Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"You have not had anything remotely like that from Trump. That is why I would never vote for Trump. If you are talking about only being concerned with Ukraine and foreign policy, this is all you need to know as far as I'm concerned. I cannot fault what she said there. Absolutely on the point."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. This is a Ukraine War Update for 10/10/2024, and the second part of the day's videos. There is a lot to cover, and the video will be split into two parts.
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Zelensky visit to Croatia
🎦 00:16-03:39⏩
- Zelensky was in Croatia for the first time yesterday to participate in the Ukraine's Southeast Europe Summit in Dubrovnik. The summit was co-organized by Zelensky and Croatian Prime Minister Andrei Plenkovich.
- Ukraine has signed an agreement with Croatia on long-term support and cooperation.
- Zelensky also met with the prime ministers of Albania, North Macedonia, Greece and the president of Slovenia. Jonathan points out that this is an example of how visiting one country doesn't mean dealing with just one country.
- Jonathan describes Zelensky as the "hardest working politician" he thinks has ever lived and praises him for the phenomenal amount of work he does, meeting people all the time despite the invasion of his country.
- Jonathan muses that Zelensky's height may contribute to him being psychologically less threatening to other leaders.
Zelensky to visit Rome
🎦 03:39-04:19⏩
- Zelensky is set to visit Rome for a meeting with Prime Minister Giorgio Maloney, and will also have an audience with the Pope tomorrow morning.
- Jonathan believes Zelensky is probably going to the UK today and then hopping to Italy - two countries in one day.
Zelensky to meet UK, Germany, Italy and France leaders
🎦 04:19-07:53⏩
- Zelensky is set to meet with the leaders of the UK, Germany, Italy and France today.
- He may be going to each of these countries individually. Jonathan describes the schedule as "insane" and comments on Zelensky's "indefatigable" nature.
- Zelensky was welcomed at No. 10 this morning by Keir Starmer (UK Prime Minister).
- Jonathan wonders whether Zelensky's smaller stature and former career as a comedian means that world leaders are more comfortable with him than they might be if he were taller and less approachable.
- Youtube user Tim White comments: "President Zelensky arrived in London this morning. He was welcomed at number 10 by Keir Starmer and will also meet, God, who knew, Mark Rutter, the new NATO chief. Zelensky will want to know why the UK is not yet allowed long-range strikes inside Russia when the US seemed to allow it."
- Jonathan points out that Tim White is wrong about this and it is the US that is holding back long-range strikes, not the UK.
- Jonathan expands on his earlier point that Zelensky has engendered a strong response from the international community. He wonders whether the level of support Zelensky has received is due to him being who he is, as well as being the leader of Ukraine. He wonders whether Poroshenko would have had the same level of international support.
EU MEPs censure of Orban
🎦 07:53-13:08⏩
- Jonathan picks up from where he left off in his previous videos - MEPs criticizing Orban.
- In a speech in the EU Parliament, Moritz Körner, a German MEP, calls Viktor Orban a "useful idiot of Russia and China".
- Körner lists a series of accusations against Orban:
- ruling by emergency decree
- inviting Chinese police to surveil people in Hungary
- letting Russian spies into the Schengen system
- driving European competitors out of Hungary
- turning Hungary into a "banana republic"
- enriching his family and friends
- Körner calls on Orban to step down to "make Hungary great again".
- Another MEP defends Orban, saying that the attacks on Orban are not connected to the Hungarian presidency. Körner argues that they are connected, stating that Hungary is violating EU fundamental principles and that Orban should not hold the rotating presidency.
- Valerie Heyer, a French MEP, accuses Orban of not being used to accountability and launches into a five minute speech taking him to task.
EU approves €35bn in macro-financial aid to Ukraine
🎦 13:08-15:07⏩
- Despite Hungary's attempts to block a €35bn loan underwritten by frozen Russian assets and the extension of sanctions, the EU has approved up to €35bn in macro-financial aid for Ukraine, alongside a loan mechanism supporting €45bn in loans from the EU and G7. Jonathan is not clear on Hungary's position on this but will look into it.
Austria warned about Russia
🎦 15:07-16:04⏩
- A reminder about Austria's neutrality and how in 2016 Austrian military leaders met with Russian officials in Moscow.
- The Austrians claimed that they didn't discuss sanctions, but Russia published the recordings proving that they did. This is a warning that those meeting with Russia shouldn't trust Russia.
Ramstein meeting cancelled
🎦 16:04-17:38⏩
- The Ramstein meeting, which was due to take place in two days' time, has been cancelled and rescheduled for an unknown time.
- Jonathan initially believes it was cancelled because of the upcoming US elections.
- Several Youtube users commented that it was due to the hurricane in Florida and Jonathan acknowledges that it would have been terrible optics for Biden to have attended, especially in the middle of an election campaign.
Ukraine seeking NATO membership
🎦 17:38-19:28⏩
- Ukraine is seeking NATO membership as part of its plan to end the war.
- It is reported that a "West Germany" model is being discussed, involving a freezing of the front lines.
- Jonathan explains that Ukraine's plan may be to get to a position of strength in the war, declare that they will be joining NATO and negotiate a peace deal with Russia based on that.
- Polish farmers have resumed their blockade of the Ukrainian border at one crossing. The blockade will continue until 31st December. Jonathan says that this hurts Ukrainian exports and transportation between countries.
Dutch Banks release €560 million in Russian assets
🎦 19:28-21:07⏩
- Dutch banks have released €560 million in Russian assets due to sanction loopholes, despite a previous announcement that these would be frozen.
- After the invasion, Western nations froze €300bn of Russian assets, with €191bn held in Euroclear under Belgium's oversight. Despite discussions about using these funds for Ukraine's defense and reconstruction, no action has been taken.
- The unfreezing occurred because of loopholes relating to incomplete payments and distancing of sanctioned owners from companies.
- Dutch publication RTL reported that two companies who had €430 million unfrozen share a single Russian owner. The assets were released following implementation of mechanisms to ensure that the sanctioned owner does not have influence over these companies or access to the funds.
Turkey reiterates support for Ukraine's territorial integrity
🎦 21:07-22:09⏩
- Erdogan's advisor has stated that Turkey supports the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, and is advocating the return of occupied territories, including Crimea.
- Jonathan notes that Turkey is currently trying to join BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) alongside other countries. Turkey is already a member of NATO and has wanted to join the EU but this is on hold at the moment. He comments that Erdogan appears to be "talking out of both sides of his mouth".
Scholz open to talks with Putin
🎦 22:09-22:54⏩
- Olaf Scholz is ready for talks with Putin if this will lead to peace, according to a German official.
- Jonathan points out that any discussions need to include Ukraine, citing Kamala Harris.
- Jonathan highlights Trump's history of attempting to make unilateral decisions and bypass the US when it comes to international relations.
Turkey blocks Discord
🎦 22:54-24:02⏩
- Turkey has followed Russia in blocking Discord, according to their Justice Minister.
- Jonathan reported earlier that Russian forces were annoyed that Russia had blocked Discord as they used it to communicate.
- Youtube user yakov yanovsky commented: "i remember discord being used by some russian unit hq so this might inconvenience them a bit"
- The decision to block Discord was made following an investigation which found it was being used for extortion, propaganda, violence and sexual harassment.
Russian Coal Industry collapsing
🎦 24:02-32:22⏩
- The Moscow Times (the exiled Russian outlet) has reported that Russia's coal mining industry is in its worst crisis for 30 years and is collapsing.
- Youtube user Prune60 comments: "The worst crisis in 30 years, Russia's coal mining industry begins to collapse, says Moscow Times, the exiled Russian outlet. The worst crisis in 30 years. Okay, there are several things I want to point out about this situation, says Prune60, often talks about logistics like this. First of all, this isn't a surprise but rather a series of events that are leading to this outcome but as it falls I want to give you some things to think about because it's possible it will lead to unexpected outcomes everywhere in Russia."
- Jonathan highlights points from a long thread by Prune60:
- Russian Railways has been unable to provide shipping capacity for coal companies.
- The system is overloaded. This has led to a shutdown in production.
- Years ago, Russian Railways (a monopoly) eliminated their maintenance department, resulting in locomotives not being properly maintained.
- Around half of Russian locomotives are over 20 years old and parts are no longer made, meaning they take longer to repair.
- Maintenance staff are overloaded.
- Russia is purchasing new locomotives, but this is not happening fast enough to keep up with the problems.
- Jonathan shows a pie chart showing that coal transportation makes up a large proportion of what Russian Railways transports.
- The Russian government is basing its energy strategy on a constant increase in coal production (from 438 million tons per year currently to 482 million tons in 2030 and 556 million in 2050), but this does not seem realistic given the problems with Russian Railways.
- The Ministry of Finance is struggling to find funds to pay for the war. In 2023, they imposed a one-time tax, taxed Gazprom heavily, and nationalised a number of companies trading in Russia. The government also took all the profits from agriculture, a sector which was already struggling.
- Jonathan notes that Tarot has become popular in Russian businesses.
- In addition to duties imposed by Russia, Russian coal also has duties imposed by China. Coal from countries such as Australia does not have to pay duties in China as it has free trade agreements, meaning that Russian coal is less profitable.
- High transportation costs are a huge expense for coal and coal producers are stuck with the limitations and costs of Russian Railways.
- Prune60 states that the coal industry is in a bad situation and likely to get worse.
- Coal is a keystone species in the Russian economy, if it collapses, large areas of Russia could experience accelerated depopulation. Kemerovo Oblast is a huge coal mining region, if people leave, they are unlikely to return and it will be difficult to rebuild the industry.
- If Kemerovo Oblast becomes unpopulated, Putin may lose control of it, which shows how important coal is to the Russian economy.
- If the coal industry collapses, it will free up capacity on the railways, but this will exacerbate existing problems with Russian Railways, who are struggling with a shrinking shipping capability.
- Jonathan warns that the Russian economy could tank faster than Russian Railways' loading capacity.
- The collapse of the Russian coal industry will have far reaching consequences for Russia as it is so important to the country.
Unilever exits Russian market
🎦 32:22-33:10⏩
- Unilever has exited the Russian market after 2.5 years, divesting all of its Russian entities. Jonathan comments that Unilever is a massive company with "fingers in lots of pies".
British Citizen used by Russia to purchase tankers to circumvent sanctions
🎦 33:10-33:56⏩
- A Financial Times investigation has found that Russia used a British citizen, John Olmrod, to purchase 25 oil tankers in order to circumvent sanctions. This has earned £7.4 billion for Putin's war machine.
- Jonathan praises the FT for their investigative reporting and highlights that this is why we need to support mainstream media.
US Politics and the Ukraine War
🎦 33:56-58:56⏩
- Jonathan moves on to discuss US politics and the implications for Ukraine and Russia.
- Bob Woodward's new book, Rage, reveals that Donald Trump secretly sent Covid-19 tests (the actual testing machines) to Putin in 2020 when they were in short supply in the US. Putin asked Trump to keep this a secret.
- The book also claims that after leaving office, Trump called Putin 7 times, including one call in early 2024. This could be a contravention of the Logan Act.
- Woodward describes Trump as "the most reckless president" and considers him unfit for re-election.
- Kamala Harris criticized Trump for sending the tests to Putin.
- Jonathan plays an excerpt from Kamala Harris' appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. He describes her rhetoric with regard to Ukraine, Putin and other dictators as excellent. She is not afraid to call these people murderers.
- Jonathan praises Harris' strong words, arguing that they are genuine and not simply performative.
- He then goes on to criticize those Americans who would choose Putin over Kamala Harris, playing a clip of an interview where an American woman tells a reporter that she would rather vote for Putin.
- Jonathan describes the woman's answers as "problematic", highlighting her reliance on sources such as Dan Bongino for news.
- Kamala Harris was questioned on 60 Minutes about Ukraine's NATO membership, but failed to answer.
- Jonathan plays a clip from an interview where a man, who is speaking on behalf of Kamala Harris, answers questions about the 60 Minutes interview. The interviewer pushes for Harris to make her position clear, but the man does not commit.
- Jonathan broadly agrees with Harris' approach, arguing that it's better to keep some issues out of the public sphere while discussions are ongoing.
- Christopher Steele's new book reveals that he felt disturbed and afraid for democracy after the 2016 election as he felt that his warnings about Trump's links to Russia had gone unheeded.
- He reveals that he tried to warn the FBI and the public about Trump and Russia but failed.
- Steele visited Charles Farr, the Chair of the British Joint Intelligence Committee, who circulated a summary of his findings to key people in the government, including senior officials and ministers.
- Steele says that Theresa May chose to "sit on the information" to avoid alienating the incoming president.
- He shares that an impeccable source told him that Trump had taken documents about British naval secrets to Mar-a-Lago.
- He also says that the British government knew of links between Trump and Moscow before the 2016 election.
- Steele claims that Trump shared top secret intelligence with Sergei Lavrov, which led to the death of an Israeli asset who had been working inside ISIS.
- He criticizes May's decision to stay close to Trump as "cowardly" and irresponsible".
- Timothy Ash, writing for Chatham House, describes J.D. Vance's neutrality position on Ukraine as misguided, and argues that it will only pave the way for Russia's next invasion.
- Jonathan concludes that if you are only concerned with Ukraine and foreign policy, there is only one choice to make in the upcoming US election - Kamala Harris. He says that in order to support Trump, you would have to mentally gerrymander your brain, distorting reality.
Wrap up
🎦 58:56-59:00⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I was unable to find more information about the €35bn loan underwritten by frozen Russian assets or whether Hungary has now approved this.
Could you please clarify the exact rules regarding the Logan Act?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a multi-part video which requires careful reading of the transcript to separate into granular topic areas. The video is about Geopolitics so is likely to be split by country.
Step 1: Extract the title, date and part from the youtube title - this will be straightforward.
Step 2: Work through the transcript to create the topic titles. This is a long transcript so will require concentration to ensure the titles are specific and quantified - better to have too many topics than too few.
Step 3: Identify the topic timeframes once I've finished Step 2 to ensure I haven't missed anything.
Step 4: Write the topic summaries, including all relevant context/analysis/opinions offered by Jonathan and taking care to correct errors (especially Ukrainian spellings)
Step 5: Identify a good quote.
Step 6: Review the task to see if there was anything I did not understand and record this.
