Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It's not something of a lottery to fly internally in Russia at the moment. It's not something I would be signing up to do in a hurry."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:18⏩
Jonathan kicks off the update with a warm "Hello team!". He's sporting a Vancouver Canucks NHL top, a gift from viewer Michael, and jokes about relocating to Canada. He shares a relatable anecdote about falling over due to his multiple sclerosis, highlighting the challenges he faces.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Figures - 6th December 2023
🎦 01:18-02:04⏩
Jonathan delves into the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day, 6th December 2023. He notes that while personnel losses dipped below 1,000, the figure remains significant. The loss of eight tanks highlights Russian struggles, and 26 armoured personnel vehicles lost suggests ongoing Russian offensives. Artillery losses were lower than on other days, but still impactful. 30 vehicles and fuel tanks lost represent a blow to Russian logistics.
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Oryx - Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 02:04-05:26⏩
Jonathan analyses visually confirmed equipment losses using data from Oryx. He notes a near 3:1 loss ratio favouring Russia, but highlights the need for a better ratio for Ukraine. Ukrainian losses included communications equipment, boats, a few older tanks and civilian SUVs (likely repurposed for military use). Russian losses encompassed surveillance equipment, an air defence system, artillery pieces, older tanks, BMP infantry fighting vehicles (notably, no BMP-1s, supporting previous speculation about their dwindling numbers), trucks and a significant number of Lancet loitering munitions. The loss of so many Lancet drones in a single video suggests a successful counter-offensive effort by Ukraine. Jonathan also discusses the confirmed loss of the Russian Karakurt-class corvette Ascolt, damaged in a Ukrainian attack on dry docks in Kerch on 4th November. The damage is assessed as beyond economical repair.
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Increase in Partisan Activity: Berdyansk, Melitopol, Mariupol
🎦 05:26-06:19⏩
Jonathan highlights a noticeable rise in partisan and sabotage activity behind Russian lines. Citing a viewer comment about a car bombing in Berdyansk, he observes an increase in similar incidents in Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Mariupol. Assassinations within Russia, attacks on relay stations, and railway sabotage all point to this trend. Jonathan notes two separate incidents of trains being targeted, one in a tunnel in eastern Russia and another on an alternative line.
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Fire at ElectroZavod Factory in Moscow
🎦 06:19-07:52⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at the ElectroZavod factory in Moscow, a major manufacturer of transformer and reactor equipment. While the cause is uncertain, he speculates about a possible link to the war effort, given the factory's output. The incident is another in a series of fires in Russia, which have become increasingly common.
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Russian Missile and Drone Strikes
🎦 07:52-11:13⏩
Jonathan discusses overnight Russian strikes on Ukraine.
- He notes reports of rocket damage in cities including Kharkiv, attributed to six S-300 missiles launched from Belgorod. The short-range ballistic trajectory of the S-300s makes them difficult to intercept.
- Five out of seven Russian drones were intercepted by Ukrainian air defences.
- Overnight, explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipro. The Kharkiv strikes, attributed to the S-300 missiles, hit residential buildings. Jonathan observes that Kharkiv has been repeatedly targeted with indiscriminate attacks, likely in retaliation for its resistance early in the war.
- An additional 19 KH-101 and KH-555 cruise missiles were launched towards Ukraine, with 14 successfully intercepted. While this represents a decent success rate for Ukraine, the remaining five missiles likely struck their (military) targets. Jonathan points out that this is a relatively small wave compared to what Russia is believed to have stockpiled.
- All missiles targeting Kyiv were shot down, highlighting the strength of Kyiv's air defences. Jonathan suggests that Russia would be better served targeting areas with weaker defences.
- A thermal power plant in the frontline zone was struck, with two power units disabled. This attack, the seventh in recent weeks, has led to power shortages, compounded by cold weather.
Explosions and Infrastructure Damage: Kerch, Donetsk
🎦 11:13-13:26⏩
Jonathan reports on explosions and infrastructure damage:
- A fire on a gas pipeline in Russian-occupied Kerch has left 18,000 people without heating. While the cause is unknown, it could be sabotage or a drone strike.
- A large fire in Donetsk, initially thought to be an ammunition depot, was confirmed to be oil and fuel tanks. This strike aligns with the high number of fuel tanks and vehicles reported lost in the General Staff figures. The destruction of fuel, trucks and potentially trains represents a significant logistical blow to Russia.
Impact of Su-24M shootdown, Belarusian Detainee, Ukrainian Railways Cargo Increase, Russian Plane Fire
🎦 13:26-17:30⏩
Jonathan covers a range of developments:
- He discusses the downing of a Russian Su-24M fighter-bomber over the Black Sea. The incident, which Jonathan reported on previously, resulted in the deaths of both crew members. The type of air defence system used to down the aircraft remains unconfirmed, but the incident has led to a decrease in Russian air activity in the area. Jonathan contrasts this with a previous incident in Belgorod, where a Ukrainian Patriot system allegedly downed five aircraft in quick succession.
- Russian authorities claim to have detained a Belarusian national for blowing up trains carrying oil products in the Severobaikalsky Tunnel. The suspect allegedly acted on behalf of Ukrainian security services, placing magnetic mines on the trains. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the veracity of the claims.
- Since the start of the war, Ukrainian Railways has been transporting record amounts of cargo, with a 33.8% increase compared to the same period last year. This surge is largely attributed to blockades by Polish and Slovakian truck drivers, leading to trucks being transported by rail instead. Jonathan acknowledges the higher cost and reduced efficiency of this method but views it as a temporary solution.
- A passenger plane operated by the Russian airline S7, flying from Novosibirsk to Moscow, was forced to make an emergency landing after a fire broke out on takeoff. This incident highlights the ongoing struggles of the Russian passenger fleet, likely due to sanctions impacting parts and maintenance. Jonathan expresses reluctance to fly domestically in Russia.
Wrap up
🎦 17:30-17:42⏩
Jonathan concludes the first part of the update, noting it is relatively short compared to the upcoming geopolitical segment.
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