Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If the US pulls out from Ukraine, Ukraine are buggered."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:50⏩
Jonathan expresses his anger over recent events, particularly a statement attributed to Viktor Orban suggesting the US will withdraw from the war in Ukraine after Trump takes office. Jonathan strongly criticises Orban and questions the implications of Trump's claim to end the war within 24 hours, highlighting the ongoing Russian bombing campaign.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Equipment and Personnel Losses (General Staff Update)
🎦 00:50-03:28⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest Ukrainian General Staff report, noting significant Russian losses: 1,580 personnel, nine tanks, 49 armoured personnel carriers, and 32 artillery systems. He highlights the high number of vehicle and fuel tank losses (84), suggesting Russia's use of non-typical combat assets for attacks.
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Ukrainian Equipment Losses (Andrew Perpetua)
🎦 03:28-04:07⏩
Shifting focus to Ukrainian losses, Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's data, listing losses including artillery pieces (M777, M109, D-30), tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (Bradleys, Marder), Humvees, and MRAPs (Max Pro, QRP, Oshkosh, Wolfhound).
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Drone Warfare and its Impact
🎦 04:07-06:30⏩
Jonathan observes the significant role of drones in Ukrainian equipment losses, particularly Vandal, FPV, and Lancet drones. He presents visual evidence, analysing footage of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles and emphasising the prevalence of drone attacks.
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Russian Equipment Losses (Andrew Perpetua)
🎦 06:30-07:45⏩
Jonathan examines Russian equipment losses based on Andrew Perpetua's list. He points out losses in electronic warfare, surveillance and communication equipment, artillery systems (including two TOS-1A thermobaric systems), tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (BTR-82s, BMP-1s and 3s), AFVs, and APCs.
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Kursk Region: Shifting Loss Dynamics
🎦 07:45-08:12⏩
Jonathan delves into the loss dynamics in the Kursk region using data from Nausio, a source tracking visually confirmed losses. Initially, Ukraine faced higher losses, but recent data indicates a shift with Russia experiencing greater losses (43 compared to Ukraine's 21). Jonathan attributes this to potential Russian counterattacks.
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Loss of Russian Ka-52 Helicopter
🎦 08:12-08:39⏩
Citing reports from "Fighter Bomber", a Russian Airspace Forces-affiliated channel, Jonathan reveals the loss of a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter ("Alligator"). He confirms the deaths of the pilot and commander.
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Footage of Destroyed Russian Convoy
🎦 08:39-10:42⏩
Jonathan shows footage shared by "No Reports" depicting a destroyed Russian military convoy filmed by Russian soldiers. He highlights the extensive damage and burning vehicles, offering a glimpse into the scale of Russian losses. Jonathan remarks on the irony of the soldiers using a civilian vehicle for filming while a golf buggy overtakes them.
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Death of Russian Major General Pavel Klimenko
🎦 10:42-11:15⏩
Jonathan reports the death of Russian Major General Pavel Klimenko, commander of the 5th Motor Rifle Brigade. While the cause of death remains unknown, Jonathan acknowledges it as a significant loss for the Russian forces.
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Fire on Russian Frigate Admiral Gorshkov
🎦 11:15-12:25⏩
Jonathan shares footage of a fire aboard the Russian frigate "Admiral Gorshkov" in southern Cyprus on November 3rd. He clarifies that the incident is unrelated to the war but acknowledges its significance. Viewer comments suggest potential causes, including engine issues or poor-quality diesel.
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Humorous Misidentification of a Destroyed Tank
🎦 12:25-14:11⏩
Jonathan shares a humorous anecdote involving Russian soldiers who misidentified a destroyed T-90 tank as a Leopard tank. He explains the concept of Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) and how the soldiers mistook bricks for ERA modules.
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Russian Distant Strikes and Ukrainian Air Defence
🎦 14:11-16:03⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent wave of Russian drone and missile strikes, noting a decrease in missile usage compared to previous periods. He raises concerns about a ballistic missile strike in Kyiv and analyses Ukrainian air defence statistics, highlighting their success in intercepting a significant number of drones and missiles.
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Russian Strikes on Kharkiv and Civilian Casualties
🎦 16:03-17:22⏩
Jonathan details the aftermath of Russian strikes on Kharkiv, reporting 25 casualties, including a three-month-old baby. He condemns the targeting of civilian infrastructure, particularly historical and residential buildings, and emphasises the devastating impact on the city and its residents.
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Russian Missile Attack on Kyiv and Casualties
🎦 17:22-18:02⏩
Jonathan reports a Russian missile attack on Kyiv, the first since early October. He shares information about casualties (nine dead and 42 injured), including the tragic deaths of a mother and her one-and-a-half-year-old son. Jonathan expresses his outrage and questions the purpose of such attacks.
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Russian Airstrike on Zaporizhia Hospital
🎦 18:02-18:22⏩
Jonathan strongly condemns a Russian airstrike on a hospital in Zaporizhia, which resulted in five injuries. He criticises the deliberate targeting of a civilian medical facility.
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Zelensky's Call for Weapons and Jonathan's Frustration
🎦 18:22-19:21⏩
Jonathan highlights Zelensky's impassioned plea for more weapons, emphasising Ukraine's funding and determination to fight back. He shares his own anger and frustration, advocating for Ukraine to target Russian oil refineries to cripple their economy. Jonathan believes this is crucial, especially if the US withdraws support and lifts sanctions.
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Potential US Withdrawal and European Response
🎦 19:21-21:25⏩
Jonathan speculates about the potential consequences of a US withdrawal, including the lifting of sanctions on Russia. He expresses hope that Europe will step up its support for Ukraine, providing necessary weapons and resources.
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Political Situation in Germany and Support for Ukraine
Political Situation in Germany and Support for Ukraine
🎦 21:25-22:21⏩
Jonathan discusses the political turmoil within the German government regarding aid to Ukraine, particularly concerning the "Taurus" missile system. He mentions the differing stances of the coalition parties and the opposition, hoping that Germany will ultimately choose to support Ukraine fully. He observes that ideological stances often change when politicians transition from opposition to being in government.
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Ukrainian Drone Attack on Saratov Oil Refinery
🎦 22:21-23:13⏩
Jonathan reports the resumption of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure after a month-long hiatus. Specifically, he highlights the overnight attack on the Saratov cracking refinery. He commends this strategic move, particularly in light of potential US disengagement.
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Potential Resumption of Flights at Ukrainian Airports
🎦 23:13-25:43⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential for resuming flights at Ukrainian airports, citing a projection of late January 2025. He ponders Zelensky's insistence on prioritising Boryspil International Airport near Kyiv over the seemingly safer Lviv Airport in western Ukraine. He analyses the risks associated with reopening airports, emphasizing the need for robust air defence systems.
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Wrap up
🎦 25:43-27:19⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers and asking them to like, subscribe, and share. He announces his upcoming weekend trip to meet old Ultimate Frisbee teammates, acknowledging potential disruptions in his usual upload schedule. He assures viewers that his colleague, Benny Pye, will be managing the release of shorts during his absence.
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