is a long way from there to Sversk with challenging topography.
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Donetsk Oblast Frontline Update: Spirne, Blahodatne, Ivaniske and Chasiv Yar
🎦 03:20-03:58⏩
Jonathan notes no confirmed gains in the areas South of Donetsk around Spirne, Blahodatne and Ivaniske and that the situation in Chasiv Yar remains stable. He notes that this is good news given the volatility in this area recently and points out the differences in opinions between DeepState Maps and Suriant Maps, especially regarding the situation in Ivaniske and how Andriy Perpetua's mapping differs from both. He reminds viewers why he likes to show various maps - to provide an average view.
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Bakhmut Frontline Update: Ukrainian Guided Bomb Usage
🎦 04:00-04:55⏩
Jonathan reports on unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces are using their own guided glide bombs in the Bakhmut area, specifically targeting Russian positions in Ivanovske. He reflects that whilst it's good to see the Ukrainians using this type of munition which Russia has used so effectively during the war, Ukraine won't have parity unless they receive more airframes and munitions from their allies.
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Donetsk Oblast Frontline Update: Avdiivka and Prokrosk
🎦 04:55-05:50⏩
Moving south to the Avdiivka area, Jonathan notes that the axis of advance is increasingly being labelled the Prokrosk direction. He explains that this is due to the town of Prokrosk, situated approximately 35km to the Northwest of Avdiivka, being the direction the Russians are pushing.
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Donetsk Oblast Frontline Update: Tonenke, Umanske and the Derna River
🎦 05:50-06:03⏩
Jonathan highlights Russian gains, according to Suriant Maps, to the West of Tonenke and South of Umanske. Suriant Maps states that the Russian army made advances south of the Derna River, reaching the outskirts of the settlement.
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Donetsk Oblast Frontline Update: Novo Mykhailivka
🎦 06:03-06:08⏩
In the Novo Mykhailivka area, DeepState Maps show a small change with Russian advances into the middle of the city, moving towards the positions shown on Suriant maps.
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Donetsk Oblast Frontline Update: Pervomaiske
🎦 06:08-07:37⏩
Jonathan discusses a report by No Reports from the previous day (10th April 2024), which stated that Ukrainian forces were still fighting in the centre of Pervomaiske. This is controversial, as all three maps (DeepState, Suriant and Perpetua) show Russian control of at least part of the settlement. Jonathan notes that Pervomaiske appears to be a long, thin settlement and speculates that fighting could be ongoing in the Southern part of the town, with Ukrainian forces potentially able to strike North into the settlement. He concludes by saying that this should be treated with caution, but suggests that the situation in Pervomaiske may not be fully resolved in Russia's favour.
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Southern Frontline Update: Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar, Robotyne and Huliaipole
🎦 07:37-08:08⏩
Due to time constraints, Jonathan does not provide a detailed summary of the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) reports. He states that there have been no reported changes to the frontlines near Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar, Robotyne or Huliaipole, based on the various maps he uses.
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Jonathan's Concerns: The Impact of Russian Missile Barrages on Ukrainian Infrastructure
🎦 08:08-09:31⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the nightly missile barrages being carried out by Russia, particularly their use of Kinzhal missiles against critical infrastructure in cities such as Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kyiv and Lviv. He notes that although Kyiv has some of the best air defence coverage in the world, the recent strike on a power station on the Southern outskirts of the city, reportedly by at least one Kinzhal missile, demonstrates that no location in Ukraine is completely safe. He worries that if Russia can replicate the level of success they had on the night of 10th April on a regular basis, Ukraine's power grid will soon collapse. He points out that shutting down the country's nuclear power stations as a result of instability in the energy grid will have a significant impact across Ukraine.
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Jonathan's War Forecast: Grinding Russian Advances and Limited Breakthrough Potential
🎦 09:31-10:20⏩
Jonathan believes that Russia will continue to make small gains, albeit at a high cost. He does not foresee a major breakthrough like the Kharkiv counteroffensive witnessed in 2022, concluding that the widespread use of drones by both sides, combined with extensive fortifications, make such large-scale operations unlikely.
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Wrap Up
🎦 10:20-10:22⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and says goodbye.
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