Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Zaluzhny News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is taking down, this is a suppression or destruction of enemy air defenses, that's what this is, and it's an incredibly successful strike. A high-value target taken out with much lower-value munitions."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:40⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a late-in-the-day Ukraine War News Update for February 3rd, 2024. He mentions he's had a few Guinnesses after a trip to the barber and watching rugby.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses (02/02/2024)
🎦 00:40-01:45⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses on February 2nd, 2024:
- 880 personnel
- 10 tanks
- 13 APVs
- 26 artillery systems
- 1 MLRS system
- 36 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 3 pieces of special equipment.
He notes these figures might be slightly outdated and reminds viewers to find the source and caveats in the video description.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss Statistics (02/02/2024)
🎦 01:48-03:45⏩
Jonathan examines Andrew Perpetua's visual confirmation of equipment losses, noting the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is around 1.5 to 1. He highlights the significance of the destroyed equipment, even though it doesn't reflect the 3-to-5 times loss ratio seen in previous weeks. He mentions the destruction of an M109 artillery piece (likely US-provided) and a few Ukrainian tanks (T-72s, T-64BV). On the Russian side, losses include a surveillance and communications equipment, an artillery piece, several tanks (T-72B3Ms, TAT BVs, T-72Bs), BMPs, APCs, and other equipment. Jonathan also highlights the use of a Krasnopol, a Russian laser-guided munition similar to Excalibur.
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Footage of Russian Casualties in an Industrial Unit
🎦 03:51-05:24⏩
Jonathan presents footage depicting a large number of coffins containing Russian soldiers, stacked outside an industrial unit. He points out the disrespectful manner in which the dead are being handled and suggests that this could significantly impact the morale of Russian troops.
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Sinking of the Russian Vessel Ivanovic: Contrasting Narratives and Significance
🎦 05:24-08:27⏩
Jonathan discusses the sinking of the Russian vessel Ivanovic, showing a 2017 Russian news report where the ship's captain boasted about its capabilities, including its ability to sink an aircraft carrier. He contrasts this with claims by Russian sources, particularly Twitter user "who's at Squats" (likely referring to @ZOKA_MLADOY), who downplayed the significance of the loss. Jonathan explains the prevailing theory that the Ivanovic was stationed in a lake on the northwestern shore of Crimea to act as an air defense radar, making it a strategically important target. He criticizes those who dismiss the attack, emphasizing its success in destroying a high-value target using cheaper, unmanned surface vehicles (USVs).
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Visualisation of Destroyed Russian Tanks
🎦 08:27-08:53⏩
Jonathan shares a visualization from Oryx, showing the 2,678 Russian tanks visually confirmed as destroyed during the war.
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Ukrainian Air Force Confirms Damage at Belbek Air Base
🎦 08:53-12:13⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian Air Force has confirmed their January 31st strike on Belbek Air Base in Crimea damaged at least three Russian military aircraft. He acknowledges previous skepticism surrounding the initial reports from AndWar translated and highlights the confirmation from Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihnat. He then details the attack using information from ChrisOwiki. The Ukrainians used SCALP or Storm Shadow missiles to target a command post housed in a metal trailer. While damage to the surrounding area was minimal, it is believed the airframes were damaged. Jonathan provides a timeline of the attack based on a Russian Telegram channel report. The missiles, launched from the sea, were detected by the Black Sea fleet at 4:15 pm. At 5:13 pm, a local resident reported an explosion at the airfield. While Russian sources confirmed the destruction of the command post, they did not mention the damage to the aircraft or casualties, which included a high-ranking official. Despite this omission, Jonathan concludes that the airframes were likely damaged, and the official was likely killed.
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Fire at Correctional Colony Number Nine in Solomansk, Russia
🎦 12:14-12:31⏩
Jonathan reports a fire spanning 1,200 square meters at Correctional Colony Number Nine in Solomansk, Russia. The fire engulfed a woodworking shop within the prison.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks: Overnight and Current Day (02-03/02/2024)
🎦 12:38-13:43⏩
Jonathan discusses the previous night's drone attacks (February 2nd), stating that Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 out of 14 Russian drones in southern and central Ukraine. He then shifts to drone strikes that occurred earlier today (February 3rd), reporting that Kryvyi Rih experienced power outages for the second consecutive day after Russian drones targeted energy infrastructure. He adds that 7,500 users were left without power, and tram and trolleybus services were temporarily affected.
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Ukrainian Drone Strike on Lukoil Oil Refinery in Volgograd
🎦 13:47-16:48⏩
Jonathan reports a Ukrainian drone strike on the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd, Russia. The drone, able to travel at least 500 km, caused a fire. He highlights this location was previously identified as a potential target on a map shared by Twitter user PS01 (presumably referring to @PS0154820874). Jonathan notes that this attack, the seventh on Russian oil and gas infrastructure this year, has a two-pronged effect: disrupting Russian hydrocarbon exports and impacting the Russian military's fuel supply. He cites Anton Gerashchenko, who states this attack partially disrupted production at the refinery and that Russian gasoline and diesel exports fell 37% and 23% respectively in January. The Russian Energy Ministry attributes these declines to refinery repair work, but Gerashchenko believes it's due to the ongoing strikes.
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Polish Public Opinion on Shooting Down Russian Missiles
🎦 16:48-17:44⏩
Jonathan shares the results of a poll showing that 69.3% of Polish citizens believe their country should shoot down Russian missiles in Ukrainian border regions. He expresses his hope that Poland might assist Ukraine in this way, potentially sharing the air defense burden in areas like Lviv, which is close to the Polish border.
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Zelensky's Decision on Dismissing General Zaluzhny: Conflicting Reports and Public Backlash
🎦 17:44-19:01⏩
Jonathan discusses reports from The Washington Post suggesting Ukrainian President Zelensky informed the White House of his decision to dismiss General Valery Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He adds that the White House neither supported nor opposed the decision. There is speculation that this information predates the emergence of rumors surrounding Zaluzhny's potential dismissal, and it's unclear if the White House was contacted before or after the rumors began circulating. Jonathan also mentions sources close to Zelensky claiming that, due to significant public backlash, he has reversed his decision.
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Crimean Bridge: Kuleba's Claim, Duda's Doubts, and Ukrainian Ambassador's Response
🎦 19:01-23:01⏩
Jonathan addresses the ongoing mystery surrounding the Crimean Bridge, which, despite being hit multiple times, has not been completely destroyed. He cites Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's statement in Le Figaro that Ukraine currently lacks the weaponry to destroy the bridge, but when it happens, it will be a cause for celebration. Jonathan dismisses the theory that Ukraine is waiting for the right moment to destroy the bridge, as they have already had opportunities to do so. He suggests the delay is likely due to Ukraine not wanting to waste valuable munitions, such as Storm Shadow or SCALP missiles, given the strong Russian air defense systems protecting the bridge. He questions whether the Taurus missile, with its larger warhead, might be more effective but acknowledges the limited supply of these advanced weapons. Jonathan then highlights differing opinions on Ukraine's ability to retake Crimea. Polish President Andrzej Duda publicly expressed doubts about Ukraine's capabilities, prompting a response from Vasyl Zvarych, the Ukrainian ambassador to Poland, who asserted that Crimea is undeniably Ukrainian territory and that Russia will be held accountable for its temporary occupation. Despite facing criticism, Duda later clarified his stance, stating he has supported Ukraine since the war's beginning and condemns Russia's aggression. However, this clarification doesn't necessarily contradict his earlier doubts about Ukraine's capacity to reclaim Crimea in the near future.
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Footage of Failed Russian Mechanized Assault on Nova Kakhovka
🎦 23:01-24:25⏩
Jonathan shows additional footage of the botched Russian mechanized assault on Nova Kakhovka. The video reveals a chaotic scene where a column of 11-12 Russian vehicles, attempting to navigate a road, end up crashing into each other, completely disabling one T-72 tank. Jonathan expresses bewilderment at the incompetence of the Russian troops, noting that they managed to take themselves out before even encountering Ukrainian forces.
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Arrests at "Way Home" Protest in Moscow
🎦 24:25-25:39⏩
Jonathan reports the arrest of 27 people, including journalists, at a "Way Home" protest in Moscow. He explains that this movement, supported by Alexei Navalny's team, consists primarily of mothers and wives demanding the return of their loved ones from the front lines. Jonathan highlights the increasing number of arrests at these protests, emphasizing the lack of freedom in Russia. He specifically mentions the arrests of a video journalist from Agence France-Presse and a photojournalist from Der Spiegel.
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Blackout in Belgrade
🎦 25:39-25:55⏩
Jonathan shows footage of Belgrade experiencing a blackout, commenting on the difficult situation in both Ukraine and Russia.
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Wrap Up
🎦 25:56-25:59⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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