Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Minefields, Counter Analysis. Mobik Moans, & Feelgood Sunday
Table of Contents 📖
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"Imagine your job tomorrow they said 'oh I need you to go and go and do that out in the yard' and you say 'yeah but hang on isn't there like a 60% chance I'll die?' And you'd be like, 'yeah, go on then, go do it.' And you're like, 'I don't want it.' Why would, these are huge existential, we kind of almost take it for granted. Like that's you stopping existing."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses whether drones plus GMLRS (guided multiple launch rocket systems) are a cheaper alternative for Ukraine compared to using F-35s with bombs, given Ukraine's lack of air superiority. This tactic takes longer but may be more sustainable for Ukraine in the long run.
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Russian Logistics Challenges
- The systematic Ukrainian destruction of Russian manual labor gang warehouses along railways is a triple whammy to Russian logistics
- Forced dispersal away from warehouses increases the labor, trucks and admin overhead needed, at a time when Russia lacks trained replacement officers
- Ukraine shooting 5 artillery shells to every 2 Russian shells reflects the logistical reality that dispersal without modern IT and mechanized logistics is a huge tax on what can be delivered to Russian guns
Adaptation and Attrition in Ukraine Offensives
General Mick Ryan provides an update on the Ukrainian 2023 offensives, highlighting 5 key battlegrounds:
- Battle of Logistic and Transport Hubs
- Seizing the initiative - Ukraine has tactical initiative in the south and operational initiative with forces in reserve
- The adaptation battle - both sides demonstrating tactical adaptations
- The attrition battle - a war of industrial systems and stepping up munitions production is key
- The strategic influence fight - Ukraine mastering strategic comms while Russia influences China and global south
Russian Mobiks Refuse 'Suicide' Orders
Some Russian mobilized soldiers (mobiks) in Bakhmut are refusing what they call "suicide orders", complaining of terrible commanders, lack of ammo, artillery and air support, delayed payments and no rest. They were threatened with shooting for "betrayal" but say they are not "suiciders", just simple workers. Highlights the terrible conditions and morale among Russian forces.
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Economic Argument for Supporting Ukraine
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says redoubling support for Ukraine is the single best thing for the global economy. Ending the war is a moral imperative but also the best thing for global economic stability, as wars are bad for business. Supporting Ukraine to win as soon as possible helps everyone economically.
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Feel-good Animal Videos
Jonathan shares some light-hearted videos of a fox cub playing with a mobile phone, and Ukrainian soldiers interacting with various animals like dogs, cats, a fox and a hedgehog. Aims to end on a positive note despite the heavy topic of war.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and signs off until the next video.
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