Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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"If this is correct then Ukrainian pilots are going to be training on the F-16s, Gripens and depending on how France chooses to implement its commitment of May the 15th, possibly on Mirages, another great demilitarization success."
Hello Team!
Jonathan shares some "right-hand dingers" of news that he thinks is really good for Ukraine and pro-Ukrainians. He pokes fun at "Darth Putin" for losing another ship to a country without a navy while remaining a "master strategist".
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 460 liquidated Russian personnel, hanging around the 500 mark which is fairly low for the last 6 months
- Very low tank and APC losses (1 and 3 respectively)
- Massive figure of 25 artillery systems lost, part of an ongoing trend. Ukraine is definitely targeting and degrading Russia's artillery capability.
- 1 anti-aircraft system, 1 aircraft, 3 UAVs, 13 vehicles/fuel tanks, 2 pieces of special equipment
Russian Reconnaissance Ship Hit
The Russian reconnaissance ship Ivanko was hit by Ukrainian naval drones in the Black Sea. Russia initially claimed they destroyed all 3 drones and the ship was fine. However, after a 24 hour delay, Ukraine revealed the ship was indeed hit, demonstrating interesting information warfare tactics to allow Russian disinformation to spread before disproving it for greater effect.
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General Zaluzhny Appears
Putting to rest concerning rumors he had been seriously injured in a Russian strike, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Zaluzhny appeared in a video. Jonathan was very happy and relieved to see this as he believes Zaluzhny is critical to the Ukrainian war effort as an accomplished military leader. The video has spawned many memes.
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Overnight Attacks
- Ukraine shot down 1 Russian Su-25 jet near Melitopol, the pilot likely ejected. A 2nd jet was damaged and made an emergency landing. Thick black smoke was seen at the Melitopol airfield.
- Russia launched a major drone and missile attack across Ukraine overnight. All 10 cruise missiles were shot down but 23 of 31 Shahed drones got through. Ballistic missiles caused damage in Dnipro and Kharkiv.
- Ukraine has been heavily striking Russian targets in occupied territories and Russia itself. Berdyansk ammunition depots were hit hard by Storm Shadow missiles. Drone attacks struck Krasnodar and Rostov in Russia. Tokmak, Vasylivka and other Zaporizhzhia locations are being "absolutely pummeled".
Satellite Evidence of Attacks
The Economist reports satellite data detected 907 fires likely related to the war in Russian-held Ukrainian territory over the past 2 weeks, a 4X increase from the prior 2 weeks. This supports other evidence of a major uptick in Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets.
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Military Aid
- US announcing new $300M aid package, likely more GMLRS rockets
- Finland sending $116M, including anti-aircraft weapons
- Spain sending 4 more Leopard 2 tanks and M113 APCs
- Canada donating 43 AIM-9 short-range air-to-air missiles
- South Korea to transfer hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds to Ukraine in confidential deal with US
Aircraft & Pilot Training
In major news, Sweden will provide training for Ukrainian pilots on JAS-39 Gripen fighters, strongly implying Ukraine will receive Gripens in the future. Ukrainian officials want 200 Western jets to counter Russia's air force and are hoping to get F-16s from several countries. Limited training resources are an issue. The US training on Abrams tanks has begun in Germany.
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Miscellaneous News
- Over 100 Ukrainian soldiers and fighters from Bakhmut direction returned home in a prisoner exchange.
- Pro-Kremlin media figure Konstantin Dolgov says he was fired for interviewing Wagner head Prigozhin, highlighting tensions between Wagner and the Russian military.
- Japan expanding sanctions on Russia, freezing assets of 17 more individuals
- UK plans to keep Russian assets frozen until Russia pays compensation to Ukraine, a less legally risky alternative to seizing and liquidating the assets directly
- Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, in poor health, charged with 7 more offenses
Wrap up
Jonathan believes there are 4 very significant positive news items for Ukraine. He asks viewers to like, subscribe and share, thanks the awesome community, and signs off.
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