Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"If you think there's, what, 741 AFVs or something of that number being given, and now with all these tanks thrown in, that's even more goodness. That's a lot of kit now finding its way to Ukraine."
Hello Team!
Jonathan separates the overnight news and other news update from the frontline update due to the amount of news to cover. He mentions the importance of a cup of tea and having too many sources to cover.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian figures for Russian losses
- 910 liquidated Russian personnel (massive loss)
- 9 tanks, 23 APCs, 6 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 1 aircraft, 5 drones, 23 vehicles/fuel tanks lost
- Caveats about accuracy/propaganda as Russia don't produce similar figures
- Ukrainian long-range artillery hit 8 concentrations of Russian forces
Russian claims of Ukrainian losses
- Russia claims to have destroyed another HIMARS, putting their total claimed at 215% of what Ukraine has been provided (43 claimed destroyed out of 20 provided)
- Ukraine says not a single HIMARS has been destroyed
Military aid to Ukraine
- Flurry of aid announcements post-Ramstein meeting
- Switzerland may allow Germany, Denmark, Spain to transfer Swiss weapons to Ukraine (e.g. Gepard ammunition) - huge move if it happens
- Norway considering sending up to 8 out of 36 Leopard 2 tanks
- Spain joining European plan to supply Leopard tanks
- Suggestion that 15 NATO members operating Leopard 2s should provide at least half the number of tanks the US is providing in Bradleys (100+)
- Timing considerations - training crews, getting equipment ready, logistics of delivery
- Ideal scenario is Ukraine having entire ready-made battalions of tanks for spring offensives
- US may provide 30-50 Abrams tanks, but these would arrive in many months/years, allowing Leopard 2s to arrive first
- Sweden may send 10-12 Stridsvagn tanks (Leopard 2 variant) but defence minister says no preparations yet, maybe at a later stage
Pressure on Germany and impact of tank announcements
- Pressure on Germany grows as other nations announce tank donations
- Lack of Russian claims that tank announcements are "escalatory" gives green light to provide more equipment
- Challenger 2 tanks from UK and light tanks from France not deemed escalatory
- Fixed-wing aircraft and longer-range ordnance may be next items provided
Sanctions impact on Russia
- Russian media reports suggest Russia struggling to upgrade T-72 and T-80 tanks removed from storage to latest models due to sanctions
- Older, poorer quality optics and issues installing dynamic protection
- High-end parts restricted to 1990s era
- However, source for claims not provided so should be treated cautiously
US advice to Ukraine on offensive timing
- Senior US officials advising Ukraine to hold off on major offensive until latest US weaponry in place and training conducted
- Belief offensive would be more successful if Ukraine takes advantage of new weapons and training
- Ukraine has spent considerable resources defending Bakhmut but may eventually be pushed out by Russia
- Loss of Bakhmut would not result in major strategic shift
- Ukraine must weigh continuing to defend Bakhmut heavily against preserving resources for offensive to retake southern Ukraine
Indications of new Russian mobilization
- US and Western officials say there are signs Putin considering another mobilization of up to 200,000 men in coming weeks
- Kremlin conducting domestic polling to gauge support for mobilization
- Russia likely testing public opinion before deciding
- Questions over Russia's ability to equip and train so many new troops given heavy losses of equipment and experienced trainers
- However, Russia has previously found success by throwing large numbers of poorly trained troops at a problem
German exports to Russia at 20 year low
- German exports to Russia fell 45% to €14.6 billion in 2022, lowest level since 2003
- Reduced economic ties between Germany and Russia may be a factor in Germany's decision to allow tank exports to Ukraine
Wagner Group recruiting Ukrainian prisoners
- Wagner Group is recruiting Ukrainian citizens imprisoned in occupied territories to fight for Russia
- Concerns over how useful such troops would be and the difficult situation they would face if not wanting to fight against Ukraine
- Likely indicates Wagner is running low on manpower and expertise due to heavy losses
Wrap up
Jonathan will provide the frontline update in a separate video. He asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video, and thanks them for their support. Ways to support the channel are in the video description.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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