Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - Drone Investment

"I've seen a Bradley be hit by over 10 drones, two mines, two tank hits, and around five ATGMs or RPGs, and drive away still functioning."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War Update NEWS video for 19/01/2025. He starts by referencing an article in the New York Times revealing that the US secretly invested $1.5bn in Ukrainian drone production in September 2024.

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US Investment in Ukrainian Drone Production

🎦 00:16-02:03⏩
Jonathan explains how the US investment, which follows the “Danish Model”, will help Ukraine develop its own Military Industrial Complex which is critical to allow the country to produce the equipment it needs for its defence rather than relying on other countries. This has the benefit of creating jobs and tax revenue, as well as reducing reliance on foreign supply chains. Jonathan speculates about the level of input foreign nations have in assisting Ukraine with developing its drone (and missile) technology, which may give away a competitive advantage. However, he acknowledges that in the case of Electronic Warfare, the US has been reluctant to share knowledge and equipment. Ukraine desperately needs support with Electronic Warfare capability. Jonathan believes that the US and other nations will benefit from the knowledge gained in Ukraine, highlighting the example of maritime drones which are credited with destroying 25% of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The investment will have been seen as mutually beneficial by the US and Ukraine.

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Effectiveness of Ukrainian Drones

🎦 05:51-06:15⏩
Jonathan cites the Kyiv Independent which reports that these efforts intensified ahead of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive as a response to Russia’s extensive drone use. Ukrainian drones are now considered more deadly. By the end of 2024, Ukraine had reportedly delivered over 200,000 domestically produced drones to frontline units, according to Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Ruslan Umerov.

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International Drone Capability Coalition

🎦 06:15-09:35⏩
The UK will send 30,000 new drones to Ukraine. The UK government has placed contracts worth £45m as part of the International Drone Capability Coalition (which includes Latvia, the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden). The contracts were announced at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group held at Ramstein Air Base on 9th January 2025. The UK’s total contribution to the fund is £15m and the total raised by the fund from the UK and partners is around £73m. The Defence Secretary also confirmed a UK-administered international fund totalling over £1.3bn (of which the UK has contributed £500m) that is used to place contracts to procure equipment for Ukraine. The UK’s Defence Secretary outlined the UK Ministry of Defence’s plans for Ukraine’s defence in 2025 to 50 allies at a meeting with Ukraine’s Defence Minister in December 2024. Jonathan observes that drones are one of the main features of this war.

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Benjamin Tallis on European Defence

🎦 09:35-14:17⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent trip to Vilnius in the Baltics by Benjamin Tallis (author of “Turning Points”). Tallis believes that whilst transatlantic messaging on Ukraine is not encouraging, it is not all bad. He observed that Europe remains divided on the issue of Ukrainian victory, security guarantees and European Security. Jonathan believes that Europe needs to commit more money to European Security (which is in line with Donald Trump’s isolationist stance) and the US needs to accept that Europe needs to build its own defence and technology industrial base. This will mean that the EU will rely less on the US, impacting the US economy negatively. However, as the EU develops its capabilities it will be able to compete with the US for defence contracts. Jonathan uses the example of the SAMP/T system (being jointly developed by France and Italy) which will compete directly with the US Patriot system. He highlights that this is not a zero-sum game in the short term, but in the longer term it means that nations will look to procure weapons from Europe rather than the US.

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Slovenia Sends Demining Vehicles to Ukraine

🎦 14:17-14:32⏩
Slovenia has sent COSAC PML Pyrotechnic vehicles to support Ukraine’s State Emergency Service. They are designed to transport personnel and equipment, and to support demining work.

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German Political Spat over Ukraine Aid

🎦 14:32-19:39⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent political spat in Germany over €3bn of aid for Ukraine. A photo showing Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, (Green Party) walking away from Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) at a government meeting has gone viral. It is reported that Baerbock refused to be photographed with Scholz after he blocked a €3bn aid package for Ukraine. Baerbock and Germany’s Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, support sending the aid but Scholz wants to consider the upcoming elections in February and the threat from the right-wing AFD party, which is opposed to sending weapons to Ukraine. Jonathan references a Twitter post (which he saw on BlueSky) from “German Leader Ukraine”, outlining the reasons for the spat. The German government no longer has a majority and the parties are gearing up for an election. Baerbock and Pistorius want to secure the additional €3bn aid budget before the election, arguing that the money can be found, for example by using an overestimation in the 2025 Bundeswehr budget. The Budget Committee of the Bundestag is due to meet on 29th January to discuss the matter. If Scholz does not change his position, new aid will not be agreed until after the election (which takes place in February 2025) which could mean losing almost half a year.

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International Legion: Infantry Fighting Vehicle Performance in Ukraine

🎦 19:39-21:35⏩
Jonathan reads and responds to a comment from “Jante Politico”, a member of the International Legion fighting in Ukraine, about the performance of various Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs). The comment states that the US Bradley IFV has performed best, followed by the Swedish CV90, the German Marder and in last place the ASCOD family of vehicles (also known as “KTO”). In his reply to a user comment, Jante Politico states that whilst these are just his opinions based on his experiences fighting in Ukraine, he has had a lot of experience with IFVs. He has witnessed Bradleys being hit by drones, mines, tank shells and ATGMs but still be able to drive away. His main concern is that crews are abandoning their vehicles rather than calling in airstrikes on them, which could mean that they could be captured by Russian forces.

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Importance of Long-Range Strikes and Destroying Abandoned Equipment

🎦 21:35-22:53⏩
Jonathan agrees with Jante Politico that one of the main issues facing both sides is the challenge of abandoned equipment which could be captured and used by enemy forces. He highlights that this is in contrast to Ukrainian forces, who will attempt to destroy abandoned equipment using drones to prevent capture. He notes that the capture of a Bradley would be a high value haul for the Russians. Jonathan cites comments by Ukrainian MP, Fedor Venislavsky, who believes that simply increasing the size of the armed forces will not be enough to win the war, and that Ukraine needs to conduct long-range strikes against targets in Russia in order to degrade their capabilities, without risking Ukrainian troops. He argues that Ukraine needs to adopt a strategy that incorporates both approaches.

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Royal Navy Predicts Autonomous Vessels by 2045

🎦 22:53-24:09⏩
Jonathan discusses a report about comments made by the head of the Royal Navy, Admiral Sir Ben Key, who, in a defence review, has stated that he does not believe that the Royal Navy needs more sailors as in 20-30 years, naval vessels will be autonomous. Jonathan is sceptical that vessels such as destroyers and frigates will be fully autonomous by 2045, although he accepts that a different type of naval personnel will be required in the future.

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Impact of War on Russian Economy

🎦 24:09-25:09⏩
Jonathan reads a tweet from Evgeny Istrebin, highlighting the impact of the war on regional budgets in Russia. Cafe and Restaurant owners in the Saratov region (home to the Engels airbase which has been subject to drone attacks) are being asked to pay a percentage of their turnover to the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection to pay soldiers’ salaries. Jonathan acknowledges that this could lead to social discontent in Russia but points out that the Russian population seems to be willing to accept these hardships.

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New Zealand Appreciation Day

🎦 25:09-27:40⏩
Jonathan declares a “New Zealand is Awesome Day” and shares a story about his time living and working in Paihia in the Bay of Islands and Wellington. He talks about how he didn’t wear shoes for 6 months and when he finally had to wear them again for a job he got at the New Zealand Qualifications Authority, the skin came off his feet because it was so thick. He reads comments from some of his New Zealand viewers, including one whose friend now watches his videos everyday (much to the amusement of Jonathan, who replies “So do I!”) and another from a viewer who thanked Jonathan and his family for all his hard work. Jonathan jokes about how forgiving his partner is.

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Wrap up

🎦 27:40-27:45⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers and signs off.

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