Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
"Every time an allied nation gives something to Ukraine, the question is, what are Russia getting? Like, is this matched at all? And if it's not, like every one of these tabs I talk you through is a real bonus for Ukraine"
22/03/2024B
Hello Team
00:00-00:45⏩Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update, describing the day's news as "very difficult" for Ukrainians. He notes a recent breaking news segment and live stream discussion with Greg about overnight missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. Today's focus is military aid.
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EU considers using frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian military aid
00:45-03:16⏩Jonathan discusses a potential EU plan to use profits from frozen Russian assets held within the EU to fund Ukrainian military aid. The proposal suggests a 90/10 split, with 90% going directly towards military equipment and 10% invested in Ukraine's defence industry. Austria opposes the plan, citing its neutrality as a reason to avoid spending its investments on military aid. Jonathan explores potential compromises, such as proportionally allocating funds for humanitarian aid or reconstruction. He highlights the EU's commitment to finalising this plan. He then discusses a US proposal to issue bonds backed by these frozen assets, potentially providing a solution to the Congressional funding impasse. France and Germany oppose this bond proposal, preferring direct aid over loans.
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France: EU doubles artillery shell production; Poland: Allies may develop nuclear weapons if US aid falters
03:16-05:39⏩Jonathan reports Thierry Breton's statement about the EU doubling its artillery shell production capacity to 2 million by 2025 and entering "war economy mode". Jonathan views this as a positive step, demonstrating the EU's understanding of Ukraine's needs and potential concerns about the reliability of US aid. He then shares Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski's statement: if the US doesn't deliver military support, allies may resort to developing nuclear weapons due to America's perceived dysfunction and unreliability. Jonathan acknowledges concerns about nuclear proliferation as an unintended consequence of insufficient aid to Ukraine, citing a discussion with Hamish de Bretton-Gordon on the topic.
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US Military Aid to Ukraine: A Visual Breakdown
05:39-07:19⏩Jonathan presents an infographic detailing US military aid to Ukraine. Key points include:
- Previously committed funds ran out in November 2023.
- $61.4 billion in aid has been delayed in Congress for four months (almost six months at the time of this video).
- The last substantial aid package, worth $42.2 billion, expired in November 2023.
- Due to the Congressional impasse, the US has resorted to transferring weapons directly from Pentagon stockpiles, depleting US reserves.
- A $126 million aid package is expected, the fourth such transfer outside main packages.
US House Discharge Petition: Slow Progress and the Need for Bipartisan Support
07:19-09:42⏩Jonathan discusses the House discharge petition aimed at securing aid for Ukraine. 188 out of 218 signatures are needed, with 188 currently signed. He sees little hope without Republican support, emphasising the need for a bipartisan approach to this non-partisan issue. He welcomes Republican Ken Buck's signature, praising his principled stance amidst Congressional chaos, but acknowledges the need for more Republicans to follow suit. He then issues a correction from a previous video, clarifying that Senator Joe Manchin represents a coal-mining state, not an oil-rich one. Jonathan reiterates Manchin's statement on the urgency of aiding Ukraine, a sentiment he strongly agrees with.
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Netherlands Pledges €2 Billion, F-16s, and the Race for NATO Secretary General
09:42-13:20⏩Jonathan reports the Netherlands' pledge of €2 billion in military funding for Ukraine, with €250 million allocated to a Czech initiative to purchase artillery shells. He commends Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte's statement: "this is not our last contribution," highlighting the Netherlands' commitment to supplying 24 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. This leads to a discussion about the potential candidates for the next NATO Secretary General. Rutte is considered a frontrunner due to his perceived strength in dealing with Donald Trump. Jonathan analyses the rumours and political dynamics surrounding this selection process, addressing the potential candidacy of figures like Denmark's Frederiksen, Estonia's Kallas, and Romania's Iohannis. He highlights the importance of choosing a leader from Eastern Europe who can effectively address the ongoing conflict.
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Military Aid Roundup: Estonia, Lithuania, Czech Republic and Poland
13:20-16:17⏩Jonathan provides a quick rundown of military aid from various countries:
- Estonia: Announced a €20 million military aid package for Ukraine, including recoilless anti-tank guns, explosives, artillery ammunition, gas masks, sniper equipment, and small-caliber ammunition.
- Lithuania: Handed over anti-drone systems to Ukraine. Jonathan emphasises the significance of these contributions, highlighting the disparity in military aid between Ukraine and Russia.
- Czech Republic: Delivered two Mi-24V/35 Hind helicopters to Ukraine via Poland, bringing the total number of helicopters sent to eight. The last remaining Hind will be placed in a museum.
- Poland: Pledged logistical and financial support for the Czech-led plan to purchase ammunition for Ukraine from sources outside Europe. Jonathan underscores the importance of logistics in ensuring timely delivery of military equipment.
France Suspects Russian Cyberattacks and the Nature of Cyberwarfare
16:17-19:54⏩Jonathan reports on French suspicions of Russian cyberattacks targeting public infrastructure and defence industrial base companies like Thales and Nexter. He argues that these cyberattacks are tantamount to acts of war, drawing parallels between disrupting a hospital's functionality through hacking and achieving the same result through physical bombing. He contends that the distinction between cyberwarfare and traditional warfare is increasingly blurred. Jonathan acknowledges the challenges of attributing such attacks directly to Russia, as they often operate through proxies and maintain plausible deniability. He believes that the West's reluctance to escalate stems from a desire to avoid a full-blown war and the potential for similar cyber activity being conducted against Russia.
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Franco-German Defence Cooperation, Ukrainian Pilot Training, and Thales Group Production
19:54-25:08⏩Jonathan discusses concerns about potential Russian cyberattacks during the European elections and the Paris Olympics. He then reports on a Franco-German agreement allowing the defence company KNDS, a producer of tanks, to establish a branch in Ukraine. This signifies positive cooperation between France and Germany despite perceived differences in their approaches to the war. He welcomes this collaboration, especially in light of their joint development of a next-generation tank (MGCS). Jonathan announces the graduation of the first Ukrainian pilots to receive intensive training from Royal Air Force instructors. These pilots will continue their advanced training in France, ultimately preparing to operate F-16 fighter jets. The training program is a joint effort between the British and French air forces. The segment concludes with a spotlight on Thales Group, a defence manufacturer with a factory in Belfast that produces NLAW anti-tank guided missiles and Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles used in Ukraine. Jonathan praises the factory's full capacity production to meet Ukrainian demand.
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German Aid in Detail: From Hydrons to Detonating Cords
25:08-26:21⏩Jonathan acknowledges a Twitter thread detailing German military aid to Ukraine, showcasing a German-provided Hydron and a FIM-92 Stinger in use by Ukrainian forces. He highlights the importance of less glamorous but crucial supplies like the 100,000 meters of detonating cords supplied by Germany, emphasising that Ukraine needs a wide range of equipment beyond headline-grabbing weapons.
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Russian Reports of Ukrainian Drone Swarms
26:21-27:38⏩Jonathan discusses Russian reports of Ukrainian drone swarms operating in the Avdiivka direction. While acknowledging the possibility of misinformation, he notes the anticipation surrounding the use of drone swarms and autonomous technologies in warfare.
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Russian Volunteer Corps Captures Russian Soldiers and the Challenges of Trust
27:38-28:33⏩Jonathan reports on the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), a group of Russian citizens fighting for Ukraine, capturing 37 Russian soldiers. He recounts RVC commander Denis Kapustin's statement that some prisoners expressed interest in joining the RVC. Jonathan expresses scepticism about the trustworthiness of such claims and highlights the inherent risks involved.
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Russia Ramps Up Bomb Production, Raising Concerns about Escalation
28:33-31:16⏩Jonathan shares a video released by the Russian Defence Ministry showcasing a factory producing FAB-3000 super-heavy aerial bombs. He questions the practicality of these large bombs, citing expert opinions that suggest limitations in the carrying capacity of Russian aircraft. Jonathan remains cautiously optimistic, believing that the impact of these bombs might be less significant than some fear. He then shares Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov's tweet, which condemns Russia's ongoing bomb production and underscores the need to stop Russia's aggression. Jonathan agrees with Reznikov's assertion that Ukraine's victory is the only path to peace.
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Rumours of Russian Mobilisation and the Potential for a Summer Offensive
31:16-35:46⏩Jonathan addresses rumours of a potential new Russian mobilisation effort following their regional elections. He cites reports suggesting Russia's plan to recruit 300,000 new soldiers. While acknowledging the potential impact of such a move, he highlights the logistical and economic challenges Russia faces in equipping and supporting such a large force. Jonathan anticipates a Ukrainian and Western response to these developments. He then analyses the potential ramifications of Russia's mobilisation, including the strain on the Russian economy, labour shortages, and the potential for internal discontent. He connects Putin's recent electoral victory, despite being "completely made up," to a perceived mandate for mobilisation. Ukrainian military officials, including Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, have suggested Russia may be preparing a 100,000-strong force for a summer offensive, further raising concerns about escalation.
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Wrap up
35:46-36:18⏩Jonathan acknowledges the overwhelming amount of military news and rapid developments, assuring viewers that ATP Geopolitics will continue to provide comprehensive coverage. He reiterates his commitment to accuracy while acknowledging his pro-Ukrainian stance.
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