Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It's just absolutely insane that people are going to be criticizing Zelensky and the Ukrainians for trying to stop Russians destroying residential buildings, bombing residential buildings and taking out Kharkiv and so on and so [forth]."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video, noting his sister's birthday. He highlights the significant Russian losses covered in the update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Reports: High Russian Losses
🎦 00:14-01:18⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff figures show substantial Russian losses, including: - 1,560 personnel (unusually high) - 15 tanks (nearly double the average) - 38 armoured personnel vehicles (double the average) - 30 artillery systems - 107 vehicles and fuel tanks - 2 pieces of special equipment - High drone and cruise missile losses Jonathan emphasizes the caveats associated with these figures, referencing the video description for further details.
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Visual Loss Confirmation with Andrew Perpetua's Data (14th-16th November)
🎦 01:19-04:42⏩
Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss data for 14th-16th November, noting he will cover the 14th and 15th in a separate video. 16th November Losses:
- Russian: Primarily civilian equipment, ATVs, and trucks, highlighting Russia's use of such vehicles as combat assets due to shortages of APCs and IFVs.
- Ukrainian: Significant losses, but mostly surveillance and communications equipment. Additional losses include two tanks (T-72, T-64), some BMPs, a few APCs and MRAPs, trucks, an ATV, and civilian vehicles.
Jonathan points out that overall combat asset losses for both sides are lower compared to previous days.
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Anti-Drone Warfare Footage: Russian Net-Dropping Drone Downs Ukrainian Counterpart
🎦 04:42-05:31⏩
Jonathan presents footage of a Russian net-dropping drone engaging a Ukrainian drone of the same type. The Russian drone successfully drops its net, capturing and downing the Ukrainian drone.
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The Intensity of the Conflict: A Pockmarked Landscape
🎦 05:31-05:56⏩
Jonathan draws attention to the heavily cratered landscape visible in the video, a stark reminder of the volume of artillery, bombs, and mortars used in the conflict.
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Russia: Hospital Fire in Yekaterinburg
🎦 05:57-06:46⏩
A major fire engulfs a hospital in Yekaterinburg, Russia. While unrelated to the war, the fire is significant, with people jumping from windows to escape. Approximately 300 square metres were affected, and 350 people were evacuated.
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Russian Missile Stockpiles & Recent Attacks
🎦 06:46-11:41⏩
Jonathan analyses recent Russian missile attacks, specifically their frequency and potential stockpile depletion. He uses Dell's data on intercepted cruise missiles, noting these aren't the total number fired. Key Observations:
- A significant gap between major missile attacks suggests Russia has been stockpiling.
- Uncertainty remains about their ability to produce enough missiles for sustained, frequent attacks.
- Concerns expressed about potential weekly strikes until the US presidential inauguration.
Recent Attack Data:
- 16th November: A large attack with many intercepted missiles.
- 17th November: Fewer missiles and drones used.
- Only 11 Shahid drones (the lowest in a long time), all intercepted (8 shot down, 3 suppressed by electronic warfare).
- 3 missiles (2 Iskander-M's, 1 KH-59-69), none shot down, possibly hitting Sumy.
- Sumy Strikes:
- 8 dead, over 60 injured initially, rising to 11 dead (including children aged 9 and 14) and 68 injured.
- Likely a ballistic missile (potentially North Korean) hit residential buildings.
- The city was left without power due to attacks on critical infrastructure.
- Jonathan expresses frustration with individuals defending Russia and criticising US responses while remaining silent on attacks like those on Sumy. He highlights the hypocrisy of condemning Ukraine's use of ATACMS while supporting similar actions by Israel against Iran.
Russian Drone Developments & Ukrainian Countermeasures
🎦 11:41-15:19⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian drone tactics, Ukrainian responses, and a specific Ukrainian success story. Russian Drones:
- Use of "Gubera" decoy drones (resembling Shahid drones) to overload Ukrainian air defenses.
- These decoys are based on a Chinese model aircraft by Skywalker Tech Co. Ltd.
- The main Shahid drone production facility is in Alabuga, previously hit by Ukrainian drones. Jonathan speculates about future Ukrainian strikes on this crucial, but likely well-defended site.
- Russia assembles drones in Alabuga using Chinese kits and electronics sourced from 18 Western countries.
Ukrainian Success:
- A former kindergarten teacher, Natalia Krabarchuk, successfully downs a Russian KH-101 cruise missile with an Igla MANPADS.
- Jonathan highlights her transition from teaching phonics to operating air defenses as a powerful symbol of Ukrainian resilience.
Kremenchuk Hydroelectric Power Station:
- Targeted again by Russia during the recent airstrikes.
- Jonathan criticises those who condone this destruction while condemning Ukraine's use of long-range missiles.
- He points out the difficulty of destroying such a station without a major explosion.
Ukrainian F-16s in Action & Potential for More
🎦 15:19-17:57⏩
Ukrainian F-16s were successfully deployed against Russian attacks a few nights ago, intercepting approximately 10 targets. While the exact number of operational F-16s is unclear, their effectiveness is evident. Jonathan cites Jane's, who argues that with only eight F-16s, Ukraine achieved significant interceptions, emphasizing the potential impact of having 100 such aircraft. He highlights the availability of thousands of F-16s in NATO countries and points to the training bottleneck as the main obstacle to a larger Ukrainian F-16 fleet.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes Inside Russia & Russian Claims of Interception
🎦 17:57-19:49⏩
Jonathan reviews reports of Ukrainian drone activity inside Russia, primarily in the Bryansk region and Moscow region.
- Tim White reports on loud activity in parts of Russia attributed to drones.
- The Kremlin claims to have shot down 26 drones in Bryansk and another in Moscow, with video purportedly showing one interception.
- Later, Russian claims increase to 59 Ukrainian drones downed overnight, including two over Moscow and 45 over Bryansk.
- Jonathan expresses skepticism about the 100% interception claim, noting that successful strikes usually occur.
Previous Ukrainian Strike (not overnight):
- Targeted a major Russian arms hub in Izhevsk, 1500km from the border.
- This first-ever strike on this hub allegedly damaged a military factory (drone production) and injured one person.
- Jonathan emphasizes the need for numerous drones to overcome air defenses and ensure successful strikes on high-value targets.
ATACMS Restrictions Lifted: Limited Strikes Authorised in Kursk
🎦 19:49-29:18⏩
Jonathan delves into the recent decision by the Biden administration to lift restrictions on ATACMS, focusing on the limited authorization for use in the Kursk region. Key Points:
- The decision is linked to the deployment of North Korean troops in Kursk, seen as a deterrent measure.
- Jonathan questions the wisdom of publicly announcing the decision and suggests allowing actions to speak for themselves.
Sources & Reporting:
- Reports from NPR, New York Times, and Axios confirm the authorization, but all emphasize the limitation to Kursk.
- The decision's motivation is to deter further North Korean troop deployments to Russia.
Analysis & Concerns:
- Jonathan doubts the deterrent effect, believing more decisive action is needed.
- He highlights the need for a large number of ATACMS to ensure effective strikes given Russia's improved interception capabilities.
- He criticizes the delay in lifting restrictions, arguing it should have happened much sooner.
- The potential for escalation with North Korea following the use of ATACMS is considered.
Reactions:
- Zelensky's response: "The missiles will speak for themselves."
- ISW (Institute for the Study of War) criticizes the limited scope, advocating for strikes on all legitimate military targets within range.
- Uncertainty remains about whether the US has blocked the use of Storm Shadow and Scalp EG missiles, despite reports suggesting potential restrictions.
International Responses:
- Venezuelan dictator Maduro condemns Zelensky and the decision, highlighting the irony of aligning with such figures when questioning US support for Ukraine.
- Hungary's Foreign Minister criticizes the US authorization.
- Elon Musk expresses concern about Russian retaliation, seemingly against the lifting of restrictions, without condemning Russian attacks on Ukraine.
- Charlie Kirk accuses Biden of trying to start World War III and argues against using US weapons to strike inside Russia.
Jonathan's Perspective:
- He emphasizes the double standards of figures like Kirk who support similar actions by Israel but condemn Ukraine.
- He underscores the hypocrisy of criticizing Ukraine while overlooking Russian aggression.
- Jonathan expresses frustration with those siding with Russia and questions their support for Ukraine.
Russian Rejection of Frozen Conflict and Proposed Peace Plans
🎦 29:18-36:37⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's response to proposed peace plans and the possibility of a frozen conflict. Key Points:
- Kremlin spokesperson Peskov rejects a frozen conflict along the front line, stating Putin's conditions for ending hostilities remain unchanged.
- Jonathan questions the genuineness of this rejection, suggesting it could be a tactic to gain concessions later.
International Perspectives:
- Turkish President Erdogan proposes freezing the front lines and delaying Ukraine's NATO membership for 10 years.
- Jonathan criticizes this and other similar proposals as favouring Russia.
- He expresses concern about the US potentially betraying Ukraine by pushing for forced negotiations.
AP Article Analysis:
- An Associated Press (AP) article offers a balanced view of the conflict, acknowledging both Russian gains and their high cost.
- The article highlights the psychological impact of Russian advances, even if territorially limited.
- It emphasizes the stalemate nature of the conflict and the reluctance of either side to negotiate.
The Impact of Trump's Election:
- The article suggests that Trump's election victory and potential for a change in US policy are driving Russia's strategy to seize as much territory as possible before potential negotiations.
- Jonathan notes the delayed US aid package under the previous Trump administration likely contributed to Ukraine's difficulties.
Reflecting on the War's Timeline:
- Jonathan provides a concise summary of the war's progression over three years: initial Russian advances, Ukrainian counteroffensives, the devastating loss of Bakhmut, and the current attritional stalemate.
- He highlights how Russia relies on allies like Iran and North Korea for military support.
- Jonathan emphasizes the immense human cost on both sides and the challenges of replacing troops as the war drags on.
The Need for Precision Strikes & The Delay in US Support
🎦 36:37-41:50⏩
Jonathan reiterates his frustration with the long delay in the US authorizing long-range strikes, which he believes could have significantly altered the war's course. Key Points:
- He argues that Ukraine's inability to precisely target Russian territory, due to restrictions on Western weapons, has prolonged the conflict.
- The recent lifting of restrictions, while welcome, is seen as too late and limited in scope.
The Current Stalemate:
- Jonathan acknowledges the difficult situation on the front lines, with high casualties and manpower shortages on both sides.
- He suggests that neither leader is willing to risk mass mobilization due to potential internal consequences.
Addressing Viewer Expectations & Balancing Personal Life
🎦 41:50-42:37⏩
Jonathan addresses viewers who expressed disappointment at his delayed breaking news update, explaining that he is a single person who needs to balance his work with a personal life. He assures viewers that he works diligently and strives to provide timely updates, but occasionally needs to take breaks.
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Wrap Up
🎦 42:37-42:37⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their understanding and support. He signs off, promising to speak to them again soon.
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