Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - the first part of his Ukraine War Update for the 10th June 2024 (if you don't include his synopsis on the EU elections).

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Jonathan's Mathematical Aside

🎦 00:14-03:12⏩

Jonathan starts with a mathematical aside after being called out (rightly so) by a viewer for using incorrect maths when discussing Ukrainian inflation of Russian losses. He realised that when considering a 30% (or 33.3% or one third) inflation of figures, to reverse this you cannot simply reduce the inflated figure by 30% (or one third) as this does not take into account that the base figure is now much lower. Using 1000 as an example, a 30% inflation gives a figure of 1300. Reducing this inflated figure by 30% brings you back to 910, not 1000, and this actually represents a 10% reduction, not a 30% reduction. Reducing 1300 by one third gives a figure of 866 (two thirds of 1300) which is much lower than the 1000 we started with. To get back to the original 1000, you'd need to add on 50% (of 666). Jonathan will revise his calculations in future and use 15-20% as a "realistically large percentage of inflation".

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Ukrainian General Staff Daily Losses - 09 June 2024

🎦 03:12-04:28⏩

Jonathan moves onto the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for 9th June 2024, noting that to provide for a realistically large percentage of inflation he'll need to scale back his previous estimates. He notes that the figure of 1,190 Russian personnel losses for the 9th June is down towards the 1000 mark and that this is still an incredibly high number. 10 tanks lost is slightly higher than average, 51 artillery systems is three times the average (a huge loss). The remaining categories (13 APCs, 1 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 56 vehicles and fuel tanks and 14 pieces of special equipment) are described as either "lower than average" "higher than average" or "a pretty high number". Jonathan concludes that this was a "fairly difficult day for the Russians again" and notes that we are seeing this on a daily basis.

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Andrew Perpetua's Daily Losses - 09 June 2024

🎦 04:28-08:36⏩

Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's latest list of verified Russian and Ukrainian losses for the 9th June 2024. Jonathan notes that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is closer to parity than we have seen over the last couple of weeks, with Russian losses slightly higher at a ratio of 2:1 or 1.5:1. He notes that the list includes Starlink terminals for Russian losses and suggests that these should not be included. _Ukrainian Losses_ Looking at the Ukrainian losses first, Jonathan notes the loss of an AN/TPQ-36 radar (this is the second such radar lost) but notes that it is listed as damaged, not destroyed. An M777 Howitzer and M1A1 Abrams are also listed as damaged. Jonathan highlights the loss of a Bradley and capture of a BMP-2 in the Infantry Fighting Vehicle category, noting that we are likely to see more Western equipment featuring in loss lists in future (in the APC, Bradley and Tank categories) because (as with the Russians) the Ukrainians will have cycled through their older equipment. He notes that on the one hand it's bad news as it indicates they have lost a lot of equipment, but on the other, it's good news as it means they are now using more modern, survivable equipment. To demonstrate this he notes that 8 vehicles were lost in the APC category and only one of these (a BTR) is Soviet era equipment - the other seven are Western provided (M113s, Humvees, Strikers). _Russian Losses_ Turning to the Russian losses, Jonathan notes a damaged Su-57, a damaged 9K32 Strela-10 short range, low altitude surface to air missile system, a destroyed electronic warfare system, two destroyed recovery vehicles and a number of destroyed engineering vehicles (including some AEVs - armoured engineering vehicles). Jonathan notes that the Russians are losing a considerable number of engineering and recovery vehicles - some of these will be military vehicles, others excavators and civilian vehicles. Other than this the remaining categories (artillery, tanks, IFVs, APCs, trucks, civilian vehicles) are described as "nothing too serious" or "normal state of affairs". Jonathan concludes that although there were a large number of pieces of equipment lost by the Russians, this equalises somewhat if the Starlink terminals are removed.

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Russian Losses in Ukraine vs Soviet-Afghan War

🎦 08:36-11:12⏩

Jonathan compares Russian losses in Ukraine to those from the Soviet-Afghan War, citing an example of a Russian City (Artyom) which lost 4 people in 9 years during the Soviet Afghan War (1979-1989), and 51 in two years of the war in Ukraine. This is a significant difference given the population of the town was 72,000 in 1982 and 109,000 today - if you take a quarter off that to account for population growth, it's still a "massively large number of dead compared to the Afghan war". He speculates whether this is an anomalous data point (for this particular city) or whether this can be extrapolated to provide an indication for overall losses in the two wars.

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Ukraine Air Strike Inside Russia - Update from GUR Representative

🎦 11:12-12:03⏩

Jonathan notes that a GUR representative has stated that two Su-57s may have been damaged, not just one. This is yet to be verified. The representative also said that there is data relating to "irreversible losses and wounded among the personnel of the occupiers". Sky News reported that Ukrainian Military sources have said that for the first time, a Ukrainian Warplane has conducted an airstrike on a Russian command post inside Russia, and that in a separate attack, a large Russian landing ship has been damaged in the Azov Sea.

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Ukrainian Warplane Strike on Russian Territory - First Time?

🎦 12:03-13:09⏩

Jonathan discusses the Sky News report about a Ukrainian warplane conducting an airstrike on Russian Territory (believed to be the first time), noting that this is significant in light of the limitations on using weapons such as ATACMS to strike Russian territory. He questions whether the use of an airframe to launch an attack changes things. However, viewer John Ridge points out that this is not technically correct, as two Ukrainian Su-24Ms bombed an aviation factory in Kursk in Spring 2022, flying 80km into Russian territory to carry out the attack. Jonathan had forgotten about this, admitting "goodness me, I'd forgotten all about this" and notes that there were some helicopter and jet strikes inside Russia at the beginning of the war. These attacks were incredibly risky but not unheard of. This latest attack marks the first time that such an attack has taken place in the more recent iteration of the war.

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Strike in Belgorod - Ammunition Storage Destroyed

🎦 13:09-14:25⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a large fire at a Russian ammunition storage facility in Belgorod, noting the secondary explosions. He notes that the Russians had positioned the ammunition storage facility in the middle of a civilian neighbourhood. He shows further footage of the fire (from a different angle) and notes that it's a "big old fire going on there". There is a voice of a woman in the background of the video asking "I wonder if soldiers lived there?" There are conflicting reports about the target of the strike - some report that it was an ammunition depot, others a command and control node, and others a troop accumulation point. Michael McKay states that this is the same strike and that it was targeting a "troop and equipment concentration of the Russian fascist invaders".

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Strike in Belgorod - Location Confirmed as Valyuki (Staging Post)

🎦 14:25-15:17⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a fire at what is believed to be the same facility. Gleisnos Gon confirms the location as Valyuki, 24km from the Ukrainian border. This is a large, sprawling invasion staging post and contains a lot of equipment and military supply trucks. Gon speculates that the new green roof building in the compound may contain ammunition. Jonathan shows satellite imagery of the facility, confirming that it is large and contains a lot of equipment. Jonathan notes that a large roof can be seen on fire in the video. He concludes that "it could do with a few more strikes by the look of it".

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US Air Defence Chief Reveals Ukrainians Using Patriots in New Ways

🎦 15:17-17:58⏩

Jonathan plays a clip of an American military woman in charge of US Air Defence. She says that the Ukrainians are using air defence systems in ways that have never been used before. They are being moved around (rather than remaining static) and used for "Surface Air Missile Ambush" or "SAMbush". This is being done with the German provided Patriot systems (which have the advantage of being mounted on trucks so can be moved around). She suggests that this tactic was used to shoot down a Russian A-50 (AWACS type plane) back in January. Jonathan notes that it is interesting that she mentions that the German Patriots (which are truck mounted and so inherently more mobile) are being used more effectively and closer to the frontlines. This is something that he has been calling for for a long time. He wonders if the shooting down of the A50 in January by a Patriot is new information, or whether she is just speculating. There was a lot of speculation at the time about whether the A-50 was shot down by a Patriot or an S-200. He concludes by saying "throw that one into the mix" and notes that the Russians have been very quiet in response to the video (which isn't surprising as red lines seem to have been crossed without consequence. )

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Effectiveness of Guided Bombs in Decline Due to Electronic Warfare

🎦 17:58-20:26⏩

Jonathan reports that the effectiveness of guided bombs is in decline due to increased use of Electronic Warfare systems on both sides. These systems are significantly impacting the accuracy of bombs. He goes on to read a comment from "Fighter Bomber" who provides further context. Ukraine has had a working guided module for bombs even before the war began, and there are stockpiles of ready-made glide bombs so the commenter doesn't understand why Ukraine would be going to the effort of making their own. Electronic Warfare is affecting the accuracy of both Russian and Western (e.g. JDAM) satellite guidance systems, reducing accuracy to critical levels. The commenter believes that the solution is more advanced inertial navigation systems and correction systems that cannot be interfered with. Jonathan notes that the French Hammer bomb isn't as badly affected because it has other navigation methods. He concludes that this is an interesting development (the accuracy of Russian bombs being badly affected) and one that we haven't really heard anything about up to now.

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More Russian Equipment Destroyed in Ukraine

🎦 20:26-22:26⏩

Footage is shown of a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launcher being destroyed. This may be the same launcher that featured in yesterday's list of equipment losses. Further footage is shown of a German Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer being hit by a Russian Lancet loitering munition. Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua had highlighted this footage, suggesting that the editing of the video (the way it cuts away at the crucial moment) is typical of Russian propaganda. He notes that the Russian video editors often cut away right at the end so you can't see the extent of the damage caused and that usually, this means that there wasn't much damage at all. He shows how the video cuts to lower quality footage at the critical moment (as it hits), stating "that's what the Russians do more often than not" and concludes that this probably means that not much damage was done to the $40 million Panzerhaubitze 2000. Jonathan concludes by saying that the Lancet loitering munitions have a "variable success rate". Sometimes they don't cause much damage (either because they miss or because they have a smaller warhead fitted), and sometimes they do.

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Impact of Ukraine War on Firefighting in Russia

🎦 22:26-23:24⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a large fire raging in what he describes as a "massive fire" before moving onto the impact of the war in Ukraine on Russia's ability to fight fires. Viewer Trent Telenko notes the lack of male firefighters available to tackle the blaze, joking that "not enough Russian male firefighters". Jonathan explains that prior to the war, Russian military conscripts would assist with putting out fires (especially during the summer wild fire season). However, due to the war in Ukraine, this is no longer possible, and consequently, fires are raging, causing problems for Russia. He shows footage of a fire at what is described as a "city dump" noting that it has been burning for hours. He goes on to show footage of the fire at night (still burning).

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Russia on Fire - Novorossiysk, Moscow and Samara

🎦 23:24-25:05⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a large fire in Novorossiysk (home of the Black Sea Fleet) at a landfill site, noting that it is located near a residential area and that the locals are "furious". The Mayor is trying to reassure people that the blaze is under control. Jonathan then shows footage of a large fire in Moscow which engulfed a lorry and crane. This fire completely blocked the Third Ring Road. It is not clear what caused this fire, but it caused significant disruption in a critical area of Moscow. Jonathan then shows a video of a large fire at a furniture factory in Samara. Eyewitnesses say that smoke could be seen up to 5km away. It is not clear what caused this fire, but there are suggestions (unconfirmed) that it was a drone attack. He concludes "Goodness, so many fires".

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Missile Strikes in Crimea Overnight - 09/10 June 2024

🎦 25:05-26:47⏩

Jonathan reports that there have been a number of missile strikes overnight in Crimea - it was a "busy night". The Ukrainian Review reports that there were between six and eight explosions in Krasnoperekops'k, Dzhankoi districts and Pervomays'kyi. Four explosions were also reported in Yevpatoria and Saky. Jonathan confirms that the locations of Dzhankoi and Saky are airbases. A military facility near the village of Naumovka is also suspected to have been hit. The Ukrainian review states that four missiles struck a ground object near Yevpatoria. Analysis of FIRMS data from NASA suggests significant fires in six locations, mostly in open fields (which could indicate that air defence systems were targeted). Russian sources are claiming that 12 Ukrainian ATACMS missiles were used in the attack.

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Pro-Russian Sources Report on Overnight Missile Attacks

🎦 26:47-28:06⏩

Jonathan reports that Pro-Russian Telegram channel Rebar has stated that Ukrainian forces launched a missile attack on Northwestern Crimea, firing at least 12 ATACMS missiles from Mykolaiv Oblast. They claim that the targeted areas included Chornomorske, Yevpatoria and Dzhankoi and that air defence systems were activated. They go on to say that the exact targets are unknown but that they are likely to have included the 31st Air Force and Air Defence Divisions. The absence of fire and secondary explosions suggest that the attacks were either repelled or caused minimal damage. Jonathan points out that this is contrary to the FIRMS data which shows a number of significant fires.

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Drone Attack on Russian Ships in the Sea of Azov

🎦 28:06-29:27⏩

Jonathan reports that Kazan Airport in Russia is temporarily closed. He moves on to a report in Russian Media that a tugboat and barge have been damaged in a drone attack in the Taganrog Bay in the North East of the Sea of Azov. The tugboat Engineer Smelyakov sustained damage to its windows, and a barge (section 179) sustained damage above the waterline. It is not clear whether the drones were maritime drones, and Jonathan is unsure how they would have got past the Kerch Strait Bridge.

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More on the Drone Attack on Akhtubinsk Airbase

🎦 29:27-32:20⏩

Jonathan returns to the drone attack on Akhtubinsk airbase which damaged (at least) one Su-57. Russian sources state that the attack was carried out by "invisible drones that cannot be shot down by any air defence system in the world". Jonathan speculates that the drones may have been made of Balsa wood to avoid detection by radar. He believes that the drones were able to get through not because they were invisible but because of a complete lack of Russian air defences so far behind the frontlines. He confirms that in addition to the Su-57, a Pantsir-S1 and S-300 air defence system were either damaged or destroyed in the attack, meaning that the airbase is now very vulnerable. Jonathan views this as incredibly significant, noting that it was hinted at previously by the GUR representative. Viewer Trent Telenko suggests that the Russian claim that the drones are invisible is ridiculous and that the reason that the drones are getting through is due to the lack of low altitude radar coverage. They simply don't see them. He concludes that "you might have S-300s, you might have Pantsirs but if it (the drone) flies low enough, then it's very difficult to detect".

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Ukrainian Anti-Aircraft Missile Unit Destroys 139 Targets

🎦 32:20-32:51⏩

Jonathan shows an image of what the side of a command vehicle belonging to the commander (Lieutenant Colonel Gvrilo Pericoco) of a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile unit looks like. The side of the vehicle is adorned with symbols representing the 139 Russian targets that they have destroyed. Most if not all appear to be drones and missiles. Jonathan describes this as "incredibly impressive".

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D-Day Veteran Returns Russian Medal

🎦 32:51-33:24⏩

Jonathan reports that a 99 year old D-Day Veteran from the UK, Alec Penston, has returned a Russian Medal of Ushakov he received after World War Two, disgusted with Putin's actions in Ukraine. Jonathan agrees with his sentiment, stating "absolutely right there, good on you mate".

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Ukrainian Military Dog Vasya Dies

🎦 33:24-34:12⏩

Jonathan shares the sad news that a Ukrainian military dog called Vasya has died of natural causes. Vasya (a Cane Corso) served with the Ukrainian military in the Donbas from 2016 and in 2022 was injured after getting caught in wire close to Russian positions whilst on patrol with Ukrainian scouts. When the scouts returned, Vasya was gone. He later returned, having chewed off his paw to escape. He was given a prosthesis in Poland. Jonathan shows a picture of Vasya with his prosthesis, describing him as a "legend" and saying "sad, but heartwarming at the same time".

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Kerch Strait Bridge Update

🎦 34:12-35:08⏩

Jonathan addresses a comment from a viewer who said that the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge is not being used to supply Russian forces, stating "Just got kicked in the teeth by reality". He shows footage of a train crossing the bridge, confirming that although it may not be being used to full capacity it is certainly being used to transport military cargo.

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Russian Hackers Target Putin Regime

🎦 35:08-36:06⏩

Jonathan reports that a group of Russian Hackers are targeting the Putin regime. The group have had considerable success attacking government targets in Russia and Belarus and are promising big news soon. Jonathan notes that this is encouraging news. The group (who appear to be affiliated with the Anonymous hacktivist group) have been carrying out Denial of Service attacks on government websites, taking them offline for up to 18 hours at a time. They state "Putin must fall. Russia must be free".

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Russian Assault on Kharkiv Stalled - Jake Sullivan

🎦 36:06-38:11⏩

Jonathan reports that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has announced that the Russian offensive in Kharkiv has stalled. He confirms that the US will continue to provide support to Ukraine to help them hold the line and push back against Russian aggression. Jonathan believes that this is big news and that it needs to be acknowledged and celebrated. Jonathan states that the renewed Russian offensive in Kharkiv has been an "operational disaster" and agrees with Andrew Perpetua's assessment that the offensive makes no military sense. It achieves no military objectives, is a complete waste of resources, undermines Russia's other objectives and makes Russia look weak. Perpetua notes that the Russians are now doubling down and committing more resources to what is clearly a failing strategy. Jonathan agrees, stating "It's the definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result". He concludes by saying "This is really good news that it has failed so badly".

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Ukrainian General Staff Confirms Success of Crimean Strikes

🎦 38:11-41:00⏩

Jonathan announces that as he is about to finish the video, the Ukrainian General Staff has released a statement confirming the success of the missile strikes in Crimea. The statement confirms that they successfully struck an S-400 and two S-300 air defence systems in occupied Crimea using missiles, with none being intercepted. They go on to say that they observed the radars of all three systems shutting down immediately after the attack and that there were secondary explosions at all three locations. Jonathan notes that it's not clear whether the radars were shut down deliberately (to avoid providing a return signal and making them less vulnerable to attack) or whether they were taken out in the strike. Jonathan notes that this is massive news - he speculates that if Ukraine continue to degrade Russian air defences in Crimea and Kherson, could this pave the way for a combined amphibious and paratrooper assault on Crimea, or would this be "completely suicidal". He concludes by saying that the systematic destruction of Russian air defence systems is exceptionally good news for Ukraine.

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Wrap Up

🎦 41:00-41:02⏩

Jonathan signs off with "That's a positive note to end on, take care and I will speak to you soon"

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"If that's true overnight this is incredible, like Russia is getting their air defence systems uh rinsed at the moment"